PURSUE Release 03 — Project Blue Book Special Report No. 14 (CIA-UAP-015)
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SJ SPECIAL REPORT N0.14
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(ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OB1ECTS)
PROJECT NO. 10073
5 MAY 1955
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AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE CENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE OHIO
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PROJECT BLUE BOOK
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SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14
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(ANALYSIS OF REPORTS OF UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL OBJECTS)
PROJECT NO. 10073
5 MAY 1955
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FOR OffIC!Al USt ONlY (AFR 190-16)
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AIR TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE GENTER WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE
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No copyright materiel ls contained In this publication,
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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SUMMARY. INTRODUCTION ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DATA
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REDUCTION OF DATA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM
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Questionnaire . Coding System and Work Sheet Identification of Working Papers. Evaluation of Individual Reports
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ANALYSIS OF THE DATA. Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics Graphical Presentation . Advanced Study of the Data Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer Statistical Chi Square Test The “Flying Saucer” Model
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16 16 16 60 76
CONCLUSIONS
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APPENDIX A. TABULATION OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS
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APPENDIX B.
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WORKING PAPER FORMS LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure l
Frequency of Sightings by Year for Object, Unit, and All Sightings
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Figure 2
Distribution of Evaluations of Object, Unit, and All Sightings for All Years
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Figure 3
Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years With Comparisons of Each Year for Each Evaluation Group •
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Figure 4
Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for All Years and Each Year
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Figure 5
Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation Within Months for All Years
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Figure 6
Distribution of Object Sightings by Certain and Doubtful Evaluations for All Years and Each Year •
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Frequency of Object Sightings and Unknown Object Evaluations by Months, 1947-1952.
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Distribution of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups With Evaluation Distributions for Each Group .
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Distribution of Object Sightings Among the Four Sighting Reliability Groups for All Years and Each Year .
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Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10 Distribution of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, Segregated by Military and Civilian Observers, With Evaluation Distribution for Each Segregation
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Figure 11 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Colors of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Color Group •
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Figure 12 Distribution of Object Sightings by Number of Objects Seen per Sighting With Evaluation Distribution for Each Group
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Figure 13 Distribution of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting With Evaluation Distribution for Each Duration Group .
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) Page Figure 14 Distribution of Object Sightings by Months Among the Eight Duration Groups for All Years
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Figure 15 Distribution of Object Sightings by Shape of Object(s) Reported With Evaluation Distribution for Each Shape Group ,
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Figure 16 Distribution of Object Sightings by Reported Speed of Object(s) With Evaluation Distribution for Each Speed Group .
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Figure 17 Distribution of All Sightings by Observer Location for All Years and Each Year
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Figure 18 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Color, 1947-1952
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Figure 19 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Number of Objects per Sighting, 1947-1952
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Figure 20 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Speed, 1947-1952
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Figure 21 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Duration, 1947-1952
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Figure 22 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Shape, 1947-1952
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Figure 23 Comparison of Known and Unknown Object Sightings by Light Brightness, 1947-1952
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Figure 24 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Astronomical Versus Total Object Sightings Less Astronomical.
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Figure 25 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Aircraft Versus Total Object Sightings Less Aircraft
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Figure 26 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Balloon Versus Total Object Sightings Less Balloon,
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Figure 27 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Insufficient Information Versus Total Object Sightings Less Insufficient Information
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Figure 28 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Other Versus Total Object Sightings Less Other
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Figure 29 Comparison of Monthly Distribution of Object Sightings Evaluated as Unknown Versus Total Object Sightings Less Unknown
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Figure 30 Characteristics Profiles of Object Sightings by Total Sample, Known Evaluations, and Individual Known Evaluations, With Unknown Evaluations Superimposed ,
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Figure 31
Frequency of Object, Unit, and All Sightings Within the U. S., 1947-1952, by Subdivisions of One Degree of Latitude and Longitude
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Figure 32 Distribution of Object Sightings by Evaluation for the Twelve Regional Areas of the U. S., With the Strategic Areas Located
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Figure 33 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region
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Figure 34 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region
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Figure 35 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region
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Figure 36 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region .
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Figure 37 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued)
Figure 38 Comparison of Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region .
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Figure 39 Diagram of a Celestial Sphere.
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Figure 40 Frequency of Object Sightings by Angle of Elevation of the Sun, Intervals of 10 Degrees of Angle.
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Figure 41 Frequency of Object Sightings by Local Sun Time, Intervals of One Hour
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Table
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Object Sightings
Table
II Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color
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Table
III Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number
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Table
IV Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape
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Table
V Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Duration of Observation
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Table
VI Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed
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Table VII Chi Square Test of Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Light Brightness
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Table VIII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Color
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Table
IX Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Number.
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Table
X Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Shape
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Table
XI Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Duration of Ob~ervation
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Table XII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Speed
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Table XIII Chi Square Test of Revised Knowns Versus Unknowns on the Basis of Light Brightness.
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SUMMARY Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly termed “flying saucers” or “flying discs”) have been received by the U.S. Air Force since mid-1947 from’ many and diverse sources. Although there was no evidence that the ·unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted a threat to the security of the U.S., the Air Force determined that all rep,orts of unidentified aerial objects should be fovestigated and evaluated to d,etermine if “flying saucers”. represented technological developments not known to this country. In order to discover any pertinent trend or pattern inherent in the data, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, appropriate methods of reducing these data from reports of unidentified aerial objects to a form amenable to scientific’ appraisal were employed. In general, the original data upon which this study was based consisted of impressions and interpretations of apparently unexplainable events, and seldom contained reliable measurements of physical attributes. This subjectivity of the data presented a ‘major limitation to the drawing of significant conclusions, but did not invalidate the application of scientific methods bf study. The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unidentified aerial objects were reduced to IBM punched-card abstracts of the data by means of logically developed forms and standardized evaluation procedures. Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of the data for statistical treatment, consisted of an appraisal of the reports and· the subsequent categorization of the object or objects described in each report. A detailed description of this phase of the study stresses the careful attempt to maintain complete objectivity and consistency. Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived from the original reports of sightings consisted of (I) a systematic attempt to ferret out any distinguishing characteristics _inherent in the data of any of their segments, (2) a concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and (3) an attempt to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observa.:. tions of technological’ developments not known to this country. The first step in the ‘analysis of the data revealed the existence of certain apparent similarities between cases of objects definitely identified .i.nd those not identified. Statistical methods of testing when applied indicated a low probability that these apparent similarities were significant. An attempt to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS represeri’ted observations of technological developments not known to this country necessi tated a thorough re-examination and re-evaluation of the cases of objects not originally identified; this led to the conclusion that this probability was very small. The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide the study group with a complete set of files, the informatio~ cut-off date was established as of the end of 1952. It will accordingly be noted that the statistics contained in all charts and tables in this report are terminated
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with the year 1952.
In these charts, 3201 cases have been used.
As the study progressed, a constant program was maintained for the purpose of making comparisons between the current cases received after I January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done in order that any change or significant trend which might arise from current developments could be incorporated in the summary of this report. The 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of increasing percentages in the finally identified categories. They also.show decreasing percentages in categories where there was insufficient informa tion and those where the phenomena could not be explained. This trend had been:. anticipated in the light of improved reporting and investigating pro ceduJ;“es. Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these, 425 were produced in 1953 and 429 in 195’!. These 1953 and 1954 indi vidual reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the same basis as were those received before the end of 1952. The results are as follows: Balloons
- 16%
Aircraft
- 20%
Astronomical
- 25%
Other
- 13% 1 7%
Insufficient Info Unknown
- 9%
As the study of the current cases progressed, it became increasingly obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further improved, the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient information and those remaining unexplained would be greatly reduced. The key to a higher percentage of solutions appeared to be in rapid “on the spot” investigations by trained personnel. On the basis of this, a revised program was established by AF Reg. 200-2 Subject: “Unidentified Flying Objects Reporting” (Short Title: UFOB) dated 12 August 1954. This new program, which had begun to show marked results before January 1955, provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service’ Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations. This squadron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to arrive “on the spot” within a very short time after a report is received. After treatment by the 4602d AISS, all information is supplied to the Air Technical Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative program has re sulted, since 1 January 1955, in reducing the insufficient information cases to 7o/o and the unknown cases to 3%, of the totals. The period l January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for 131 unidentified aerial object reports received. Evaluation percentages of these are as follows:
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Balloons
- 26%
Aircraft
- 21%
Astronomical
- 23%
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Other
20%
Insufficient Info -
7%
Unknown
3%
All available data were included in this study which was prepared by a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis of this study it is believed that all the unidentified aerial objects could have been explained if more complete observational data had been available. Insofar as the reported aerial objects which still remain unexplained are concerned, there exists little information other than the impressions and interpretations of their observers. As these impressions and interpretations have been replaced by the use of improved methods of investigation and reporting, and ,by scientific analysis, the number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly towards the vanishing point. Therefore, on the b_asis of this evaluation of the information, it is considered to be highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technological developments outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge. It is emphasized that there has been a complete lack of any valid evidence of physical ‘matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object.
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INTRODUCTION
In June, 1947, Kenneth Arnold, a Boise, Idaho, businessman and private pilot, publicly reported the now-famous sighting of a chainlike formation of disc-shaped objects near Mount Rainier, Washington. Result ing newspaper publicity of this incident caught the public interest, and, shortly thereafter, a rash of reports of unidentified aerial objects spawned the term “flying saucers”. During the years since 1947, many reports of unidentified aerial objects have been received by the Air Force from many and diverse sources. The unfortunate term “flying saucer”, or “flying disc”, because of its widespread and indiscriminate use, requires definition. Many defini tions have been offered, one of the best being that originated by Dr. J. Allen Hynek, Director of the Emerson McMillin Observatory of The Ohio State University, who has taken a scientific interest in_the problem of unidentified aerial objects since 1949. Dr. Hynek’ s definition of the term is “any aerial phenomenon or sighting that remains unexplained to the viewer at least long enough for him to write a report about it 11 ( 1). Dr. Hynek, elaborating on his definition, says, “Each flying saucer, so defined, has associated with it a probable lifetime. It wanders in the field of public in spection like an electron in a field of ions, until I captured’ by an explana tion which puts an end to its existence as a I flying saucer’ 11 ( 1). This definition would be applicable to any and all of the sightings which remained unidentified throughout this study. However, the term “flying saucers” shall be used hereafter in this report to mean a novel, airborne phenomenon, a manifestation that is not a part of or readily ex plainable by the fund of scientific knowledge known to be possessed by the Free World. This would include such items as natural phenomena that are not yet completely understood, psychological phenomena, or intruder air craft of a type that may be possessed by some source in large enough numbers so that more than one independent mission may have been flown and reported. Thus, these phenomena are of the type which should have been observed and reported more than once. Since 1947, public interest in the subject of unidentified aerial objects fluctuated more or less within reasonable limits until the summer of 1952, when the frequency of reports of sightings reached a peak, possibly stimu lated by several articles on the subject in leading popular magazines. Early in 1952, the Air Force’s cumulative study and analysis of reported sightings indicated that the majority of reports could be accounted for as misinterpretations of known objects ( such as meteors, balloons, or aircraft), a few as the result of mild hysteria, and a very few as the result of unfamiliar meteorological phenomena and light aberrations. However, (1) Hynek, J. A.• “Unusual Aerial Phenomena”• Journal of the Optical Society of America. 43 (4). pp 311-314, April, 1953.
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a significant number of fairly complete reports by reliable observers re mained unexplained. Although no evidence existed that unexplained reports of sightings constituted_ a 1>hysical threat to the security of the U. S., in March, 1952, the Air Force decided that all reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated to determine if “flying saucers” represented technological developments not known to this country. Originally, the problem involved the preparation and analysis of about 1,300 reports accumulated by the Air Force between 1947 and the end of March, 1952. During the course of the work, the number of reports sub mitted for analysis and evaluation more than tripled, the result of the un precedented increase in observations during 1952. Accordingly, this study is based on a number of reports considered to be large enough for a pre liminary statistical analysis, approximately 4, 000 reports. This study was undertaken primarily to categorize the available reports of sightings and to determine the probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of “flying saucers”. With full cognizance of the quality of the data available for study, yet with an awareness of the proportions this subject has assumed at times in the public mind, this work was undertaken with all the seriousness accorded to a straightforward scientific investigation. In order to establish the probability that any of the reports of unidentified aerial objects represented observations of “flying saucers”, it was necessary to make an attempt to answer the question “What is a ‘flying saucer’?“. However, it must be emphasized that this was only incidental to the primary purpose of the study, the determination of the probability that any of the reports of un identified aerial objects represented observations of “flying saucers”, as defined on Page 1. The basic technique for this study consisted of reducing the available data to a form suitable for mechanical manipulation, a prerequisite for the application of preliminary statistical methods .. One of International Business Machine Corporation’s systems was chosen as the best available mechanical equipment. The reduction of data contained in sighting reports into a form suit able for transfer to IBM punched cards was extremely difficult and time consuming. For this study a panel of consultants was formed, consisting of both experts within and outside A TIC. During the course of the work, guidance and advice were received from the panel. The professional experience available from the panel covered major scientific fields and numerous specialized fields. All records and working papers of this study have been carefully preserved in an orderly fashion suitable for ready reference. These
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records include condensations of all individual sighting reports, and the IBM cards used in various phases of the study.
ORIGIN AND NATURE OF DA TA
Reports of sightings were received by the U. S. Air Force from a representative cross section of the population of the U. S., and varied widely in completeness and quality. Included were reports from reputable scientists, housewives, farmers, students, and technically trained mem bers of the Armed Forces. Reports varied in length from a few sentences stating that a “flying saucer” had been sighted, to those containing thou sands of words, including description, speculation, and advice on how to handle the “problem of the I flying saucers 1 ” . Some reports were of high quality, conservative, and as complete as the observer could make them; a few originated from people confined to mental institutions. A critical examination of the reports revealed, however, that a high percentage of them was submitted by serious people, mystified by what they had seen and motivated by patriotic responsibility. Three principal sources of reports were noted in the preliminary review of the data. The bulk of the data arrived at A TIC through regular military channels, from June, 1947, until the middle of 1952. A second type of data consisted of letters reporting sightings sent by civilian observers directly to A TIC. Most of these direct communications were dated subsequent to April 30, 1952, and are believed to be the result of a suggestion by a popular magazine that future reports be directed to the Air Technical Intelligence Center. As could be expected, a large number of letters was received following this publicity. A third type of data was that contained in questionnaire forms com pleted by the observer himself. A questionnaire form, developed during the course of this study, was mailed by A TIC to a selected group of writers of direct letters with the request that the form be completed and returned. Approximately 1,000 responses were received by ATIC. In general, the data were subjective, consisting of qualified estimates of physical characteristics rather than of precise measurements. Further more, most of the reports were not reduced to written form immediately. The time between sighting and report varied from one day to several years. Both of these factors introduced an element of doubt concerning the validity o,f the original data, and increased its subjectivity. This was intensified by the recognized inability of the average individual to estimate speeds, dis tances, and sizes of objects in the air with any degree of accuracy. In spite of these limitations, methods of statistical analysis of such reports m sufficiently large groups are valid. The danger lies in the possibility of 3
forgetting the subjectivity of the data at the time that conclusions are drawn from the analysis. It must be emphasized, again and again, that any conclusions contained in this report are based NOT on facts, but on what many observers thought and estimated the true facts to be. Altogether, the data for this study consisted of approximately 4, 000 reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. The majority were :re ceived through military channels or in the form of observer-completed questionnaires; a few were accepted in the form of direct letters from un -questionably reliable sources. Sightings made between June, 1947, and December, 1952, were considered for this study. Sightings alleged to have occurred prior to 1947 were not considered, since they were not reported to official sources until after public interest in “flying saucers” had been stimulated by the popular press.
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The plan for reduction of the data to usable form consisted of a pro gram of development comprising four major steps: ( 1) a systematic listing of the factors necessary to evaluate the observer and his report, and to identify the unknown object observed; (2) a standard scheme for the trans fer of data to a mechanized computation system; (3) an orderly means of relating the original data to_ all subsequent forms; and ( 4} a consistent pro cedure for the identification of the phenomenon described by the original data.
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Questionnaire
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REDUCTION OF DA TA TO MECHANIZED COMPUTATION FORM
As received by the Air Technical Intelligence Center, the sighting reports were not in a form suitable for even a quasi-scientific study. A preliminary review of the data indicated the need for standardized interro gation procedures and supplemental forms for the reduction of currently held and subsequently acquired data to a form amenable to scientific appraisal.
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The first reports received by A TIC varied widely in completeness and quality. Air Force Letter 200-5(2} and Air Force Form 112( 1) were attempts to fix responsibility for and improve the quality of the reports of sightings. To coordinate past efforts and to provide standardization for the (1) A modified Air Force Form 112 lists pertinent questions to be answered in regard to an unidentified-object sighting. (2) Air Force Letter 200-5 places responsibility with the Air Force for the investigation, reporting, and analysis of unidentified aerial objects. This letter is dated 29 April 1952.
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future, it was imperative to develop a questionnaire form listing the factors necessary for evaluation of the observer and his report, and identification of the unknown objects. In addition, it was decided that such a questionnaire should be designed to serve as an interrogator’s guide, and as a form for the observer himself to complete when personal interrogation was not possi ble or practicable. Ideally, a questionnaire for the purposes required should contain questions pertaining to all technical details considered to be essential for the statistical approach, and should serve to obtain a maximum of informa tion from the average individual who had made a sighting in the past or would be likely to be reporting sightings in the future. Besides these ~is crete facts, an integrated written description of a sighting would be re quired, thus enabling the reported facts of the sighting to be corroborated. Also, a narrative description might allow subtle questions to be answered concerning the observer’s ability, such as indirect questions that would reveal his reasoning ability, suggestibility, and general mental attitude. As a whole, then, the information contained in a questionnaire should make possible the classification and evaluation of the sighting, the rating of the observer, the probability of accuracy of reported facts, and the identifica tion of what was reported by the observer as unidentified. During the course of this project, three questionnaire forms were developed, each intended to be an improved revision of the one preceding. The improvements were suggested and confirmed by members of the panel of consultants connected with this project. The original form was evolved by the panel of consultants as their first work on this project. It was intended to allow the start of the reduc tion of reports to discrete data, and was immediately subjected to exten sive review and revision by the panel. The revised ( second) form was subjected to a trial test before adoption. A TIC sent a copy to observers reporting sightings, with the request that the form be completed and re turned. Of the first 300 questionnaires returned during July and August, 1952, 168 were analyzed by a consulting psychologist. On the basis of this analysis, plus the experience gained in working with past reports, the final form of the questionnaire - the U. S. Air Force Technical Information Sheet - was evolved. Copies of the three forms of the questionnaire, in the order of their development, are shown as Exhibits BI, B2, and B3 in Appendix B. In order to implement the transcription of data from past sighting reports, each succeeding form was put to use as soon as it was developed and approved. Accordingly, experience was obtained with each form in relation to past data, an important factor in the improvement of the quality and completeness of the later reports included in this study.
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Coding System and Work Sheet
The reduction of non-numerical data to numerical form is mandatory in the machine handling of data. Thus, the selection of the IBM punched card system for analysis of data forced the adoption of a master coding plan. Since it was impracticable to transfer detailed data of a~ exact nature from the questionnaire to the IBM card, an intermediate transfer form, coordinated with the master code, was necessary. The master coding plan was evolved during the early stages of the preli~inary analysis of data, and was reviewed by the panel of consultants before use. It was recognized that this system of coding would be the heart of the analysis, that is, the completeness of the facility for trans lation of data could make or break the study. Accordingly, every conceiv able factor that might influence the identification of unidentified aerial objects was included, together with a wide range of variations within each factor. The original coding system (with minor corrections) was used throughout the translation of the original data with marked success. A copy of this system, called CODES, is enclosed as Exhibit IH, Appendix B. To facilitate the preparation of the punched-card abstract, an inter mediate form called the WORK SHEET (later, the CARD BIBLE) was developed. Referenced to both the data from the questionnaire and the sys tem of report identification, the WORK SHEET permitted an orderly transcription of data simultaneously by several people. In conjunction with the CODES, the WORK SHEET was used during the reduction of the original data to code form necessary for transfer to punched cards. A sample is included as Exhibit BS, Appendix B. After the analysis was under way, it became apparent that the me chanics of machine processing could be improved by incorporating in the IBM card system group classifications of certain factors requiring more than one column for discrete expression. In addition, the inclusion of certain data relating to the evaluation and bearing of the sun with respect to the observer was considered necessary. Finally, a critical examination of certain segments of the data indicated the need for the definition of a new factor relating to the maneuvers of the object or objects sighted. Prior to the start of the analytical study, it had been assumed that a com bination of stated factors would, by inference, define the maneuver pattern. All these additions have been incorporated in a revised set of CODES and CARD BIBLE that are illustrated as Exhibits B6 and B7, Appendix B. However, at the time that the maneuver factor was determined to be criti cal, it was physically impracticable to make the required definitions and re-evaluate the original data. Therefore, no code for maneuverability has been included in the CODES, CARD BIBLE, or IBM cards.
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Identification of Working Papers
The actual reduction of data to IBM punched-card form presented a problem of mass transfer of figures by several workers. Recognizing that an orderly system of relating the original data to the questionnaire, the WORK SHEET, and the IBM card was imperative, a scheme of SERIAL NUMBERS was developed to answer this need. The first data consisted of a series of letter-file folders identified by the year and location of the sighting or sightings they contained. The num ber of reports of sightings in a single folder varied from 1 to over 20. Under these conditions, there was a great possibility for incorrect tran scription of data, duplication of transcription, or misplacement of inter mediate forms. Further, it was considered desirable to relate all sightings of the same object or objects to one another. The concept of a four-digit serial number (major), followed by a two-digit subserial number (minor), was adequate to fulfill these requirements. To expedite handling of the data, temporary serial numbers were assigned until each report had been evaluated and the phenomenon had been placed i11:, a category of identification. The use of temporary serial num bers permitted the consolidation of duplicate reports from apparently diverse sources, such as a teletype message and an Air Force Form 112. However, this consolidation was made ONLY when it could be proved con clusively that the sources of the two documents were one and the same. Factors of the observer’s location, date and time of observation, descrip tion of the phenomenon, and finally, the name of the observer were con sidered. In this manner, the assignment of major serial and minor sub serial numbers in continuous series was made only to the reports accepted for the statistical study. It is believed that the reports accepted represent unique and unduplicated instances of sightings. In the establishment of the serial-number system, it was necessary to define certain terms,’ so that a standard interpretation could be achieved. The terms and corresponding definitions were: OBSERVER - Any witness reporting to a proper authority that he had seen unidentified aerial objects. SIGHTING
The report or group of reports of the same observed phenomenon that remained unidenti fied to the observer or observers, at least until reported.
7
SINGLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of a single report from ( 1) one OBSERVER with no knowledge of additional OBSERVERS of the same phenom enon, or (2) a group of witnesses of the same phenomenon, each cognizant of the others. The witness who made the report is called a SINGLE OBSERVER. MULTIPLE OBSERVATION - A SIGHTING consisting of several reports from OBSERVERS of the same phenomenon who were cognizant of each other. The witnesses who made reports are called MULTIPLE OBSERVERS. ALL SIGHTINGS - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of one report for each OBSERVER, including both SINGLE and MULTIPLE OBSERVERS. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing the report from each OBSERVER in other words, the representation of each report accepted for the statistical study. UNIT SIGHTINGS - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of one report for each SIGHTING, including all the reports of SINGLE OBSERVATIONS and the one most representative report from each MULTIPLE OBSERVATION. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing the report for each SIGHTING accepted for the statistical study. A major serial number (four digits) was assigned to each sighting, segregating the year of occurrence by selection of limits for each year, as follows: 0001 to 0500 reserved for 1947 0501 to 1000 reserved for 1948 1001 to 1500 reserved for 1949 150lto2000 reserved for 1950 2001 to 2500 reserved for 1951 2501 to4900 reserved for 1952 While this scheme would serve to identify any individual sighting, identifi cation of each report and its subsequent forms was necessary. The minor subserial numbers ( two digits) fulfiiled this requirement. For all SINGLE OBSERVATIONS, a major serial number followed by two (2) zeros, for example, 2759. 00, was sufficient identification. For MULTIPLE OBSER VATIONS, the major serial number followed by a series of two-digit num bers ranging from 00 to 99 was used to identify the individual reports. In general, the most complete report from the most reliable observer of that 8
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MULTIPLE OBSERVATION was identified with the . 00 subserial number. As an example, a MULTIPLE OBSERVATION consisting of six sighting reports would have the following serial numbers: 1132. 00 representing the best report and observer 1132.01 representing an additional observer 1132. 02 representing an additional observer 1132. 03 representing an additional observer 1132. 04 representing an additional observer 1132. 05 representing an additional observer During the course of the transcription of the data to machine card form, it became obvious that certain reports could have been independent observations of the same phenomenon. So, if the presentation of an analysis based on one report for each sighting was valid ( the concept of UNIT SIGHTINGS}, a presentation of an analysis based on one report for each phenomenon should be valid also. Further, the examination of data relating to the actual number of phenomena was considered to be the proper basis for assessing the probability of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge. Therefore, a designation of OBJECT SIGHTINGS was established, with the following definition: OBJECT SIGHTING - ( 1) The group of reports consisting of one report for each phenomenon. (2) The questionnaire, work sheet, and IBM card representing a report for each phenomenon accepted for the statistical study. In brief review, ALL SIGHTINGS refer to all reports, UNIT SIGHTINGS refer to actual sightings, and OBJECT SIGHTINGS refer to the assumed number of phenomena. It must be recognized that the process of identifying OBJECT SIGHTINGS was deductive, while that for UNIT SIGHTINGS was definitive. A conservative approach was adopted in the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, using the factors of date and time of observations, location of observers, duration of observations, and range, bearing, track direc tion, and identification of the phenomena. Any error of selection of OBJECT SIGHTINGS will tend to be in the direction of reducing the actual number of phenomena observed ( several instances of UNIT SIGHTINGS that might be one OBJECT SIGHTING were noted, but the evidence was not conclusive enough to justify consolidation of the reports). Following the determination of OBJECT SIGHTINGS, a series of serial numbers, called the INCIDENT SERIAL NUMBERS, was established to facilitate any future study of a specific object sighting. Each reported sighting that relates to an OBJECT SIGHTING received the same incident serial number, a four-digit code paralleling the major serial number series.
9
For machine manipulation, it was desirable to be able to select the sample of cards (all reports, all sightings, or all phenomena) to be in cluded in a particular study. The concept of a SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION NUMBER was evolved to fill this desire. Using one column of the IBM card, and the correlated working papers,· the code for this function was developed. Multiple punching eliminated the need to use several columns for discrete expression of the variations. Selection of the proper number in this column thus permitted selection of the desired sample of cards.
Evaluation of Individual Reports
Evaluation of sighting reports was recognized as a crucial step in the preparation of data for statistical treatment; inconsistent evaluations would have invalidated any conclusions to be derived from this study. A method of evaluation was, therefore, determined simultaneously with the develop ment of the questionnaire, the coding system, and the work sheet. It is emphasized that all phases of evaluation, even including the tedious prep aration of the original data for statistical treatment, were entrusted only to selected, specially qualified scientists and engineers. Evaluation consisted of a standardized procedure to be followed for: ( 1) the deduction of discrete facts from data which depended on human im pressions rather than scientific measurements, (2) the rating of the ob server and his report as determined from available information, and ( 3) the determination of the probable identification of the phenomenon observed. Categories of identification, established upon the basis of previous experi ence, were as follows: Balloon Astronomical Aircraft Light phenomenon Birds Clouds, dust, etc. Insufficient information Psychological manifestations Unknown Other The first step in evaluation, the deduction of discrete facts from subjective data, required certain calculations based on the information available in the sighting report. An example was the finding of the approxi mate angular velocity and acceleration of the object or objects sighted. Care was taken during this phase of the work to insure against the deduc tion of discrete facts not warranted by the original data. Thus, even though there was a complete lack of any valid evidence consisting of
10
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physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object, this was not assumed to be prima facie evidence that “flying saucers” did not exist. In those cases in which an attempt to reduce the information to a factual level failed completely, the report was eliminated from further con sideration, and thus not included in the statistical analysis. About 800 reports of sightings were eliminated or rejected in this manner. Most of these reports were rejected because they were extremely nebulous; the rest were rejected because they contained highly conflicting statements. The second step in evaluation, the rating of the observer and his report, logically followed the first step, the reduction of the data to usable form. Ratings were assigned on the basis of the following factors of in formation, considered in relation to one another: ( 1)
The experience of the observer, deduced from his occupation, age, and training;
( 2)
The consistency among the separate portions of the description of the sighting;
(3)
The general quality and completeness of the report;
(4)
Consideration of the observer’s fact-reporting ability and attitude, as disclosed by his manner of describing the sighting.
In cases in which insufficient information was available to make a judgment of the observer or report, none was made, but the report was accepted for the statistical study. The third step in the process of evaluation, the attempted identifica tion of the object or objects sighted, was done twice, first by the individual who made the transcription of the data (the preliminary identification), and later (the final identification} by a conference of four persons, two repre sentatives from ATIC and two from the panel of consultants. Although representatives of A TIC participated in making the final identifications, it must be emphasized that any previous identification of a sighting made by A TIC was not introduced or referred to in any way. In the coding system, the choices provided for final identifications were based on A TIC’ s previous experience in analysis of the data. They had found that the majority of sightings could be classified as misinterpre tations of common objects or natural phenomena. Accordingly, categories for objects most frequently present in the air were provided. Balloons, aircraft, astronomical bodies ( such as meteors), birds, and clouds or dust were recognized as major categories. The less frequent, but common objects, such as kites, fireworks, flares, rockets, contrails, and
11
I meteorological phenomena like small tornadoes, were collected into a category called OTHER. A separate category for the uncommon natural phenomena associated with light reflections or refractions, such as mirages, sun dogs, inversion-layer images, and distortions caused by airborne ic.e, was established with the title of LIGHT PHENOMENON. Categories for INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION, PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS, and UNKNOWN were provided for the sightings that could not be fitted into the preceding identifications. An explanation of their use follows: INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION - This identification category was assigned to a report when, upon final con sideration, there was some essential item of information missing, or there was enough doubt abou._t what data were available to disallow • identification as a common object or some natural phenomenon. It is emphasized that this category of identification was not used as a convenient way to dispose of what might be called “poor unknowns”, but as a category for reports that, perhaps, could have been one of several known objects or natural phenomena. No reports identified as INSUFFICIENT INFORMA TION contain authenticated facts or impressions concerning the sighting that would prevent its being identified as a known object or phenomenon; PSYCHOLOGICAL MANIFESTATIONS - This identification category was assigned to a report when, although it was well established that the ob server had seen something, it was also obvious that the description of the sighting had been overdrawn. Religious fanaticism, a desire for publicity, or an over-active imagi nation were the most common mental aber rations causing this type of report; UNKNOWN - This designation in the identification code was assigned to those reports of sightings wherein the description of the object and its maneuvers could not be fitted to the pattern of any known object or phenomenon. For the purposes of this study, two groups of identifications were recognized, the KNOWNS (including all identification categories except the UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS. All possible identifications provided in the code system, except INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION and UNKNOWN, could be assigned accord ing to two degrees of certainty, designated “Certain” and “Doubtful”.
12
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I
A “Certain” identification indicated a minimum amount of doubt regarding the validity of the evaluation. By “rule-of-thumb” reasoning, the proba bility of the identification being correct was better than 95 per cent. A “Doubtful” identification indicated that the choice was less positive, but that there was a better than even chance of being correct. It is emphasized again that, as was tr.ue for other phases of evalua tion, preliminary and final identification was entrusted only to scientists and engineers who, in addition to their broad scientific background, had received instruction, where necessary, in specialized subjects. The panel of consultants provided background information for this instruction. Many of the cases representing unusual features or maneuvers were submitted to and discussed with various members of the panel of consultants prior to the final identification. Consistency in the application of the knowledge necessary for making identifications was maintained by frequent collaboration among the person nel involved, and systematic spot checks of the work. In addition to the general fund of knowledge required to identify satisfactorily a reported unidentified aerial object, an attempt was made to correlate specific data such as flight plans of aircraft, records of balloon releases, weather con ditions, and an astronomical almanac with the reported sighting. The procedure followed in making final identifications deserves ex planation because of the importance assumed by the identification as a basis for statistical treatment. As was mentioned, a conference of four qualified persons, two from A TIC and two from the panel of consultants, decided upon the final identification for each sighting report. This work was done at A TIC, periodically, as reports became ready. During an identification conference, each sighting report was first studied, from the original data, by one person. If that person arrived at a decision, it was checked against the preliminary identification; if the two identifications were the same, the report was appropriately marked and considered finished. If the two identifications did not agree, the report was considered later by everyone participating in the conference until a group decision could be made.
If an evaluator was unable to categorize the report as one of the common objects or as a natural phenomenon, and his opinion was that the sighting should be recorded as UNKNOWN, a group decision was also re quired on that report before it was considered finished. A group decision was necessary on all reports finally recorded as UNKNOWN, regardless of what the preliminary identification had been. In cases where a group decision was not made within a reasonable time, the report was put aside and later submitted to certain members of the panel of consultants for their op1n1ons. If, after this, disagreement continued to exist, the report of the sighting was identified as UNKNOWN.
13
Upon completion of final identifications, all data were transferred to IBM cards, preparatory to analysis.
ANALYSIS OF THE DA TA
Broadly stated, the problem at this point consisted of the judicious application of scientific met~ods of categorizing and analyzing the sub jective data in reports of sightings of unidentified aerial objects. It was recognized that an approach to this problem could best be made by a sys tematic sorting and tabulation program to give frequency and percentage distributions of the important characteristics of sightings. A suggestion that an attempt be made to anticipate all questions that might be asked in the future about a sighting or a group of sightings, and to provide answers, was rejected. The systematic approach also made it possible to develop a detailed reference manual of the attributes of the sightings included in this study. Thus, at the beginning of the analysis, a detailed plan was developed for sorting, counting, and tabulating the information from the punched-card abstracts of reports of sightings. It was believed at the time, and later substantiated, that the results of the program for sorting and tabulating would serve as a, guide for the more sophisticated treatment involving statistical methods. Also, it was anticipated that any patterns or trends that might be found could be subjected to concentrated study in the hope of discovering significant information relating to the characteristics of “flying saucers”. Further, it was believed that these trends could serve as certain of the criteria of validity for any concepts (models) developed in the attempt to discover a class of “flying saucers”. The three parts of this study ( 1) the sorting and tabulation program, (2) the advanced study of the results of that program, and (3) the investiga tion of the possibility of conceiving a model of a “flying saucer” from descriptions reported, are discussed in sections entitled “Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics”, “Advanced Study of the Data”, and “The I Flying Saucer’ Model”.
Frequency and Percentage Distributions by Characteristics
The original conception of this study assumed the availability of sufficient data to describe adequately the physical appearance, maneuver characteristics, range, direction, and probable path of the object or objects observed. However, familiarity with the data, acquired during the 14
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translation and transcription from reports to punched cards, indicated that there would be relatively few specific variables or factors that would yield meaningful correlation studies. Either the original data were too subjec tive, or the incompleteness of the original reports-wo1J:_ld seriously reduce the sample of a specific variable. Preliminary tabulations of various sortings substantiated the im possibility of deriving statistical results from certain variables, such as movement of the observer during the sighting, sound, shape parameter, size, angular velocity and acceleration, appearance and disappearance bearing, initial and final elevation, altitude, and orientation of the object. The statistically usable variables presented in this study include the date, time, location, duration, reliability, and method of observation of the sighting, and the physical attributes of number, color, speed, shape, light brightness, and identification of the objects sighted. The presentation of frequency and percentage distributions of any of the variables must be interpreted in the light of the sample of incidents represented. For example, the analysis of the reported colors of the objects sighted, based on ALL SIGHTINGS, could lead to misrepresenta tion of the distribution of the reported color of the objects, because of the multiplicity of reports on some of the phenomena. On the other hand, the percentage distribution of the light brightness reported by each observer is more likely to be correct than a distribution based on one report for each phenomenon. To assure that the most nearly correct presentation was made, and to avoid the possibility· of failure to uncover any pattern or trend inherent in the data, the variables were studied on five different bases or samples. These samples, and their numerical relation to each other, were as follows: ALL SIGHTINGS (all reports) UNIT SIGHTINGS, all observers UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers OBJECT SIGHTINGS
The preliminary tabulations indicated that the samples based on UNIT SIGHTINGS, single observer, and UNIT SIGHTINGS, multiple observers, would not add materially to this study. Accordingly, although the fre quency distributions were recorded and are available for study, they are not presented in this report. The bases of ALL SIGHTINGS, UNIT SIGHTINGS ( referring to all observers), and OBJECT SIGHTINGS are presented in Appendix A as Tables Al through A240. A critical study of these tabulations reveals that there is no apparent change in the distribution of any variable from one basis to another, and that no marked patterns or trends exist in any sample.
_I 15
I
3,201 cards 2, 554 cards 2, 232 cards 322 cards 2, 199 cards
Graphical Presentation Graphical representation of the important information contained in the tables is presented in Figures l through 38. These figures present the distributions of the important variables only by the total nu.mber of cases in each identification category, since no significant differences were found between the distributions of “Certain” and “Doubtful” identifications of objects with respect to the variables. A chronological study of these figures will afford a broad picture of the tabulated information, without the necessity of a detailed study of the tables. A critical examination of the figures will show that no trends, patterns, or correlations are to be found, with the exception of Figures 18 through 30. The apparent similarity of the distributions shown by these mirror graphs, Figures 18 through 23, was tested by statistical methods which showed that there was a low probability- that the distributions of the KNOWNS, and UNKNOWNS by these characteristics were the same. These tests and their interpretation are discussed in the following section. For purposes of this study, the strategic areas, shown in Figures 32 through 38, and Tables A223 through A240, Appendix A, were designated on the basis of concen tration of reports of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in an area. No other interpre tation of the tables or remaining charts was deemed necessary.
Advanced Study of the Data
It was recognized that the lack of any patterns or trends, as shown by the tabulations and graphs, provided an insecure basis for drawing definite conclusions. Accordingly, shortly before the sorting and tabulation pro gram was concluded, a program of study of the data was developed to utilize statistical and other mathematical methods, which could lead to a more concrete interpretation of the problem.
Position of the Sun Relative to the Observer The first thing that was done was to calculate the angle of elevation of the sun above the horizon and its bearing from true north as seen by the observer at the time of each sighting. With this information, it could then be determined whether there was a possibility that the reported object could have been illuminated by light from the sun. In addition, it could be determined whether an object could be a mock sun ( sun dog) or whether there was a possibility of specular reflection from an aircraft at the posi tion of the object, which would give the appearance of a “flying disc”. A program of computation was set up and carried out to obtain the angle of elevation and the bearing of the sun for each sighting. All informa tion needed for this calculation was available on the deck of IBM cards.
16
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,1952, 1501= 68.3%
I
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Object sightings 2199 =100%
All sightings 3201 = 100%
FIGURE I FREQUENCY OF SIGHTINGS BY YEAR FOR OBJECT, UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS A-7479
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Unit sightings 2554 =100%
17
474 =21.5%
Object sightings 2199=100 %
All sightings 3201=100%
Unit sightings 2554= 100%
FIGURE 2 DISTRIBUTION OF EVALUATIONS OF OBJECT, UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS FOR ALL YEARS A-7480
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
18
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Unknown 434=19.7°1.
Astronomical 479 =21.8 %
1952
Aircraft
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FIGURE 3
DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALU ATION FOR ALL YEARS WITH COMPARISONS OF EACH YEAR FOR EACH EVALUATION GROUP A•7411
I
I
11
19
No. of object sightings 100
+
2199
79
143
186
169
121
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80
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FIGURE 4 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR A-7 4 82
---------------------No. of object sightings
70
I F+—1 ;..I
55
11 I I 11
83
11 I I I 11
127
129
11 I I I I I I I I 11
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FIGURE 5 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION WITHIN MONTHS FOR ALL YEARS A-7413
20
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Astronomical All years
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Other All years 1947 1948 1949 1950 195 I 1952
30
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Certain
0
Per Cent
10
20
30
Doubtful
FfGURE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY CERTAIN AND DOUBTFUL EVALUATIONS FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR A•7414
22
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FIGURE 7 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS AND UNKNOWN OBJECT EVALUATIONS BY MONTHS, 1947-1952 C-7485
Astro-
n Astro nomical
Unknown
=22.8
I 71=33.3% I
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lnsuf. info. 27=3.6%
FIGURE 8 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY GROUPS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS FOR EACH GROUP A-748S
24
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---------------------No. of object sightings 2199
100
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FIGURE 9 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS AMONG THE FOUR GROUPS FOR ALL YEARS AND EACH YEAR
1951
SIGHTING
1952
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RELIABILITY A-74 87
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f—•----
‘:j Military I Poor
FIGURE 10 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY SIGHTING RELIABILITY GROUPS. SEGREGATED BY MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OBSERVERS WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH A-1411 SEGREGATtON
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
IQO,r,:::+=+=11=+:+:::i:+r-r.r-r..r:,-0.;:r+:r+.:ri-T_f1_J7…,. 7’J-rr..
7…,.
90
r…,.r-1-1rr-”’[_“I.”I.T..LL~n, IO 0
.._ri…rrwwT---1-T---1-T …
90
Unknown
80 70 60 +
+
c
c
u
u
cu
cu
50 ” cu
L..
cu
a.
a.
40 30
20 10
\
I
I
\
I
\
I
I
\
’ White
Metallic
23.5 %
17.7%
i,
Not stated OrangE Red 12.3% 10.0% 8.1%
Other
28.4%
FIGURE II DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED COLORS OF OBJECT(S) WITH EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH COLOR GROUP A•7419
I
I I
+-r+-r
,T.,-
27
~,…,…,…,…r-T""S…,…,-100
1008060-
I I
-+-i---+-+…,._+-+---<__. -
80
11 or more objects ~~-0~·~~'Y,f
66=3.0%
3-10 objects
255= 11.6 %
0. 40-
::::,
0
--
"C
~
(!)
cu
20-
-
·.t::.
31';
-20 <!>
0
C
C
.t::.
(I)
0-
C
cu 100-
~~
u 0
0
~
(\J (0
a.. 80-
(I)
cu O')
:0 (X)
(.)
cu
0
C
II
O')
I object
1636= 74.4%
0
II
o
(0
-
-
~
u
cu
.
°EN
v
C
~,...,..T""T""'S,..........~ -
IO O cu
(.)
~
;c:...~-<":-<":v:vvccc;
cu
,,....,,...."",,v'X,Y~'C◊O: - 8 0 Q..
~
cu
.0
E
::::,
60-
z
1----------i-
60
4020-
100- .................- ........o.
t-+-+-+-+-+-+-,r-+-t-+t Unknown
-20
::::,
o_
e 80-~~V~v"~V'~-~.,.._.,..ic:J',.~ Others
(!)
lnsuf. info.
c
-
Balloon
-c 40cu
Aircraft
:C 6031';
(.)
~
cu 20-
a..
Astronomical
FIGURE 12 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS SEEN PER SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION DISTRI
BUTION FOR EACH GROUP
A-74 90
28
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
----------------------
-
--~---------------------------------------------
1J ! J..111~~
mm !!!!!!m
eo-1 ~':.~.~. / / ' ~111111-1-----------,1111 1111111
1111111111111~_~1---------,-11111 I111111
1
1
1
1
lnsuf. info.
100---~-----~~~~~
9 0-1
70
.
~
= ~
No t
~ov;ra~.mi ~ ~ / ; , •
61
::~ ;~;.in
40
30
/~~"'TTT"l7"7"''7"7"'7"?'"7~~~
-
~~~:.-
~r::i IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIl~_~~mffll 11111111111111
/~~-IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIR===:=filllllllllllll lllll
✓~:::~I
11111111111111111111111~-====:~BI
1111111111
5
-~:~30·:::
: ~: :~e?:: :::::-111111111111111 ~;:==;=91111111111111
-,,~-1,1111111,11m1111111
O-D~;~t!;:n
0
IO
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Evaluations in Per Cent
FIGURE 13 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION OF SIGHTING WITH EVALUATION
DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH DURATION GROUP
A- 7491
No. of object sightings
70
100
55
83
127
12.9
-
63_8
183
407
L25
1.66
- -
106
LOS
I
90I·
90
Not
statec
en
Cl
C
.
:;: 80 -
/
/
.c.
Cl
·(/)
-
u
,,
70
-
Cl)
'B
0 60
I
\'
'\ '
I
1:0 50I u
•
I I)
,.,
/
I
I
I
''
I
'\
-
-
''
''
I
II
'
I
..
-
I"
-w
0
30I
10-1v
CV
U 20 r
sec
Cl)
10
I
-
,;
,;'
-
'
I\
~·
,;'
V
\
.,. ,,·
\
'\'\•
5 sec
ond
less
/
'
I'
...
I' '
V
I
I
''
I
\
..'
~
/
'
,,.
...
/
I'
,-,
- II
. 20
-,,,·
.,,.
.......
,,,,
.
30
f I
I
I
..
-,
. 40
I I
' I
..
,-,
'
5 0 '
Cl)
a.
I
I
I
'\
..
/
(.)
I
I
\
-
r,
-
,,·
I"
I'
'
,,,
/
~
\
I
I'
- ·,
\
'
'
'
a.
;
1·,
Cl)
\
\
\
10
0
Jon
Feb
Mor
Apr
0
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
C
\
\
I1_-~y
se_e
C
\
\
to
;;; 5min
\
60
I
I
I
~ 40I U)I
0
I
I
I
\
--
;'
70
I
I
'
'
'
o 61sec
II
II
'\\
\
-
. 80
I
\
'
,;
r
I
i
min
.c.
"'
I
,-,
I
''
-"' ....
I
,I
I
I\
6-30
en
0
I
fn;;in -
~
~
100
Dec
FIGURE 14 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY MONTHS AMONG THE EIGHT DURATION
GROUPS FOR ALL YEARS
A-7492
---------------------100-
___
......,..,,,,,,,,,, .......-K\'.\,\.\.\.\.\.\.\l 11 11 I 1111 I P/7?777J1f------txx5o&'x54 I I I I I I 111111 I 11
lnsuf. info
23.5%
90-
Not
stated
---i'·"~::-.1II III II I 1•::====~111I IIIII I III
--------r-f;'~ilIIII
IIIII~
I
I
I
I
IIII
\~~:~11111111111111~:====;::====::-[ 111111
1111•
4\~11111111111111111111111~~::==:=-.IIIIIIIIIII
i. .--.J, .:~: _ _ 111111.1111111.I ~ .11111111 I.I 111111
80-
Other
70-
Flam
60- enticular
C:
QJ
0
50-
~
QJ
(II
Q.
40-
30-
20-
Elliptical
I
\\
~
10-
o_
Shape
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 15 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE OF OBJECT(S) REPORTED WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH SHAPE GROUP
A-7493
100
ioo-r-----------K'Z\:\.~\:i 11111111111 IV/T///1
.KXXXX?t 111 I I 1111111
90-
11111~~~::::::=::::~111111111111
eO-ln;~::~ed' ,/~~
~ : ~I
ffl • ~-u
;:::~:~II I111111111111111 ~t:==:=:;: : : : : ==~t: :=: : =jgm I1111111111111111
~ i ::~ :~i~t / i B II II IIII IIII IIIl~t=:::=:::=t:=:::::::=:::=::::::::~91111111111111111
: ~:~;~~~o :~::;~]! 1111111111~~11111111111
~~~~:-1,111111.-t:::==c::::==:t:::==,_____ffl 1111 l1111111
1
:~
15t
:~::Y
0 ·
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Evaluation in Per Cent
FIGURE 16 DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY REPORTED SPEED OF OBJECT(S) WITH
EVALUATION DISTRIBUTION FOR EACH SPEED GROUP
A-7494
100
---------------------No. of all sighting
3201
100-
117
Location
not
stated , ... ...
~ 90-
...
+
&,
80<11
205
,,,
''
., ,/'
-
164
' ' ',
I
I
~
40-
I
\
I
\
Outdoors
\
-60
,,
c
<11
u
"
.c
,,--
1_-:;.,'
+-
30-
In bldg.
',/
/
''
/
In plane
,.,,.,
'\
\
,
\,,,
-40
,,
~
\
\
/
,.,,
\
\
\
-30
\
\
-20
,.,,,, ,,,-
'
II
10-
.,
11~,"
...... _
I,.
"20o.
,,,, ,,,
~~
''
,
, I,
,,,
-50
'
,,
~ \
//
, ,, ,
~
~
~
~
.--:._,,,,,,
'
+
-70
I
\
0
-so
I
\
~
(1,1 0
''
I
\
f/)
c,,.._
''
I
70-
+-
'
-100
-90
~
I
\
·-"' 60.c
·-"'
50-
2018
160
I
0::
u,
C
306
' ' , ...
---
--
_, ,
----
........
-10
In car
0
_Q
All years
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
FIGURE 17 DISTRIBUTION OF ALL SIGHTINGS BY OBSERVER LOCATION FOR ALL YEARS AND
EACH YEAR
A-74 95
Unknown
Per Cent
Total Less Unknown
Pe-r Cent
I
30
25
20
15
10
5
I
I
I
I
I
I
0
0
5
I
10
I
15
I
20
I
25
I
30
_1
_j
White
Meta II ic
Not stated
Of
~
Orange
Red
Other
FIGURE 18 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY COLOR,1947-1952
A-7496
-~-------------------Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I
Unknown
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
0
0
IO
20
Per Cent
30 40 50 60
70
80
One
Two
c,,
Three
to
ten
(JI
..
Eleven
or
more
■
■
Not stated
■
FIGURE 19 COMPARISON OF KNOWN ANO UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY NUMBER OF
OBJECTS PER SIGHTING, 1947-1952
A- 7497
Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I
Unknown
Per Cent
40
35
30
25
20
15
IO
5
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
0
0
5
IO
15
20
25
30
35
40
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Stationary
Less than
100 mph
100 to400
mph
(1,1
0)
-
More than
400mph
Meteor-Ii ke
-
Not stated
FIGURE 20 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SPEED, 1947-1952
A-7491
---------------------30
Total Less Unknown
Unknown
Per Cent
Per Cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5 seconds
or less
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
6-10
seconds
11-30
seconds
"'...a
31-60
seconds
61 seconds
5 minutes
6-30
minutes
More than
30 minutes
Not stated
FIGURE 21 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY DURATION, 1947-1952
A-7499
Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15
Unknown
10
5
0
0
5
10
Per Cent
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Elliptical
Rocket
and
aircraft
Meteor or
comet
c,,
a,
U
Lenticular,
conicol or
teardrop
Flame
Other shop,
Not stated
FIGURE 22 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY SHAPE, 1947-1952
A•7500
---------------------Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
I
60
I
50
I
40
I
30
I
20
I
0
0
10
I
-
-/
(1,1
U)
Sunlight on
mirror or
aluminum
Sunlight on
plaster,
stone or soil
IO
I
20
I
Unknown
Per Cent
30
40
I
I
50
I
60
I
I
-
Brighter
than moon
-
~
Like moon
,...
...
..
-
-
Duller
than moon ...
'
Not stated
Fl GURE 23 COMPARISON OF KNOWN AND UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LIGHT BRIGHTNESS,
1947-1952
A•7501
Total Less Astronomical
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
Astronomical
Per Cent
0
0
j
January
10
20
30
40
t
February
March
April
..
0
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 24 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
ASTRONOMICAL VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS ASTRONOMICAL
A-7502
---------------------Total Less Aircraft
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
Aircraft
Per Cent
0
0
January
10
20
30
40
t
February
March
April
May
June
~
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 25
COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
AIRCRAFT VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS AIRCRAFT
A-7503
Balloon
Per Cent
Total Less Balloon
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
0
l
0
January
10
20
30
40
t
February
Morch
April
Moy
June
~
I\)
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 26
COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED
AS BALLOON VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS BALLOON
A-7 504
---------------------lnsuff icient
Total Less lnsuff icient Information
Information
Per Cent
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
\
I
I
I
0
0
10
20
30
40
j
January
February
March
April
May
•
c,,
June
July
August
September
_ October
November
December
FIGURE 27 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
INSUFFICIENT INFORMATION VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS INSUFFI
CIENT INFORMATION
A-7505
--/
Total Less Other
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
0
0
January
10
Other
Per Cent
20
30
40
t
February
March
April
May
..
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 28
COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
OTHER VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS OTHER
A-7506
---------------------Unknown
Per Cent
Total Less Unknown
Per Cent
40
30
20
10
0
0
j
January
10
20
30
40
t
February
March
April
May
June
~
u,
July
August
September
October
November
December
FIGURE 29 COMPARISON OF MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS EVALUATED AS
UNKNOWN VERSUS TOTAL OBJECT SIGHTINGS LESS UNKNOWN
A•7507
90
80
-
-
C
Cl>
-co 60
...
~ cu 40
a.
20
\
C
~
C
Cl>
C
~
a.
Cl>
20
-
-
C
Cl>
1/)
Unknown
,a:.._
60
<i ~
40
,
, ''
(.)
- -- !/
,/
C
a§
60
-C (.) 40
Cl>
-
cu
m a.
20
0
._
Cl>
-
.s::.
-(.)
C
Cl>
60
Cl>
a.
20
\
'~
\
~
\ I \\._
;, -~
,..:::..
\
~----
v
J,,
- ,:,,,
'
"-.J.;
[\,..::. / '
f-"a- ii
~
I
'
~
:::.:::.:: ..::::
I
\ / \ -~ l?- ,__ ? /
I
\
\
\
......... ~' _.. '-.;\
I
Unknown
~
/ k: ~ V~~~ I\ j
"t,'
I \
~
/'-.
"N
-' \.,
~
'~
_,_:,,
I\
i.-,
,,
~
✓
.,::..
\
_;~ -✓- ~ -- --
\
l/ ~ "-
¾
-::-,
---
I
I
I
,
\
~L
Unknown
~
< ' --
Number ofl
I objects
1/- ~ .:.:_
''
0
M
'
\ I
38
0 ... 40
FIGURE
-
,
\_
I
- ,1/
I'- I
~-,
~-
/ , Vr\ ,/ \b< ~, ✓- ~ r:..:: ,, h.,v y
---~
) ~ -- V-- ~ ,
Unknown
20
0
0
I
V\
('
\Unkn~~ h
3§
C
Cl>
C
~-~~,
"hf/,'
.:.;:; ,._
Cl>
-...... 0
::....
I
I
I
20
C
-- I
....... "'-::
IL ~ -- I "'
3§
...0 (.) 60
<t a.... 40
~
\
60
I ~ "~~ \ I
\
3~
(.)
... 40
0
Unknown
i..:::: ~
r
1/)
I
I
I
v'
"'
I ~ ~;' ::>< ~
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
V
I
~~~~be,f~~~~;,•b~
\,~(§;!~~aa:-~~:~-,~!:t;!~~~o~-e\,:~~e~~e~
~-..,~~eb
n~
~,i~o~\o~ w; ~o' ~era,,,, , "- "'(,~~o
I
~ ~ I,,.,.
0
'
Q~
Color
'
I',..
~
-.::: ~
f1/
""' -
'
Shape
Speed
I
Duration
30 CHARACTERISTICS PROFILES OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY
TOTAL SAMPLE, KNOWN EVALUATIONS, AND INDIVIDUAL KNOWN
EVALUATIONS, WITH UNKNOWN EVALUATIONS SUPERIMPOSED
B-7508
46
I
I
I
I
I
---------------------65"
40"
~
35"
--.J
30"
KEY: IN EACH SUBDIVISION THE TOP FIGURE
INDICATES THE FREQUENCY OF ALL
SIGHTINGS, THE MIDDLE FIGURE UNIT
SIGHTINGS, ANO THE BOTTOM FIGURE
OBJECT SIGHTINGS
45'
115"
FIGURE 31
FREQUENCY OF OBJECT, UNIT, AND ALL SIGHTINGS WITHIN THE UNITED STATES 1947-1952, BY SUBDIVISIONS
OF ONE DEGREE OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE
1:11'
ll!l"
110"
105°
100"
BS0
90"
95"
BO"
750
65"
111"
CANADA
15"
411"
411"
CENTRAL WEST
59-10°'
~
00
35"
311"
25"
45°
1211"
115"
FIGURE 32
105"
95"
911"
BS"
DISTRIBUTION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY EVALUATION FOR THE TWELVE REGIONAL
AREAS OF THE UNITED STATES, WITH THE STRATEGIC AREAS LOCATED (STRATEGIC
AREAS WERE DETERMINED OH THE BASIS OF CONCENTRATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS)
65"
611"
---------------------6\0
Balance of Central East
Region
81 object sightings
~
CD
36
FIGURE 33 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL EAST REGION
a- 7511
10/5
43
1010
915
l
~
~
\
;
~
~
\ r J\ L>l\ \
I
1
J
(JI
0
I
l
36
I
1010
FIGURE
Balance of Central
I
Midwest
Region
I
164 object s i g h t i n g s , \
)
V
~,.
\/
\
(
915
34 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF
THE CENTRAL MIDWEST REGION
a-7512
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Farwest Region
FIGURE 35 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS
IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FARWEST REGION
B-7515
I
I
I
51
1010
9\0
36
36
t
I\ ~ 2\F
J
t1
UI
N
e2 object sightings
0
Waco
210 object sightings
ICIO
9\0
8\5
FIGURE 36. COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS
OF THE SOUTH MIDWEST REGION
B-7514
---------------------10/5
1010
9 e object slvhtlnvs
36
Albuquerque
•
(11
(>I
:)
,
1010
FIGURE 37 COMPARISON OF EVAWATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF
THE SOUTH WEST REGION
A-7515
Balance of South
Farwest Region
19 object sightings
FIGURE 38 COMPARISON OF EVALUATION OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS IN
THE STRATEGIC AREAS OF THE SOUTH FARWEST REGION
B-7516
54
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
__I
This information consisted of:
( 1) Time and date of observation in Greenwich Civil Time
(2)
Latitude and longitude of the observer at the time of
observation.
Figure 39 shows a celestial sphere on which Z represents the ob
server's zenith, ~ represents the sun, and N represents the north celestial
pole.
Using the date and time of the observation, the longitude and declina
tion (§) of the sun were obtained from an ephemeris of the sun and corrected
for the equation of time. The difference between the longitudes of the sun
and the observer was taken, and called the hour angle (HA on Figure 39).
Then, using the declination of the sun (S), the latitude of the observer
(lat), and the hour angle (HA), the angle (ZS)between the observer's zenith
and the sun can be calculated from the law of cosines of spherical trigo
nometry. Thus, cos ZS = cos (90 - lat) cos (90 - S) + sin (90 - lat) sin
(90 - S) cos (HA).
Since the angle ZS is measured from the observer's zenith, the angle
of elevation of the sun above the horizon for daytime sightings was found by
taking 90 - ZS. When the sun was below the horizon, the angle of depres
sion of the sun below the horizon was found by taking ZS - 90.
Having found the angle ZS, the bearing of the sun ( angle B} was ob
tained from the formula:
sin (B)
=
sin(90-S)
sin (HA)
sin (ZS}
All of the above calculations were made with IBM equipment. Sines,
cosines, and their inverses were obtained from a deck of 9,000 IBM cards
on which seven-place Peter 1 s tables of the sines, cosines, and tangents of
angles had been punched for each 0.01 of a degree ·from O to 90 degrees.
Upon completion of these calculations, the cards representing OBJECT
SIGHTINGS were sorted on the sign of the sine of the bearing angle. This
separated the cards into two groups: ( 1) sightings which occurred between
noon and midnight, for which the sine of the bearing angle was positive; and
(2) sightings between midnight and noon, for which the sine of the bearing
angle was negative. Then each of these groups was sorted into groups for
intervals of 10° in angle of elevation of the sun from -90° to +90°. A count
was made of the number of cards in each group and from this a histogram
was constructed (Figure 40}. The UNKNOWN OBJECT SIGHTINGS were
then sorted out, counted in the same manner, and a histogram was made
(again see Figure 40).
55
FIGURE 39 DIAGRAM OF A CELESTIAL SPHERE
A· 75 35
56
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~--------------------300
275
250
I
225
I
Sun~t
Cl)
-0
C
I
200
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.s:
0
en
u
175
Cb
150
......
.0
-
125
Cb
.0
100
0
All object sightings ------+--41►
(710
__, "-
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Unknown object sightings
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::::,
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•
Sun,I rise
75
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50
J
25
0
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-90
-60
-30
0
+30
+60
+90
+60
+30
0
-30
-60
Angle of Elevation of The Sun
Fl GURE 40 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY ANGLE OF ELEVATION OF THE SUN, INTERVALS
OF 10 DEGREES OF ANGLE
A-7536
-90
The following points should be carefully noted about these histograms:
( 1)
The negligible number of sightings when the sun is within
10° of the zenith and nadir (angle of elevation of the sun =
± 90 °) of the observer is due to the fact that the southernmost latitude of the U. S. is greater than the declination
of the sun at the summer solstice, so that it would be impossible for the sun to reach the zenith or nadir of any
observer in the U. S. (where most of the sightings were
made).
(2)
The time of day at which a particular angle of elevation
of the sun occurs does not remain fixed but varies from
day to day. Consider, for example, the variation in
sunrise and sunset times over the course of a year.
Thus, there are only two inferences to be made from this histogram:
( 1) the high peak of sightings soon after sunset, and (2) the lack of increase
in the UNKNOWNS relative to the KNOWNS near either sunset or sunrise.
This would seem to discount the possibility that atmospheric phenomena
such as mock suns were the primary cause of the unknown reports, since
such phenomena usually occur when the sun is near the horizon.
The Local Sun Time was computed as a step in the calculation of the
angle of elevation of the sun. It is related to the hour angle by the equation:
Local Sun Time (L. S. T.) = HA/15 + 12. 00, where L. S. T. is in hours and
HA in degrees.
The cards were grouped on the basis of L. S. T. in intervals of one
hour, and the number of cards in each interval was counted. Again the
UNKNOWNS were sorted out and similarly treated. Histograms were con
structed with the results of these tabulations of OBJECT SIGHTINGS
(Figure 41). Here, again, there is a peak in the early evening hours.
The cards were then broken up into seven groups on the basis of the
angle of elevation of the sun, as follows:
Group 1 - Daylight sightings for which the sun was more than
10° above the horizon.
Group 2 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° above the horizon.
Group 3 - Sunset sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° below the horizon.
Group 4 - Evening sightings for which the sun was between
10° and 40° below the horizon.
58
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---------------------300
275
250
& 225
---en-a, 200
C
+-
+0
a.,
175
-
150 Midnight
·-..0
0
~
0
(JI
CD
~
a.,
..0
E
:,
z
Noon
125
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100
75r
All object sightings
L
,_
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:Midnight
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Unknown ;.bject sightings ~ ~
50
25
0300
0600
0900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2400
Loco I Sun Time
FIGURE 41 FREQUENCY OF OBJECT SIGHTINGS BY LOCAL SUN TIME, INTERVALS OF ONE HOUR
A-7537
Group 5 - Night sightings for which the sun was more than 10°
below the horizon and which were not included in
Group 4.
Group 6 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between 0°
and 10° below the horizon.
Group 7 - Sunrise sightings for which the sun was between O0
and 10° above the horizon.
These group numbers were punched on the cards and incorporated
into the coding system. The number of OBJECT SIGHTINGS in each group
for each identification was then tabulated and is given in Table I.
TABLE I
OBJECT SIGHTINGS
Angle of Elevation Group
Identification
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Balloon
Astronomical
Aircraft
Light phenomena
Insufficient information
UNKNOWN
Other
156
52
187
8
72
134
64
17
6
23
2
12
14
8
28
43
49
4
26
25
12
83
236
144
25
76
150
50
40
118
60
7
28
86
36
0
9
5
0
2
6
3
2
6
2
0
0
7
7
Total
673
82
187
764
375
25
24
According to this table, a large majority of the KNOWN OBJECT
SIGHTINGS in Group 1 (343 out of 467) were either aircraft or balloons. In
Groups 4 and 5 combined, a large majority (681 out of 899) were either
balloons, aircraft, or astronomical. Accordingly, a re-evaluation of the
UNKNOWNS in these three groups was planned with the objective of deter
mining which of the UNKNOWNS in Group 1 might possibly be aircraft or
balloons and which of the UNKNOWNS in Groups 4 and 5 might possibly be
balloons, aircraft, or astronomical objects. More will be said of this
project later.
Statistical Chi Square Test
In the meantime, mirror graphs had been constructed from the fre
quency tabulations which seemed to show that, when the KNOWNS (total less
UNKNOWNS) and the UNKNOWNS were grouped according to one of six
characteristics, the percentage of KNOWNS and the percentage of
60
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UNKNOWNS in each characteristic group showed the same general trend.
In other words, on the basis of these graphs, it looked as though there was
a good possibility that the UNKNOWNS were no different from the KNOWNS,
at least in the aggregate. It was decided to investigate this by the use of a
statistical procedure called the "Chi Square Test".
The Chi Square Test is a statistical test of the likelihood that two
distributions come from the same population, that is, it gives the proba
bility that there is no difference in the make-up of the two distributions
being measured.
The method is outlined as follows:
( 1) Adjust the distributions by multiplying the KNOWNS in each
characteristic group by the ratio of the total number of
UNKNOWNS to the total number of KNOWNS. (The Chi
Square Test is applicable only to distributions which have
the same total number of elements.)
(2)
Take the difference between the number of UNKNOWNS and
the adjusted number of KNOWNS in each characteristic
group.
(3) Square the remainder from Step 2.
( 4)
Divide the result of Step 3 by the corresponding number of
adjusted KNOWNS.
This is the chi square for the particular group. Summing the indi
vidual chi squares over the groups of a characteristic gives the chi square
for that characteristic. This number is then compared with a table of the
distribution of chi square which can be found in many texts on elementary
s tatis tics.
It will be noted that chi square is tabulated in terms of degrees of
freedom which in this case is one less than the number of groups of sight
ings for each characteristic.
The tabulations of KNOWNS and UNKNOWNS against the six char
acteristics and the Chi Square Test as it was applied are shown in Tables
II through VII. In each case, the number of degrees of freedom is given,
as is the value of chi squares corresponding to probabilities of 5 per cent
and 1 per cent that two distributions with this number of degrees of freedom
come from the same population. Since the greater the value of chi square
the smaller the probability of homogeneity of two distributions, a calculated
value of chi square greater than either the 5 per cent or 1 per cent values
will indicate a probability less than 5 per cent or 1 per cent, respectively,
that the two distributions are homogeneous. The term homogeneity is used
here to indicate that two distributions could have come from the same
population.
61
TABLE II
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR
x2
Color
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
(K-n)2
K
White
Metallic
Not stated
Orange
Red
Yellow
Green
Blue
Other
405
313
209
172
146
128
130
67
195
100
77
51
42
36
31
32
17
48
112
76
62
49
33
31
14
26
31
1. 44
0. 01
2.37
1. 17
0.25
0
10. 13
4. 76
6.02
Total
1765
434
434
26. 15
Degrees of freedom
8
15.5
20. 1
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TABLE III
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
x2,
(K-n)2
K
1
2
3-10
11 or more
Not stated
1339
159
185
41
41
329
39
46
10
10
297
37
70
25
5
3. 11
o. 10
12. 52
22. 50
2.50
Total
1765
434
434
40.73
Number of
Objects Per
Sighting
Degrees of freedom
4
9.5
13.3
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TABLE IV
Shape
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SHAPE
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS {K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
x2
{K-n}' 2
K
Elliptical
Rocket and aircraft
Meteor or comet
Teardrop, lenticular,
or conical
Flame
Other
Not stated
838
80
55
103
206
20
14
25
195
33
4
22
0.59
8.45
7. 14
0.36
96
193
400
24
47
98
10
54
116
8. 17
1.04
3.30
Total
1765
434
434
29.05
6
Degrees of freedom
5%
12.6
16.8
1%
64
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TABLE V
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION
Duration of
Observation
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
x2
{K-n}' 2
K
5 sec or less
6-10 sec
11-30 sec
31-60 sec
61 sec-5 min
6-30 min
Over 30 min
Not stated
259
92
153
108
269
305
135
444
64
23
38
26
66
75
33
109
27
21
33
42
99
71
37
104
21.39
o. 17
0.66
9.85
16.50
0.21
0.48
0.23
Total
1765
434
434
49.49
Degrees of freedom
7
5%
14. 1
18. 5
1%
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TABLE VI
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED
x2
,2
Speed
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Stationary
Less than 100 mph
100 to 400 mph
Over 400 mph
Meteor-like
Not stated
249
154
181
403
83
695
61
38
45
99
20
171
53
26
58
145
16
136
1. 05
3.79
3.76
21. 37
0.80
7. 16
Total
1765
434
434
37. 93
Degrees of freedom
Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)
{K-n)
K
5
5%
1%
11. 1
15. 1
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TABLE VII
CHI SQUARE TEST OF KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS
Light Brightness
x2
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
(K-n)' 2
K
47
151
76
11
37
19
14
28
16
0.82
2. 19
0.47
Sunlight on mirror
Sunlight on aluminum
Sunlight on plaster,
stone, or soil
Brighter than moon
Like moon or duller
than moon
Not stated
273
68
67
17
61
22
0.55
1. 47
1150
283
293
0.35
Total
1765
434
434
5.85
Degrees of freedom
5
5%
1%
11. 1
15. 1
67
In five of the six cases, the probability is less than 1 per cent that
the distributions are the same. In the sixth case, Light Brightness, the
classifications are too nebulous to be of real value. However, these tests
do not necessarily mean that the UNKNOWNS are primarily "flying saucers"
and not aircraft, balloons, or other known objects or natural phenomena.
The UNKNOWNS might still be unidentified KNOWNS if either of the follow
ing cases occurred:
( l}
The characteristics which were observed for the UNKNOWNS
were different from those observed for the KNOWNS because
of the psychological make-up of the observer or because of
atmospheric distortion. This assumes the distribution of
objects in KNOWNS and UNKNOWNS is the same.
(2)
The UNKNOWNS may be known objects in different propor
tions than the group identified as KNOWNS. (That is, a
greater percentage of the UNKNOWNS could be aircraft
than the percentage of aircraft in the identified KNOWNS.}
The second case is the more probable one. In this connection, it is
interesting to note the factors which contributed to a large chi square
result in the tests made above:
(1)
Color
The major contribution to chi square in color is from the
color green. There is a large excess of green sightings
among the KNOWNS over the UNKNOWNS. Of the 130
known objects in this classification, 98 are astronomical,
and are due mostly to the green fireballs reported from
the Southwest U. S.
(2)
Number
The large chi square is due to a greater proportion of
UNKNOWNS in the multiple object classification. Apparently
these are harder to identify.
(3} Shape
In this case, there is a higher percentage of UNKNOWNS
in the rocket-aircraft-shape classification. These might
be familiar objects for which unusual maneuvers were
reported.
There is a higher percentage of KNOWNS in the flame
and in the meteor- or comet-shape category, which in
both cases appears to result mainly from excesses of
astronomical sightings.
68
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(4) Duration of observation
Here there is an excess of KNOWNS in the less-than5-second group. Again, the majority of KNOWNS in
this group are astronomical. The greater proportion
of UNKNOWNS in the 31- to 60-second and 61-second
to 5-minute groups cannot be explained.
(5) Speed
The major contribution to chi square for this char
acteristic is due to a large excess of UNKNOWNS in
the over 400-mph class. It can be assumed that some
of the excessive speeds are inaccuracies in estimates
by observers. However, some radar sightings, which
are practically impossible to identify, show objects
with speeds of 1,000 to 2,000 mph and over, and these
reports account for a number of these UNKNOWNS.
(6)
Light brightness
Since this chi square was not significant, it is not
necessary to discuss it here.
An examination of these discrepancies thus brings up a very interest
ing point. In every case for which there is a significant excess of KNOWNS
over UNKNOWNS, the excess can be attributed to an excess of identifiable
astronomical phenomena. This would seem to lead to the conclusion that
astronomical phenomena are easy to identify and there are very few left in
the UNKNOWNS. Accordingly, the astronomical object sightings were
deleted from the KNOWN object sightings and the Chi Square Test was again
applied. The results are shown in Tables VIII through XIII, where in this
case the KNOWNS do not contain astronomical sightings.
It will be noted that some groups were combined when the adjusted
number of KNOWNS was ten or less, except for the case for which the
number of objects per sighting was the characteristic studied. These were
borderline cases, and no good combination of groups existed.
It is apparent that the deletion of astronomical sightings gives a better
fit, although the decision is not clear cut, since for two cases (light bright
ness and speed}, the chi square increased. However, it can again be pointed
out that the reporting of these two characteristics is highly subjective and is
open to question. The estimation of speed is especially open to question
because of the impossibility of accurately determining it visually.
69
TABLE VIII
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF COLOR
Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)
x2
(K-n}' 2
K
95
101
64
39
31
30
11
10
53
112
76
62
49
33
31
14
3.04
6. 19
0.06
2.56
0. 13
0.03
0.82
26}
31
0.57
434
434
13.40
Color
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS {K}
• White
Metallic
Not stated
Orange
Red
Yellow
Green
Blue
Other
281
298
189
117
92
90
32
29
158
Total
1286
Degrees of freedom
7
5%
1%
14. 1
18. 5
70
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TABLE IX
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF NUMBER
Number of
Objects Per
Sighting
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
x2
(K-n)' 2
K
1
2
3-10
llormore
Not stated
913
142
168
34
29
308
48
57
11
10
297
37
70
25
5
0.39
2.52
2.96
15.36
2.50
Total
1286
434
434
23.73
Degrees of freedom
4
5%
9.5
13.3
1%
71
TABLE X
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SHAPE
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Elliptical
Rocket or aircraft
Meteor or comet
Flame
Teardrop, lenticular,
or conical
Other
Not stated
632
72
9
47
79
Total
Shape
x2
Number of
UNKNOWNS. ( n)
(K-n)' 2
K
213
24
3
16
27
195
33
1. 52
3.37
22
0.93
151
296
51
100
54
116
1. 76
2.56
1286
434
434
11.46
Degrees of freedom
1~}
1.32
5
5%
11. 1
15. 1
1%
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TABLE XI
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS UNKNOWNS
ON THE BASIS OF DURATION OF OBSERVATION
Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)
x2,
(K-n} 2
K
Duration of
Observation
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
5 sec or less
6-10 sec
11-30 sec
31-60 sec
61 sec-5 min
6 min-30 min
Over 30 min
Not stated
92
47
118
92
252
259
91
335
31
16
40
31
85
87
31
113
27
21
33
42
99
71
37
104
0.52
1. 56
1. 23
3.90
2. 31
2.94
1. 16
0.72
Total
1286
434
434
14.34
Degrees of freedom
7
5%
14. 1
18.5
1%
73
TABLE XII
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF SPEED
Speed
Nu1nber of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Stationary
Less than 100 mph
100 to 400 mph
Over 400 mph
Meteor-like
Not stated
196
128
156
291
24
491
66
43
53
98
8
166
Total
1286
434
x2
'
Number of
UNKNOWNS (n)
(K-n} 2
K
53
26
58
2.56
6.72
0.47
145}
16
136
28.54
434
43.71
5.42
4
Degrees of freedom
5%
1%
9.5
13. 3
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TABLE XIII
CHI SQUARE TEST OF REVISED KNOWNS VERSUS
UNKNOWNS ON THE BASIS OF LIGHT BRIGHTNESS
Light Brightness
x2,
(K-n) 2
K
Number of
KNOWNS
Adjusted
Number of
KNOWNS (K)
Number of
UNKNOWNS ( n)
24
136
63
8
46
21
14}
28
16
1. 19
Sunlight on mirror
Sunlight on aluminum
Sunlight on plaster,
stone, or soil
Brighter than moon
Like moon or duller
than moon
Not stated
143
42
48
15
61
22
3.52
3. 27
878
296
293
0.03
Total
1286
434
434
10.68
Degrees of freedom
2.67
4
5%
9.5
13. 3
1%
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Another interesting aspect of these new tests is that there are only
two large discrepancies in all of the groups. These are for the 11 or more
groups in the classification by number of objects per sighting and for the
over-400-mph and meteor-like group for the classification by speed. The
first was relatively unchanged by deletion of the astronomical sightings
principally because of the concentration of sightings in the single-object
category. The second was slightly increased by the removal of the astro
nomical sightings from the meteor-like classification. However, the main
discrepancy, that of the excess of UNKNOWNS in the over-400-mph class,
was little changed.
The results of these tests are inconclusive since they neither confirm
nor deny that the UNKNOWNS are primarily unidentified KNOWNS, although
they do indicate that relatively few of the UNKNOWNS are actually astro
nomical phenomena.
It was decided that this process would not be carried to its logical
conclusion {that is, the determination of a linear combination of KNOWNS
that would give a negligible chi square when compared with the UNKNOWNS),
since it was felt that the inaccuracies in the reports would give a distorted
and meaningless result.
The "Flying Saucer" Model
The importance of the problem dictated a second approach, should the
statistical results prove inconclusive. It was decided that an attempt
would be made to describe the physical appearance, flight characteristics,
and other attributes {that is, construct a model) of a class or classes of
"flying saucers".
Preparatory to this attempt, a re-evaluation of the UNKNOWNS was
necessary. This re-evaluation was accomplished by a panel composed only
of persons previously associated with the work. Using all the UNKNOWNS
reports available at ATIC, the panel made a careful study of the reports for
the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and
7 - those .groups for which the sun was either above the horizon or less than
10° in elevation below the horizon.
This study had two purposes. The first was to determine, with
additional information such as the angle of elevation of the sun, how many
of the UNKNOWNS might be ascribed to known phenomena. The second was
to obtain those UNKNOWNS which were described in sufficient detail that
they might be used to construct a model or models of "flying saucers".
It was decided to put any of the UNKNOWNS which might be known
phenomena into a "possible KNOWN" category to denote the slightly lower
confidence level which could be ascribed to these new evaluations. The
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UNKNOWNS with sufficiently detailed description would be called II good
UNKNOWNS", while the remainder would simply be called UNKNOWNS.
One hundred sixty-four folders of a total of 186 OBJECT SIGHTINGS in
Groups 1, 2, 3, 6, and 7 were examined. There were 18 possible aircraft,
20 possible balloons, 7 good UNKNOWNS, 100 UNKNOWNS, and 19 others
which were identified as being possible KNOWNS of various types. It is
interesting to note that two of these were established as mock suns on the
basis of the angle of sun elevation and the sun bearing angle, together with
the direction of the object from the observer. In addition, the UNKNOWNS
in angle-of-sun-elevation Groups 4 and 5 (nighttime sightings) were scanned
with no attempt at identification, but to find any possible "good UNKNOWNS".
There were five sightings that could be put into this category.
Of the UNKNOWNS, there were approximately 20 sightings that were
observed in such a way that they should have been recognized easily if they
had been familiar objects, that is, there was little possibility that their
shapes, as seen, could have been distorted sufficiently by one cause or
another to render them unrecognizable. There were a very few that would
have been identified as guided missiles or rockets, but that were not so
identified because of the geographical location in which they were seen.
All of the remaining UNKNOWNS were classified as such solely be
cause they were reported to have performed maneuvers that could not be
ascribed to any known objects. In these cases, the shape might have been
unrecognizable also, but it was felt that this was because of distortion and
distance, or because of darkness.
This is a very important point. To put it differently, if these
UNKNOWNS, which represent all but about 40 of the UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS,
were reported to have performed maneuvers which could be ascribed to
known phenomena, they would p r o ~ have been identified as KNOWNS.
With the exception of some radar sightings, all of these maneuvers were
observed visually. The possibilities for inaccuracies are great because
of the inability of an observer to estimate visually size, distance, and
speed.
Reports of sightings by radar usually were of high-speed objects,
some at extremely high altitudes. Some were identified as UNKNOWNS
because there was no object to be seen visually at the point indicated by the
radar set. It cannot be said with any assurance what these radar sightings
mean, but the most logical explanation is that they are ground targets re
flected by an atmospheric temperature inversion layer. The validity of this
statement cannot be established. It is felt that radar sightings in this study
are of no significance whatsoever unless a visual sighting of the object also
1s made.
Taken in conjunction with the Chi Square Tests discussed earlier,
the results of the re-evaluation of reports identified as UNKNOWN
SIGHTINGS would seem to indicate that the majority of them could easily
77
have been familiar objects. However, the resolution of this question with
any degree of certainty appears to be impossible.
Thus, out of the 434 OBJECT SIGHTINGS that were identified as.
UNKNOWNS by the data reduction process, there were only 12 that were
described with sufficient detail that they could be used in an attempt to
derive a model of a "flying saucer". The following is a summary of the 12
good UNKNOWN SIGHTINGS:
Case I {Serial 0573. 00)
Two men employed by a rug-cleaning firm were driving across a
bridge at 0955 hours on July 29, 1948, when they saw an object glide across
the road a few hundred feet in front of them. It was shiny and metallic in
construction, about 6 to 8 feet long and 2 feet wide. It was in a flat glide
path at an altitude of about 30 feet and in a moderate turn to the left. It was
seen for only a few seconds and apparently went down in a wooded area,
although no trace of it was found.
6' to 8'
1-1/2' X 2'
These are round cups which protrude
Case II {Serial 4508. 00)
A naval aviation student, his wife, and several others were at a
drive-in movie from 2115 to 2240 hours on April 20, 1952, during which
time they saw several groups of objects fly over. There were from two to
nine objects in a group and there were about 20 groups. The groups of
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objects flew in a straight line except for some changes in direction
accomplished in a manner like any standard aircraft turn.
The objects were shaped like conventional aircraft. The unaccount
able feature of the objects was that each had a red glow surrounding it and
was glowing itself, although it was a cloudless night.
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Case III (Serial 2013. 00, 2014. 00, and 2014. 01)
Two tower operators sighted a light over a city airport at 2020 hours
on January 20, 1951. Since a commercial plane was taking off at this
time, the pilots were asked to investigate this light. They observed it at
2026 hours. According to them, it flew abreast of them at a greater
radius as they made their climbing turn, during which time it blinked some
lights which looked like running lights. While the observing plane was still
in it.s climbing turn, the object made a turn toward the plane and flew across
its nose. As the two men turned their heads to watch it, it instantly
appeared on their other side flying in the same direction as they were
flying, and then in 2 or 3 seconds it slipped under them, and they did not
see it again. Total time of the observation was not stated. In appearance,
it was like an airplane with a cigar-shaped body and straight wings, some
what larger than a B-29. No engine nacelles were observed on the wings.
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\_
Case N (Serial 4599. 00)
A part-time farmer and a hired hand were curing tobacco at midnight
on July 19, 1952, when they looked up and saw two cigar-shaped objects.
One hovered while the other moved to the east and came back, at which
tin1e both ascended until out of sight. Duration of observation was 3 to 4
minutes. Both had an exhaust at one end, and neither had projections of any
kind. It was stated that they appeared to be transparent and illuminated
from the inside.
Lighted
Exhaust
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Case V (Serial 0565. 00 to 0565. 03)
A pilot and copilot were flying a DC-3 at 0340 hours on July 24, 1948,
when they saw an object coming toward them. It passed to the right and
slightly above them, at which time it went into a steep climb and was lost
from sight in some clouds. Duration of the observation was about 10
seconds. One passenger was able to catch a flash of light as the object
passed. The object seemed powered by rocket or jet motors shooting a
trail of fire some 50 feet to the rear of the object. The object had no wings •
or other protrusion and had two rows of lighted windows.
Cockpit
windshield?
Pilot
Black
Copilot
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Case VI (Serial 4822. 00)
An instrument technician, while driving from a large city toward an
Air Force base on December 22, 1952, saw an object from his car at 1930
hours. He stopped his car to watch it. It suddenly moved up toward the
zenith in spurts from right to left at an angle of about 45°. It then moved
off in level flight at a high rate of speed, during which maneuver it appeared
white most of the time, but apparently rolled three times showing a red
·side. About halfway through its roll it showed no light at all. It finally
assumed a position to the south of the planet Jupiter at a high altitude, at
which position it darted back and forth, left and right alternately. Total
time of the observation was 15 minutes. Apparently, the observer just
stopped watching the object.
Deep red
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Case VII (Serial 2728. 00}
A Flight Sergeant saw an object over an Air Force base in Korea at
0842 hours on June 6, 1952. The object flew in a series of spinning and
tumbling actions. It was on an erratic course, first flying level, then
stopping momentarily, shooting straight up, flying level and again tumbling,
then changing course and disappearing into the sun. It reappeared and was
seen flying back and forth across the sun. At one time an F-86 passed
between the observer and the _object. He pointed it out to another man who
saw it as it maneuvered near the sun.
Black lines evenly spaced
Proportion 7 to 1
(Dimensions are as
shown in observer's
original drawing)
83
Case VIII (Serial 0576. 00)
An electrician was standing by the bathroom window of his home,
facing west, at 0825 hours on July 31, 1948, when he first sighted an object.
He ran to his kitchen where he pointed out the object to his wife. Total
time in sight was approximately 10 seconds, during which the object flew
on a straight and level course from horizon to horizon, west to east.
f
6' to 8'
20'
(Ratio approx. 3:1)
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Case IX (Serial 0066. 00)
A farmer and his two sons, aged 8 and 10, were at his fishing camp
on August 13, 1947. At about 1300 hours, he went to look for the boys,
having sent them to the river for some tape from his boat. He noticed an
object some 300 feet away, 75 feet above the ground. He saw it against
the background of the canyon wall which was 400 feet high at this point. It
was hedge hopping, following the contour of the ground, was sky blue,
about 20 feet in diameter and 10 feet thick, and had pods on the side from
which flames were shooting out. It made a swishing sound. The observer
stated that the trees were highly agitated by the craft as it passed over.
His two sons also observed the object. No one saw the object for more
than a few seconds.
. Side view
End view
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Case X (Serial 1119. 00}
An employee in the supersonic laboratory of an aeronautical lab
oratory and some other employees of this lab, were by a river, 2- 1/2
miles from its mouth, yvhen they saw an object. The time was about 1700
hours on May 24, 1949. The object was reflecting sunlight when observed
by naked eye. However, he then looked at it with 8-power binoculars, at
which time there was no glare. (Did glasses have filter?} It was of
metallic construction and was seen with good enough resolution to show
that the skin was dirty. It moved off in horizontal flight at a gradually in
creasing rate of speed, until it seemed to approach the speed of a jet
before it disappeared. No propulsion was apparent. Time of observation
was 2- 1/2 to 3 minutes.
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Something equivalent
to a patch
Direction
of motion
/
in rear
Surface appeared dirty
and spotty in color
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Case XI (Serial 1550. 00}
On March 20, 1950, a Reserve Air Force Captain and an airlines
Captain were flying a commercial airlines flight. At 21:26, the airline
Captain directed the attention of the Reserve Air Force Captain to an object
which apparently was flying at high speed, approaching the airliner from
the south on a north heading. The Reserve Air Force Captain focused his
attention on the object. Both crew members watched it as it passed in front
of them and went out of sight to the right. The observation, which lasted
about 25 to 35 seconds, occurred about 15 miles north of a medium-sized
city. When the object passed in front of the airliner, it was not more than
1/2 mile distant and at an altitude of about 1000 feet higher than the airliner.
The object appeared to be circular, with a diameter of approximately
100 feet and with a vertical height considerably less than the diameter,
giving the object a disc-like shape. In the top center was a light which was
blinking at an estimated 3 flashes per second. This light was so brilliant
that it would have been impossible to look at it continuously had it not been
blinking. This light could be seen only when the object was approaching
and after it had passed the airliner. When the object passed in front of the
observers, the bottom side was visible. The bottom side appeared to have
9 to 12 symmetrical oval or circular portholes located in a circle approxi
mately 3/4 of the distance from the center to the outer edge. Through these
portholes came a soft purple light about the shade of aircraft fluorescent
lights. The object was traveling in a straight line without spinning. Con
sidering the visibility, the length of time the object was in sight, and the
distance from the object, the Reserve Air Force Captain estimates the
speed to be in excess of 1000 mph.
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Flashing light
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Case XII (Serial 3601. 00)
At 0535 on the morning of August 25, 1952, a musician for a radio
station was driving to work from his home when he noticed an object
hovering about 10 feet above a field near the road along which he was
driving. As he came abreast of the object, he stopped his car and got out
to watch. Having an artificial leg, he could not leave the road, since the
surrounding terrain was rough. However, he was within about 100 yards
of it at the point he was standing on the road. The object was not absolutely
still, but seemed to rock slightly as it hovered. When he turned off the
motor of his car, he could hear a deep throbbing sound coming from the
object. As he got out of the car, the object began a vertical ascent with a
sound similar to "a large covey of quail starting to fly at one time". The
object ascended vertically through broken clouds until out of sight. His
view was not obscured by clouds. The observer states that the vegetation
was blown about by the object when it was near the ground.
Description of the object is as follows:
It was about 75 feet long, 45 feet wide, and 15 feet thick, shaped like
two oval meat platters placed together. It was a dull aluminum color, and
had a smooth surface. A medium-blue continuous light shone through the
one window in the front section. The head and shoulders of one man, sitting
motionless, facing the forward edge of the object, were visible. In the
midsection of the object were several windows extending from the top to the
rear edge of the object; the midsection of the ship had a blue light which
gradually changed to different shades. There was a large amount of activity
and movement in the midsection that could not be identified as either human
or mechanical, although it did not have a regular pattern of movement.
There were no windows, doors or portholes, vents, seams, etc., visible
to the observer in the rear section of the object or under the object (viewed
at time of ascent). Another identifiable feature was a series of propellers
6 to 12 inches in diameter spaced closely together along the outer edge of
the object. These propellers were mounted on a bracket so that they
revolved in a horizontal plane along the edge of the object. The propellers
were revolving at a high rate of speed.
Investigation of the area soon afterward showed some evidence of
vegetation being blown around. An examination of grass and soil samples
taken indicated nothing unusual. Reliability of the observer was considered
good.
89
20' to 25'
height
.....,._____ Approximately
----~
75' long
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These 12 sightings can be classed into four categories on the basis of
their shapes, as follows:
( l} Propeller shape - Case I
(2) Aircraft shape - Cases II and III
(3) Cigar shape - Cases IV and V
(4) Elliptical or disc shape - Cases VI to XII
The criterion for choosing the above sightings was that their descrip
tions were given in enough detail to permit diagrams of the objects to be
drawn. It might be noted here that in all but one of these cases (Case XI)
the observer had already drawn a diagram of what he had seen.
The objective of this section of the study was the conceiving of a
model, or models. The requirement that the description be detailed is an
important one, and was the easiest to determine in the re-evaluation pro
gram. However, a good model ought to satisfy the following conditions as
well:
( 1)
The general shape of the object and the maneuvers it
performed should fit the reports of many of the UNKNOWNS
and thus explain them.
(2)
The observer and the report should be reliable.
(3}
The report should contain elements which should have
been observed with accuracy, and which eliminate the
possibility that the sighting could be ascribed to a
familiar object or to a known natural phenomenon.
( 4}
The model should be derived from two or more good
UNKNOWNS between which there is no essential conflict.
It can be shown that it is not possible to deduce a model from the 12
cases that will satisfy all of these conditions. The following case-by-case
discussion of the 12 good UNKNOWNS will illustrate this point:
( 1)
Case I does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 4. The reported
shape of this object is not duplicated in any of the other
UNKNOWNS.
• (2)
Case II does not satisfy Conditions 1 and 3. There are
very few UNKNOWNS in the aircraft shape classification.
In addition, the unusual characteristic of this sighting
(i.e., the red glow) could have been reflection of the
lights of Flint from the objects if they were either birds
or aircraft.
91
(3) Case III does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not
satisfy Condition 4 when Case II is eliminated as a
good UNKNOWN.
(4)
Case IV does not satisfy Conditions 1 or 2. There are
few cigar-shaped or rocket-shaped objects reported in
the literature. In addition, this observer is not con
sidered to be well-qualified technically.
(5) Case V does not satisfy Condition 1. It also does not
satisfy Condition 4 when Case IV is eliminated as a
good UNKNOWN.
It might be argued here that many of the UNKNOWNS might actually
have shapes similar to these good UNKNOWNS. It will be noted, however,
that each of these five cases does not satisfy one of the other three condi
tions.
(6)
Case VI does not satisfy Condition 2. In the description
of the object, it was stated that at certain times there
was no light seen from the object. Apparently, the
"band of no light", as diagrammed by the observer, was
an attempt to explain this. However, if the object were
constructed as shown in the diagram, light should have
been seen at all times. Because of this conflict the
drawing is not considered reliable, and without the draw
ing, there is not enough detail in the description to make
it useful for this study.
(7) Case VII violates Conditions 1 and 4. Although the shape
is disc-like, the maneuvers performed by the object are
unique both among the UNKNOWNS and among the good
UNKNOWNS.
Cases VIII to XII satisfy Conditions 1 through 3, but they do not
satisfy Condition 4. The features which make them different from each
other are as follows:
(8) Case VIII. The object is smooth, with no protrusions
or other details.
( 9)
Case IX. The object had rocket or jet pods on each
side that were shooting out flames.
(10)
Case X.
( 11)
Case XI. The object had a series of portholes, or
windows, on its under side.
The,object had a fin or rudder.
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(12) Case XII. The object had windows in its top and front
and its top midsection. It also had a set of propellers
around its waist.
It is not possible, therefore, to derive a verified model of a "flying
saucer" from the data that have been gathered to date. This point is im
portant enough to emphasize. Out of about 4,000 people who said they saw
a "flying saucer", sufficiently detailed descriptions were given in only 12
cases. Having culled the cream of the crop, it is still impossible to develop
a picture of what a "flying saucer" is.
In addition to this study of the good UNKNOWNS, an attempt was made
to find groups of UNKNOWNS for which the observed characteristics were
the same. No such groups were found.
On the basis of this evidence, therefore, there is a low probability
that any of the UNKNOWNS represent observations of a class of "flying
saucers". It may be that some reports represent observations of not one
but several classes of objects that might have been "flying saucers";
however, the lack of evidence to confirm even one class would seem to make
this possibility remote. It is pointed out that some of the cases of KNOWNS,
before identification, appeared fully as bizarre as any of the 12 cases of
good UNKNOWNS, and, in fact, would have been placed in the class of good
UNKNOWNS had it not been possible to establish their identity.
This is, of course, contrary to the bulk of the publicity that has been
given to this problem. The reason for the nature of this publicity was
clearly brought out during the re-evaluation study. It is a definite fact that
upon reading a few reports, the reader becomes convinced that "flying
saucers" are real and are some form of sinister contrivance. This reaction
is independent of the training of the reader or of his attitude toward the
problem prior to the initial contact. It is unfortunate that practically all of
the articles, books, and news stories dealing with the phenomenon of the
"flying saucer" were written by men who were in this category, that is,
men who had read only a few selected reports. This is accentuated by the
fact that, as a rule, only the more lurid-sounding reports are cited in these
publications. Were it not for this common psychological tendency to be
captivated by the mysterious, it is possible that no problem of this nature
would exist.
The reaction, mentioned above, that after reading a few reports, the
reader is convinced that "flying saucers" are real and are some form of
sinister contrivance, is very misleading. As more and more of the reports
are read, the feeling that "saucers" are real fades, and is replaced by a
feeling of skepticism regarding their existence .. The reader eventually
reaches a point of saturation, after which the reports contain no new infor
mation at all and are no longer of any interest. This feeling of surfeit was
universal among the personnel who worked on this project, and continually
necessitated a conscious effort on their part to remain objective.
93
CONCLUSIONS
It can never be absolutely proven that "flying saucers" do not exist.
This would be true if the data obtained were to include complete scientific
measurements of the attributes of each sighting, as well as complete and
detailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It might be possible to demon
strate the existence of "flying saucers" with data of this type, IF they were
to exist.
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not contain
scientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, it was possible
to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of statistical
methods in the treatment of the data. Scientifically evaluated and arranged,
the data as a whole did not show any marked patterns or trends. The in
accuracies inherent in this type of data, in addition to the incompleteness of
a large proportion of the reports, may have obscured any patterns Qr trends
that otherwise would have been evident. This absence of indicative relation
ships necessitated an exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order
to draw any valid conclusions.
A critical examination of the distributions of the important char
acteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings evaluated
as UNKNOWN, led to the conclusion that a combination of factors, prin
cipally the reported maneuvers of the objects and the unavailability of
supplemental data such as aircraft flight plans or balloon-launching records,
resulted in the failure to identify as KNOWNS most of the reports of objects
classified as UNKNOWNS.
An intensive study, aimed at finding a verified example of a "flying
saucer" or at deriving a verified model or models of "flying saucers" {as
defined on Page 1), led to the conclusion that neither goal could be attained
using the pre sent data.
It is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid evidence
consisting of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial
object.
Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in this
study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely small, since the
most complete and reliable reports from the present data, when isolated
and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough model, and since
the data as a whole failed to reveal any marked patterns or trends.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is
considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of unidentified
aerial objects examined in this study represent observations of technologi
cal developments outside the range of present-day scientific knowledge.
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APPENDIX A
TABULATIONS OF FREQUENCY AND PERCENTAGE
DISTRIBUTIONS BY CHARACTERISTICS
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95 and 96
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INDEX OF TABLES
Page
Table Al.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Years
107
Table AZ.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Years
107
Table A3.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Years
108
Table A4.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, All Years.
109
Table AS.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1947
110
Table A6.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1948
111
Table A7.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1949
112
Table A8.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1950
113
Table A9.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1951
114
Table Al0.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Month of Year, 1952
115
Table Al 1.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, All Years
116
Table AlZ.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1947
117
Table Al3.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1948
118
Table Al4.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1949
119
Table Al 5.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1950
120
Table Al 6.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1951
121
Table Al 7.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Month of Year, 1952
122
Table Al 8.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, All Years
123
Table Al 9.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1947
124
Table AZO.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1948
125
Table AZl.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1949·
126
Table AZZ.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1950
127
Table A23.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1951
128
Table A24.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Month of Year, 1952
129
Table A25.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years
130
Table A26.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947
130
Table A27.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948
130
Table A28.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949
130
Table A29.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950
131
Table A30.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951
131
Table A31.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952
131
Table A32.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years
132
Table A33.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947 .
132
97
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A34.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948 .
132
Table A35.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949
132
Table A36.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950
133
Table A37.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951
133
Table A38.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952 .
133
Table A39.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, All Years
134
Table A40.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1947
134
Table A41.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1948
134
Table A42.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1949
134
Table A43.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1950
135
Table A44.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1951
135
Table A45.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Sighting Reliability Groups, 1952
135
Table A46.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
136
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
136
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1947 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
136
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1947 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
136
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
137
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1948 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
137
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
137
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1949 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
137
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
138
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1950 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
138
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1951 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
138
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1951 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
138
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1952 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Military Observers
139
Table A47.
Table A48.
Table A49.
Table AS0.
Table A51.
Table A52.
Table A53.
Table A54.
Table A55.
Table A56.
Table A57.
Table ASS.
98
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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table A59.
Evaluation of All Sightings for 1952 by Sighting Reliability Groups,
Civilian Observers
139
Table A60.
Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, All Sightings
140
Table A61.
Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Unit Sightings
140
Table A62.
Reported Colors of Objects Sighted by Years, Object Sightings
140
Table A63.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported .
141
Table A64.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported
142
Table A65.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported
143
Table A66.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object
144
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects .
144
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects •
145
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .
145
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .
146
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object
147
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects .
147
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects .
148
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .
148
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .
149
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
One Object
150
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Two Objects •
150
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Three to Ten Objects .
151
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Eleven or More Objects .
151
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting,
Number of Objects Not Stated .
152
Table ABl.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years
153
Table A82.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947
153
Table A67.
Table A68.
Table A69.
Table A 70.
Table A 71.
Table A 72.
Table A 73.
Table A 74.
Table A 7 5.
Table A 76.
Table A 77.
Table A 78.
Table A 79.
Table ABO.
99
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A83.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948
154
Table A84.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949
• 154
Table A85.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950
155
Table A86.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1951
155
Table A87.
Evaluation of All Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952
156
Taole ABB.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years
157
Table A89.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947
157
Table A90.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948
158
Table A91.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949
158
Table A92.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950
159
Table A93.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1951
159
Table A94.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952
160
Table A95.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, All Years.
161
Table A 96.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1947
161
Table A 97.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1948
162
Table A 98.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1949
162
Table A99.
Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1950
163
Table Al00. Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sightings, 1951
163
Table Al0l. Evaluation of Object Sightings by Duration of Sighting, 1952
164
Table Al02.
Table Al 03.
Table Al 04.
Table Al 05.
Table Al06.
Table Al07.
Table Al 08.
Table Al 09.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less
165
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds
166
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds .
167
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds
168
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes .
169
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes
170
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes
171
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated .
172
100
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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table AllO.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less
173
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds
174
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds .
175
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds
176
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes •
177
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes
178
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes
179
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated .
180
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Five Seconds or Less
181
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Ten Seconds
182
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Eleven to Thirty Seconds •
183
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Thirty One to Sixty Seconds
184
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Sixty One Seconds to Five Minutes .
185
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Six to Thirty Minutes
186
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Over Thirty Minutes
187
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Duration of Sighting for Months
of Year, Duration Not Stated •
188
Table Al26.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical
189
Table Al27.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft
189
Table Al 28.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet
190
Table Al29.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular, Conical,
or Teardrop
190
Table Al30.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame
191
Table Al3l.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes
191
Table Al32.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated
192
Table A 111.
Table All2.
Table A 113.
Table All4.
Table All 5.
Table All6.
Table Al 17.
Table All 8.
Table All 9.
Table AlZ0.
Table Al2l.
Table Al22.
Table Al 23.
Table Al24.
Table Al 25.
101
INDEX OF TABLES
(Contin~ed)
Page
Table Al 33.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical •
193
Table Al 34.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft
193
Table Al35.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet
194
Table Al 36.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular,
Conical, or Teardrop
194
Table A 137.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame
195
Table Al38.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes.
195
Table Al 39.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated
196
Table Al40.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Elliptical
197
Table Al41.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Rocket and Aircraft
197
Table Al42.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Meteor or Comet
198
Table Al43.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Lenticular,
Conical, or Teardrop
198
Table A 144.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Flame
199
Table Al45.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Other Shapes
199
Table Al46.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Shape of Object, Shape Not Stated.
200
Table Al47.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary
201
Table Al48.
Evaluation of All Sightings for AU Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less
Than One Hundred Miles per Hour .
201
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One
Hundred to Four Hundred Miles per Hour
202
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour
202
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .
203
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated .
203
Table Al 53.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary.
204
Table Al 54.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less Than
One Hundred Miles per Hour .
204
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One Hundred
to Four Hundred Miles per Hour
205
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour
205
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .
206
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated .
206
Table Al49.
Table Al 50.
Table Al 51.
Table Al 52.
Table Al 55.
Table Al56.
Table Al 57.
Table Al 58.
102
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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table Al 59.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Stationary
207
Table Al60.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Less
Than One Hundred Miles per Hour .
207
Elevation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, One
Hundred to Four Hundred Miles per Hour.
208
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects, Over
Four Hundred Miles per Hour.
208
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Meteor-Like Speeds .
209
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Reported Speeds of Objects,
Speed Not Stated •
209
Table Al65.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness.
210
Table Al66.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness
211
Table Al67.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Light Brightness
212
Table Al68.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, All Years
213
Table Al69.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1947
214
Table Al70.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1948
215
Table Al71.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1949
216
Table Al 72.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1950
217
Table Al 73.
Location of Observer During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1951
Table Al 74.
Location of Observers During Sighting by Months for All Sightings, 1952
219
Table Al 75.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .
220
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Obje:::ts .
220
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated
221
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Golors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects •
221
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects .
222
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects
222
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects .
223
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors
223
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .
224
Table Al 61.
Table Al 62.
Table Al63.
Table Al64.
Table Al 76.
Table Al 77.
Table Al 78.
Table Al 79.
Table Al 80.
Table AlBl.
Table Al 82.
Table Al83.
103
.
218
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table Al84.
Table Al85.
Table Al86.
Table Al87.
Table Al88.
Table Al 89.
Table Al 90.
Table Al 91.
Table Al 92.
Table Al 93.
Table Al 94.
Table Al 95.
Table Al 96.
Table Al 97.
Table Al 98.
Table Al 99.
Table A200.
Table A201.
Table A202.
Table A203.
Table A204.
Table A205.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Objects .
224
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated
225
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects .
225
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects
226
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects
226
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects •
227
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors
227
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, White or Glowing White Objects .
228
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Metallic Objects .
228
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Object Color Not Stated
229
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Orange or Glowing Orange Objects .
229
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Red or Glowing Red Objects .
230
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Green or Glowing Green Objects.
230
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Yellow or Glowing Yellow Objects .
231
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Colors Reported for Duration
of Sighting, Objects of Other Colors
231
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object
232
Evaluation of All Sightings for Ali Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .
232
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects •
233
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects .
233
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated
234
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object
235
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .
235
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INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table A206.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects .
236
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting'
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects .
236
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated
237
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, One Object
238
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Two Objects .
238
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Three to Ten Objects •
239
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Eleven or More Objects •
239
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Number of Objects per Sighting
for Duration of Sighting, Number of Objects Not Stated •
240
Table A214.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location
241
Table A215.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location
241
Table A216.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by Geographic Location
242
Table A2 l 7.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by North American Location.
243
Table A218.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by North American Location
243
Table A219.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by North American Location
244
Table A220.
Evaluation of All Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location
245
Table A221.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location
246
Table A222.
Evaluation of Object Sightings for All Years by United States Regional Location
247
Table A223.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region
248
Table A224.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region
248
Table A225.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region
248
Table A226.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region
249
Table A227.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region .
249
Table A228.
Evaluation of All Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region
249
Table A229.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region
250
Table A230.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region
250
Table A231.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region .
250
Table A232.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region
251
Table A207.
Table A208.
Table A209.
Table A210.
Table A211.
Table A212.
Table A213.
INDEX OF TABLES
(Continued)
Page
Table A233.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region
251
Table A234.
Evaluation of Unit Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region
251
Table A235.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central East Region
252
Table A236.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Midwest Region
252
Table A237.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the Central Farwest Region
252
Table A238.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Midwest Region .
253
Table A239.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South West Region .
253
Table A240.
Evaluation of Object Sightings in the Strategic Areas of the South Farwest Region .
253
106
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
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I
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I
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IV
7'/l.tlL£
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Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Evaluation
().Balloon
t1tJ
l·Astronomical
4'1/,
2•Aircraft
H'i
/xtJ ¢.ti 1.4 St, /t/tl
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Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain lloublful Total
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Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cerlaon Ooubltul Total Ceit11R iiouiiiiiii
-- - - ~ ~ Number
L.tJ
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Total
2100
Evaluation
Per Cent
Nunter
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Oooblhl Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu
7-Psychological
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Total
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Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Nuni>er
Certain Doublful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Domtlul Total Certain Ooobtlu Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doublful Total Certain DouLtfu
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7
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Total
1111 1;7 ?!:,I/ '11.f ~f./ /tl().
Evaluation
Per Cent
NuCertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
£5'
O.Balloon
I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
21!,t/2,
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Total Certain lloobllul Toi.al
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Numbet'
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Number
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g
102 115~
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Total Certain .Doobtlll Total
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J? ,,,; II 1 5% / 7..~ '1 II 19% 1/IJ9 11.1 11.5 IH~
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Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
{J
£~
w
/f.?/
Nwnbe1
5' ?1 /,1.;, .t4 1-t.?
4
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tJ /J.(J O.tl /J.O
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5--Clouds,0ust, etc.
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3-Light Phenom.
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J. 9 S9 JJ/.1
1'
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t?.7 2.tl ,Z/,
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Per Cent
Number
,j
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f!!, '7,/ 111,:0 gz 21/2 25
/!, nL 12.'1 "-(9 /'ti.
;,:,
/)/J
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0.0 19.0
(}
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/7./1
0
ti
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Per Cent
Number
,<n
4.t • I~
j".',;
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21,
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217.0 tl.O 12~,:,
1./J IJ, 9
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1-Asbonolaical
2-Airaaft
Higt,tPhenom.
4-Birds
6-lnsulli~ ~b.
7-Psydlllo&ical
!Mllber
/fc.?
Evaluation
q
;t/
I
17
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17
IJ
;t/ If.I,
IJ.t) /J.t,
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tJ.O 116 11/K
I
I
t, IJ.K
IJ.f
fJ
tJ
n 27.1
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tl.lJ 21.f .ftJJ
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tJ
7
tJ.tJ 5:f
tJ
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4-Birds
IJ
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/).f}
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/J
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tJ
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N
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_N
t:J
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Total
139
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z /?.
n
17
3-Li&lltl'll!nom.
fl/
1-Astrooomical
Nulll>er
Per Cenl
Nu•ber
ertain Oooblful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cellain Ooublfu
n; 119
?.5 ?.I N 1t 111 UI
I, IN.Ji' ,,,,
fl ,, / :2 11.,I /. I ,i..
ti !d.t/ .;:tJ 11.¢ 19.1 171. fl,f l:t.? II 7 I'll/I
1, IJ.i tJi It H
Fl .19 I.? A.f ?I.
I /}/} /JX /I~
1
S" t./ /15 /J 'l /JS
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u 1.5'.IJ s.3 Jli'.1
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/Jn
11./J
0-BailOCMI
2-Airaaft
/~-2.
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Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Certain OOUblful Total Certain Oooblful Total Certain Doubtful Total Ceflain Ooublld Total
,,,,
,,,,,
/Jn
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19 1!.IJ n/J U/J
9 15 /.Ji' f;,J
.3 tl Iii. 9 ff?..3 ;:(? Jtl/J.
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14
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108
Pe,C<nl
Total Cerbin OOJbtful • Tot.t
I
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I
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I
I
1
I
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tfLL
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F r6J<?(,IA~~
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3
l•Aslnlnomical
2'1
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3-Li;,tPho,om.
0
I-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ el~
0
0
6-lnsuffl~lnlo.
9
,,,3 6 2.1 n 4'.
~
15 'l.J.3 H.fl ff/
3 9 1/.'f 2.;
0 0 o. 0 0.6 0. 0
0
0
0
'1.7 0.0
16
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/7.1 '3S.S 1
17
'I
s
0
0
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0
o.o
Q. G 0.0
()
n.D
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()
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,
0
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1(,
0
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q
2, l'f.
0
1--
0
I
10
0,7
7-3
B
0
Total
A~H''Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Cer1Jin Doubtful Total Certain Dou!>lfUI Toi"/.]
J I (J 3-) l . f j'.(J
9.t :7.~ 12.,
0
'I
0
Q
0
~
M,1,:,c,.
I
I
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I
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7 30 13,9 'f.1 li,J
0
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Q
!i 3 0 o.o J. 0
0 o. 0 o.o q. D s
0 /).{, 0. 0 o.o
I
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0
/J
0 12 11:l o.o 11.3
0.0 l'I.O 12
()
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0 o.o 0.0
0 o. D o.O 0.0
IG 17-2 o.o 17.1 1'f 0
17.f 0,0 17.~
0.() i.6
I 17 18 o., JP.:J 10.1,
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o.o
,..,
'19 ,,,
JC 0 'l.f JQ,S
'f
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9
3' JI/ I
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0
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I.>, I 13
"·' 5."
0 O.D
o.O o.o 0
e a.,
83 SJ l36 (,J.C 3f.Q ,no. n. 2/ '13 m n, 119, // 7
,.1
7
20
,; I 1},7
l'f
M
If
I
s- :1
0
0
0
u
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10.• 1q.1 /00· l7f
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O.I
2' 110
0
0 :/ /.P
0 J7 78.S'
0 '2 /.Q
'2!
'f. p
!R._P
o.o Q,5
7,S
o.s
O.P o.o
o. (J IJ.C
o.o /,Q
o.q 2f'.
0,0
J.0
200 8f.S 10 S /l}P.
0-BallOCNI
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NAv
A11,11,:,r
,T11 v
Nmnbef
Percent
Number
Per Cent
PerCmt
Namer
Per Cenl
Numbef
Certain Doubtful Totll Certain Doublful Tolal Certain Doul>tful Totll Certain Doubllu Tola! ~ertain Doubtful Tolal Certain Dou!>llul Total Certan DoulilfU Total Certain DooblfUI Tota
If; IS.~ 2 ,6 16.~ IC!O H IS5' /0.8
2f 12.~ ).t />.D 3•
21./
/0 3f 'I 't BJ 7, Rlf- /.rf
1-A-ical
JB
2-Aircralt
15
3
Enluation
Hipll'tl010m.
s
0
I-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc.
8
6-lnsuffi~lnfo.
72
'fl)
12.,
3
{,
1.5
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IJ
'f.J
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5. 7 Ii.ti IJJ
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0
()
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0.0
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o.o
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t.
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n~ 19!;
8
0
0
I
Q.Q
P.Q
3q fqf 1f.? ;2!)./ /00. 192
If 6
n.o o..1 n.,
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13
'f.l,
Total
IH
0- p 1/1.~
2.- I 6,
I I-{
u
2.P C,'
It
II '12 llf.8 f,l U,() 'I 0
37 fl t,.7 /7,/,. .11/.J //
2 3 n: < /. D 1.5 I
1. 3 0,5 ,.o /.f J
I 'f UJ
I-Birds
I
I
S-Clouds, Dost, etc.
0
7-Psychololical
:io
3
1-UnknoMI
H
6-Jnsuffi~ Info.
?_r,
J.~ o.'t J.'J If a
" ""
2.18 7f.B
2f.) 106,
9-0lller
&'
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I
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0,0
20
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3 /."'
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3-11
103
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11
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II
'16 92'/ 75, 7 2lf. 3 //J.0.
o.s , I
(, 7 lf2 &!./ 3'1,'! !PO.
109
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0
0
n.O
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n.o
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P.0 B'
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l I /. 'I
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7 18 2-1
0. 2 )../
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21.9
I. J
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lJ(,
PFc,,._,r,H
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7
Ir,
57 17. I 17. 7 39.I
27 t.7 fl 11.,f
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M, •=c_.LI
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Number
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Number
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Per Call
Total Certain Doubtful Total
0-Balloon
l-Aslnllloln1ul
b,.
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Number
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I
0
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0-Balloon
0
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I
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()
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Number
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1
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0
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n
()
iJ
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0
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0
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9-0ttie,
Total
0
()
/1
(
()
5 !61
()
0
0
0
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0.0
0
0
0
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7./
0, 0 7.J
0
II
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0
0. Q o. 0 o.o
3 lt-7 o.o ll7
0
0
0
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0.0 n.o o.o
I
()
I
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I
0
I
I
0
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7
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()
0
0
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0
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t /().5 O.P 10.5
p o.D 0. O O.P
() o. 0
0-P o.Q
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5 u., o.o 26-3
I
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()
f
0
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Number
Number
Per Cent
PerCenl
Nurrtier
Pe< Cent
PerCmt
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooobtful Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu Total Certain Doubtful Total
S' /0.f) J, 5 ,i.s
(, 17-5 10.0 175
7 /0, 0 7.5 17-6
0 o.o D-0 Q.Q
0 (/.{) o.o 0.1)
0 o.o 11.a d.O
'I
I
It
2·Aircrafl
7
4
l·Lichl Phenom.
0
4-Birds
0
0
0
ft.Clouds. Oust. etc.
0
/I
0
0
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~
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q
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I,
C
f,
l.f.O
0-0
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0
0
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I
()
I
3
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I
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3
0
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p
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I
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6
I
p
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lf.P
00 5.f
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I
n
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3
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I o. 0 t.:J. C,]
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0
0. 0
o.~
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0
o. 0 o.O o.o
I
I
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30 3/ 1./, 1t,.'f 7!.S
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0
0
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()
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2
0
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2
()
0 q /1.J
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I
()
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0
()
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h' l{J.f) 5'6,2 II~.
7
0
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?
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0
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I
()
I
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'I
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n.
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5./
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Total
n.
Evaluation
MI/T.,,M 17 J":-O,,
/7-c.e-HffE""R
l"./rTP>'E'K
£/'T.•"" #'.*"'
PerCBII
NumbeJ
Pe, Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cm!
Nulltler
Certain Ooobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Ce<lain Oooblful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Douutfu Total Certain Doubtful Total
(/
() 0 0
0.
I)
{7
0 JJ.J 0
/),0
I
I
0 I 3J.3
0
:
3 :z 3 '1 17-1 /12./ /QO.
5'
~Balloon
o.
u.o o.,
0.0 o., 0/J
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I
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I
0
0
0
0
2-Aucraft
0
0
(l
()
3-Li,t,I Phenom.
0
0
/)
4-Birds
/l
()
0 0-P
1-Astrooomical
0
2
'f-
f
7 II 'lt-i 'lt-7 7J.~
I I fJ.O t-7 t.7
,y_
(}
0
(J
f).0
D
()
0
0,0
ao
0
0
S-Clouds, Oust. etc.
()
0
0
0
0
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
2
(/
1
tt.1
/),()
/t7
?
0
7-Psycholoeical
{)
()
()
o.o OJJ
0
(l
~Unknown
0
0
0
Q,0
00
0.0
I
0
l}-{)ther
0
0
0
Total
3
0
3 /C,J.0
o.o
a.,
JJ,3 'l'I.~ t/
II, I 2V. 0
n.o Q.o
M r,.b o.o
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0
o.
0
0
0.0
0
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()
0
0
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0
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()
0
1),0
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s
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119
Q
00
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l n.i o,o 222
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0 0,0 0-0 0.P
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I
I
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:( I//./
3
I
I
I
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Q
0,0 0, 0 M
1-AstlOnoaucal
I
0
{). 0
L/
0
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0-Balloon
I
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o.o
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fJ
o.o
2
0
0
0
0
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0
II
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0
Q
Q,
7
0
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0 Q.Q o.~ 0 0
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0. 0
0
0
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M,1<0CH
8 //. I JJ.' 'f'I., 2.
5 n i s.r, 27.~ (
rO.Balloon
I Evaluation
•ov
Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total J;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Humbel
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total ce,tain Doubtful Total
1
0
"
O.{)
u
I 6-7
C-7
1?.7 'fp.o
1 /J.J 0. 0 !J.3
0 o.o o.o o.o
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0 o.D o. ~ /J.0
t,
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0.0
6
0-0
0
0
0
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n tJ
o.b Q./J
0.0
I
11
I
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Q.0
0./J
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/}
2 /J3 o.o /3.3
0
3
0
{)
0
0.0 /J,0 0-0
?
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II
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3 io.o 0 O 2Q.P
:t /J. 3 o.o JU
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0
0
0.Q
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II
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0
3
13.9 69.B
2
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,.,,
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I
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~
111-a.11000
<·
1-AstlOIIOllical
(j
f
12-A,rcraft
2.
3-Littit Ptlslom.
_
4-Biflls
Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
J.(}
,4,.R/L
r£DPtJ"" v
Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Nuertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubl!UI Total Certain DoublfuI Total Certain Doublful Tot~
0
ll
0
/} p
ll.O
O0
Q
"
0
0
,)
Q
(J
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0.0
00
0
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0
n
00
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0.0 ,.;i
I
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a
ll
0
6-lnsuffic. klfo.
I
0
fl
I
0
..
M,ocu-
Percent
,. 2
0.0
o.o 0. {)
:, 1n P.P 1'-7
11. I n.1. 33.3
o. 0 )2,1
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0 Q. 0 (J.0 0-.0
0 o.o o.o 0.0
•
0
I
0
I
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I
()
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2
0
Total
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3·
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I 'I
If Ii
··-
r
i
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I
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,)
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j
0
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r;
(;
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C
0
~
II
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o'
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:{ Ji.I,
0
0
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,)
I
I
~'
I
s
Total
I
I
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o.o
0 ~.o o.o 0-0
0 o.o /l.D i,,Jl
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'f II
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0
0
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0
0
0
s: 3
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0
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0
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ll
0
0.0 ().0
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()
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0
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Q
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if I O.'e Q.0 fp,g C.
II 0.0 10,B ,o.u ()
n.a 222 /Od. u
9
37 15,
2 I/./
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0.0
0
.Tu
'I ct?i o. 0 t{,.?
0 o.o O.d 0. I
()
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f)
0
0
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0.0
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0
f
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0 n,o
0
0
J
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I
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0-d
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0
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1
0
0,0 /f,'2, /1/J
0
0
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0 O.ll ·o.o 0. ~
7 11.~ 'J8 /,1 Iv'~.
C
0
(,
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SrPrffMtf'FR
o.p o.o
li.n n,P
0 0, 0
o.o 'JU
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0
0 8
R 0
()
o.~ o.o
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n
0
0
If
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0.0 '}</.t
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I
~
()
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o. 0 /'13
I /II·
J ,',. ~ l'f. 3 n.,
0 o. 0 u.O 0 0
'), 7 //,.'
' /3.5
# /P.9 0.0 /0.:
0
Per Cent
Number
PerCmt
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu I Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doublful Total
Evaluahon
()
o. 0
11.0
Number
ID-Balloon
I
0
-;it-:;,--.::-
..
~---
0
I
'I
o.o .S.r,
0.0
I SI,
0 0.0
0
7-Psydlolo~<II
5
0. Q
a o.o 0 .d o.o
0.0 /00,
u.,
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-~
!'I
p
0.0
n·
j
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0
I
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D
0
I
0
I
4:B
(l
7
"0
JJ.J Q .0 I.H.J
lf,0 4.8 117, 8
0
n
()
0
(J
0.0
Lf,8
I
4
o.o o.o 0.0
f)
0
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0
0
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I,
(l
0
J
t.,
0
n
()
0
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n
n 0. 0 o.o o.O
lf,t
1-1 /'7.0 0
0 o.o 0.0 o. 0
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20
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2/. I
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0 p .1/ ,I
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0 If 1100.0 q,O I (JQ.
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0
'
I
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Perc.nt
Total Certain Doubl!UI Total
'.I #. 7 o. C ?.7
1 4. 3 7,(./ <0.4
5 IJ.~ f.3 '.ll.7
0
o.o o.o 0.0
0
0
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0
p,q
d}
0 0
o.o o.o o.o
2.
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~
9.7
0.(/
9.7
0
p
()
0. d
0
Q.Q
I,
n
I
0
'I
l.6, / 0.0 U.I
rn '-1.9 m. 16
-
5. 3
Av,:;vsr
v
7
s
' 3/. t
0
Q.P
0.()
o. Q o.o
o. 0 0.0
D
Nuni>er
Per Cent
Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain DoubtfuI Total certain Doubtfu
I
I
'f.3
O.fl /.f.3
7 2:; ~t.6 JP. 'f 100,
D--,- ~=,;-R
•o
PerCmt
PerCenl
NuntJer
Number
Number
Per Cent
Per Cent
Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain l)o,mtfu I Total Certain Doobtlul Total Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu Total Certain Doubl!UI Total
I
()
'1
'I
()
I /Q. 0 0.0 10.0
{J
0
!)
00 0.0 /J.O
7
~3 It. 1,.,
/3.3
~ /J,J
Number
Evaluabon
o.o
II-Balloon
1l-Astronom1cal
('
r.
~~~aft
0
C
0
0
,3-Liglll Phenom.
(;
4-Bnds
C
r,
!)
6-lnsuff,c. ~to.
3
0
1-Psycholo&ical
Q
8-Unknowr1
:,
,-,-Other
(j
0
0
0
S-Clouds. Dust, etc.
Total
I
;3
5 3P5 o.~ n.,
'2 15'.'t ().O /.',.'I
0
0-0
O·d
0.0
I
I
":I
()
I
/l.1'
fi
Ci
I
0
0,0
/J.b
n
I\
o.o
r,,~
0
0
o.o
I h.n 'Jo.o
0
0
0
o.o
I 0.0
,n.o
2.
if
C /3,3
n.o
n.o
n.~
Q
(/
o.o n,0 Oo
o.,
11
Q
Q
0
()
0,(/
0
/JI)
n,O
Ii
0
a.o
o.o
o.o
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I t.?
0 ,//
60.0
0 Q0
0
0
3
n, o.o 11.J .,
0
0
/)
0
0-~
f1
0
0
'
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3 n1
a,o IJ.1./
,,
ti
0
o.o
0
0
g
2,
Q.Q
0 13 too.o
0-b
o.o ')/J.
o.o
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Q.o
J
0
ll()
IJ.(1
0
Q.O
60.0
s
0
0
I
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o. 0
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0
o.o
o.o
o.o
o.o
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II.fl
0
1'- 37.5
I 47.
D 0 0.0
D 0 0-0
II.~
()
11
0 a. o
I
II
I
I
II
I
2
(J
t).n
26;/ : JI/J,/,
0.0 ,1-n
1,,7
o.o o.o ().0
1
I
()
'.3
0
n, ,o.o
o.o t.~
o.o o. 0
o.o 0. 0
0,0
0.0
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'f. '),_
n.o lf.1
oo f. 3
n.a 't. 1..
D.0 1./-,1,
(l
5 J?.., o.o 3.3.3
I (,,7 o-0 M
I
-/2
1-. 3,3
0 If. 2
'I
/S [7J.J U.i /00.
17
7
:Ut 70.2 ;i..f. ~ I 00.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
120
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
JAMU
!
Evaluahon
,,,:_-r-, ,,,,,,,,,, y
RY
Per Cent
lmmbel
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
!}Balloon
.!.
I
'1·ASIIOnomical
I
!2•A1mlft
I
'2
-:, /0. 5 S.J !H
'J .s.J /v._r:; Jf.8
il
1.
1
3-Lighl Phenom.
(';
C
()
O.v
C
()
/'l
o.o
5-Clouds, Oust. etc.
('
6-lnsuffic.lnfa.
5
n
s
6.0
Jt.J
4•8Hds
o.o
/C-j',4pc,;,t
Percent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Number
I If. I
0 0 //,/
I
0
0
z Q, u 1.?.2 n2
10.5 /0 S
2
11
j
o.o o. Q
o. 0 o. 0
o.o o. 0
3
Q
0
0
()
0
0
(l
0
0
0
0
0
I
'2
0
0
0
0
5
JJ.J 3J. 3
/} 0 (/,0 I). 0
Qg
b.D o. 0
0.0 o.o 0,/1
0,0 Q,0
o.O
7-Psyd'lllo~c:al
0
0
0
C
I-Unknown
5
(I
0
5
,n 1),0 U.J
9,Qtt,e,
I
0
I
5;3
Total
/'f
5
,r 73. 7 ;,.3 !/JO· 'I
Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cet1t
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain DIMlbtflll Total
i
I
o.o ~t..3
0 C ().0 0. 0
(J. 0
5. .1
2
0
<'10.11
l•Astronom1cal
i)
c'
0
c.c o.o o.o
0
2-Aircraft
I
0
0
I
70.0
0 0 20.0
0
,)
o.o 0 0
I
3-Li&ht Pllenom.
0
C-.Birds
0
I
c.r, 70.J .~J. C
0
S-Clouds., Oust, etc.
C
r;
I
C
(}
:,'.)
,··.:', J. ~
0
O.J o.v
ti.O I
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0,/'
11
I
0
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9-Qtt,e,
I
0
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fl
I
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u
u
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~o.o
o.o o.o
I ![ to.0 20.0 /(/{).
0
0
0
0
I
0
0
I
0
I)
0
0
0
D
0
0
J
0
m if
0.0
()
(/
0
0
0. ii
0
o. 0 '1
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0
0
1
1,t. 7
00
0
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0
0
0
0
s £'0. 0
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()
0
Q,O
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0, 0
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Q.0
0
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0
0
1 ()
0
0
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0
0
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u
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Total Certain Dwbtlul Total
/8
7
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Pre,,_ .<J = ~ H
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t: /'7
b
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1/(l
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-
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PerCmt
Total Certain Dwblful Total
u
Evaluahon
5EPT~ ~
fl'I.J IP.1 /II.
JU {,.ff lf.O 39 39 73 '!.t 9t JU
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IS./ 113 1,s !"i /0.(, II ,J 2J.'J
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7,2. /66 /'f.7 /I 3 '2t. t
41 J.; ~1 //.5
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Total
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Per Cent
Number
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Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Gertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
0-Balloon
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Number
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Percent
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/fl,
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Per Cent
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Number
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Number
Number
certain
Doubtful
Certain
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Total
Certain
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Total
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Number
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1
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17.
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Number
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0
I
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13.3 .33.J
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I
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en 33.3 No.
7
5'
Evah,ation
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Percent
Number
Per Coil
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubllll Total Certain Doubtlul Total Certain Doubtful Total
I
0
I
0
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0
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0
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Number
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0
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0
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Per Cent
Number
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Number
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tJ
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Per Cent
Number
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Number
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Number
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Per Cent
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()
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~=
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0
0
0
0.0
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Per Cent
Number
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()
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5
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Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCe,t
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PerCmt
Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooublful Total Certain lloublhl Tola\ ~ertain Doubtfu I Tola\ Certain Doubtful Tola\ Certin Doubtfu Tola! Certain Doubtful Total
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l•Asbononncal
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0-Balloon
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Total
Evaluabon
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1-Aslrol'IOllical
2-Ancr,H
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7-Psydl>lo&ical
11-Unlolo•
Total
134
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Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astmnomic:al
2-Aircrlft
l-L1p1 Ptlenom.
PerCmt
Total Certain Doubtful Total
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I
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6-lnsuff1c. Mit.
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8-l)!known
"°"'"
Total
1,
138
I
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Evaluahon
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Total
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·0-ea11oon
I
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139
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Total
Evaluation
~Balloon
I-Astronomical
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9-0tne,
Total
!
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),'£-.,.,w M t:uw1Nr; y..,-,.,.,w
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< fl. 1,t, 'f.2 I
I
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7'6'/V
Number
Pereeot
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/9S/
0
0
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Per Ceo!
Numbef
Number
~Balloon
6'y
9'.Et9RS
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Per Cent
Number
lllmbef
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s tG ¢' r(A(6 s
P=,e
S"/611/T/Au:::
/9<,C.7
ALL
YE,1,e.5
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tolal
/Jd/c~rs
(17,C
A///M,-,e,,,
2
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!,.2,
155
~t. /2.C.
tJ.P 5.1,
tu' 41? f.-"
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5'.2
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0 t.?.t? t1.t? 62tJ
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Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total t:e,tain Doubtful
Number
Evaluation
7, '?
I
0
I
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I
0
I
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
1,6
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/~
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0
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0
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0
0
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I
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z
0
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0,0
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0.0
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0
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0.0
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0
0
0
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0
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2-Aircraft
fl
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3
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0
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f
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7-Psydlolo~cal
I
0
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Total
Sr
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Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain DOllbtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Dooblful Tot~ r.;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooul.ltfu
6
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12 /8,7
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0
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0
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z
0.0
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0
0
0
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0
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0
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z
0
0
0
0
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0
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/'1.S/
0
0
0
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0
I-Astronomical
z
0
0
0
0
0
0
2~Aircraft
0
0
.2 M,.7 ao 61:,.1
o.c 0.0 o.o
0
0
/
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3-Light Phenom.
0
0
4--Birds
0
0
0
0
0
0
5-Clouds.Dust,etc.
0
0
a
o.o
0.0 so.o
2
0
0
0-Balloon
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0
0
0.0
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0
0
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0
0
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(!).0
0
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0
0
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0
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40
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0
0
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o.o o.o
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0,0
0.0
0
0
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0
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0,0
0.0
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3
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7.0
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o.o ,6.1
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I
0
ao o.o t),0
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0
t),0
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0
7-Psycoolo~cal
0
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0
0
0
o.o
(!),0
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0
0
9-0ther
/
0
/
33.3
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t)
0
Total
3
0
3
lt)().0
0.0 J,:)O,
z
I
3
66.7 3.3.3 /00. 3'1
2._ ~.7
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0.0
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0.0 0.0
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0, 0
:zs.c 25',0
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Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Total Certain Doubtful Total r;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
zs.o o.o 25.CJ
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t?,C
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ao ti.o
9
I
7.0
2.3 'f.3
0.0 2'1,'f
7.0 1,.3
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7.0
20.'f
C'.O u,,'f
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Total
Certain Doublful Total
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
146
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
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I
I
I
I
I
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Per Cent
PerC111l
Number
Percent
Number
PerCIIII
N"'ber
Ceruin Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Domtful Tollll Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total """'in DoulJlful Toi~
fl /t...?
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2.
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29
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Number
PerC111l
Number
PerCenl
Certain Doubtful Tol31 Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tblal
1
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1/&.6" 5:t. 15.1 /!,
tJ ///J 0.0 /J.t} ~
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0
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131.
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;J,/J
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tJ
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Number
Number
Per Cent
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Nunt.ier
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Certain Oowtful Tol31 Certain Domtful Total Certain Domllul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
PerCfnt
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11-BIIIOCNI
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0
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0
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0
~
0
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0
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0
tl.O
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6-tnsuff1c.-.111.
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I
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Total
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0
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Nlllllbel
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tJO tl.O
tJ ,1tJ IJ. r; /J.O
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Per Cent
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7-Psydlo~~c:al
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33.3
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1=.o
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2, I/alt 17.0
147
,=
t}.tJ
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t?.tJ tl. t:l t?.a
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Percent
Number
Number
Percent
ertain Domtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
t) /J,11 t1.0 /J.o
tJ.o /J.t) /J.O
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/J 17.0 tJ.O /J.O
{/ /J.O /J.O l]./J
tJ 00 t20 0,/J
t? 00 0.0 ao
/J /JC} /JO o.o
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t?
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2.1
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blluahoa
0-Bllloon
3-Lipt Ptlenom.
4-Birds
5-Cloucts. Dust. etc.
6-lnsuffit. klll,.
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Total
19~/
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I
Evaluation
0-Balloon
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t}
2
9./
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i
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tJ
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1
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Per Cent
Number
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certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
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Number
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Number
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0
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Evaluation
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Number
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Per Celli
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f
3 77
I
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J.i 3.8
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73
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I
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0
0
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tJ.o /J,{J
0.0 12.S
155
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Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
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(?
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3 175
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0
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40
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Number
8.3 o. q
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0.0
0.0
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0
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I
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I '-/./
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0.1
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o.o 0.0 Q.g
17 i8.~
n.o
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'3 27. 3
n
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Per Cent
Number
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S'f.8 j/_g 70.,
3-Li&hll'h""".
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//.-3t:J
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I
"
o.o /. t
0.0
0.0
0.0
1/J It.If
I
'22
7.7
3
0
r
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1.1 J. l (,,(,
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I
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I
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J 0 'r
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6-lnsuftit. Mio.
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0. 0 i lj.t;
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I
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I
...,
J
.
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h
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I
I .1
1-6
0
t>
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Total
170
7 'S 1J.IK Cf.if 30t JtJO.
7'!
1-l'sydlolopc:al
1-Unlulo•
i
I
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I
I
~
Evaluahon
!o.e.i1oon
Jt-Astronom,eal
12-Aircrah
//?,
3,:
l/
'i'
51
r:
:4-Buds
I
I
I.I
t;h //3
'f
3
17
r
0-3
:,
/ fj
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,O.Balloon
'l-Astranomical
I
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3-LiPI PhfflOm.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dust, etc.
;- ,f ;J.S ~3 2.'i 3
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1'1 2/ /# V
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5-Clouds. Oust. etc.
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
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Total
>3
3'7 ?o lt.i
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Ill 3.£
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7
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7 /~ /,tJ ;2, 5 1-'l
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Number
Evaluation
?, 7
Per Cent
Number
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Number
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Number
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20 ~/ f,t) S';'/ 11/.'1
/3 59 IJ,/J. 3,'i? I l,.2.
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160
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Evaluation
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I-Astronomical
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6-tMUffi~ ~fa.
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J/-10
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S- S~uJNPS
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I
I
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0-Balloon
I
l•Astronomical
2-Aimaft
3-Lightf'tlenom.
4-Birds
I
I
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1
Total
£ VAL//"1r//:JIII
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Evaluation
0-Balloon
6-/(?
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5£CC-hVL?.5
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Number
Percent
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Evaluation
7
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Number
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7,7 Zl
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Number
Evaluation
2-Aimatt
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f>lnsuffic.lnfo.
11-Unkno..
9-0llltr
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical
3-Liat,tl'h......
4-Birds
6-lnsuffic.lnfa.
7-PsydlDlogical
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9-0ther
Total
Evaluation
0-Balioon
1-Asbonolllical
I
I
I
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2-Aircraft
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180
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E..Ullion
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4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
6-lnsuffl~ lnfD.
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Mlllllf
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Evaluation
0-Bllloon
l•Aslnlnomical
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Higl11Ph"10ffl.
4-Birds
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
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8-Unkno•
Millier
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
l·Astronomical
2-Aircraft
Higl11Pl1aloll.
4-Birds
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Total
181
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EvALuAOL2AI
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Number
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II-Balloon
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6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
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8-Unkno""
9-0ther
Total
I
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I
I
182
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0.11111111111
1-Asllooolllical
2-Aircrlft
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Total
Jv,
Evaluation
0-Balloon
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Number
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Per Cail
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0-Balloon
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Total
Evalualioo
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185
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fwmber
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vi st
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Number
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Per Cent
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0-Balloon
3-Liat,tPh010m.
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5
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t?
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0
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22, [ft? 215 la7.
Evaluation
tl
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t? /J./,J
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5 1/.I 11. x' /.J. 9
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Evaluation
,SpAA#
Per Cent
Number
PerCa,t
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Per Cent
Nuober
PerC01t
Certain Doubtful Tot.al Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtlul Total pertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu Total Cer1ain Doubtlul Total
(
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f1
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200
I
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I
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I
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tli&'.LE
ALL fEA/i"S
Evaluation
I
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l},(J
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0.0
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0
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Total
.296 /.2-t) 411,, 1'7/.2 ~fl /PP,
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Number
Percent
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i
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0
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2·Aircraft
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9/
Evaluation
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4-Birds
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0
0
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Percent
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19 d7
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Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
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Per Cent
Number
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Percent
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7-Psycoolo&ical
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0
0
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18
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Evaluatioo
Percent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Percent
Number
PerC"11
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total i:;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total r.;ertain Ootmtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobllul Total Certain Doubtful Total
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14 .f'1.J 4tJI IM>. /~9
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r
0
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qq
3.4
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Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCmt
ertain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
/;I.,-
i i 1¢ 21
I (1.0 14 14
~
/),t,
[4 12.,
;
(, ,/
97 12 I
.2'i /tD
IJ
9 -14- 2 tJ /.2
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29 /:l.1 "· (I l..l./
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4.1
Fl
d,.,
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~"
Total
/,2...., 2# 141 1.H it.I /0().
.!'1 17 7~ 171.0 23.0 /Oil. ~fl l..1'06 1.J~ 71.f :zi.l (/){),
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0.0
u, O.tl
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0 l..23 CJ,:j /JO
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14 It Ju.I /,1/i /j(J 4 [ 1(.4 /t,;J.
29 J..l.l '1.4 1111..r
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0
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0
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ti-./ 9 J- I.U
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Total Certain Doobtful Total
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~
PerCmt
Total Certain Doobtful Total
3
II
J.f
0-Balloon
0
11,0.
S'/6,6(Tf///G5
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCmt
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Tolal Certain Doobtfu I Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Douhtfu
S;i .r.r /.~7 {.:; 4.2 /,14
.2
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2-Aircratt
/~;z //J- .2.31 9..3 3 . ., 11,, I
3-Lithl Phenom.
11 /:I, ,2 9 1,3 tP.9 ,<.;J I
4-Birds
$
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S-Clouds, Oust, etc.
¢ O.I tl.~ If)., p
I
3
6-lnsutfic.lnfo.
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7-Psycholoaical
/J' tl.9 o.~ I.I ;)
3
1-'
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1t;o ~-" /110. f,:; It 9J' 11/1, /JI) 11,0.
14,1?
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0
0
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0
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p
Number
Per Cent
Number
ertain Doubtful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Douhtfu
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0.0
5-Clouds, Dus~ et~
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0
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p
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o.o
Number
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?
0
t,(<v9,eS
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3
3-Lilht Phenom.
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Number
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.r'J _/4 9/ I.U.J ».8 I~//
9-Dtt,e,
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I
/7,I<'"
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203
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I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Li&hl Phenom.
Pe,Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certaia Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubttal Total [.;ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
11 Ar /IL ,,tp,/, /J./ ,,_., :,
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I
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0
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0
0
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s
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t.£_·~
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7'"#~"
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Total Certain Ooobtful Total
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47 .27
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II
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0
I fo.o
0.0 J'fJ.o
0
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-
PerCenl
Number
Per Cenl
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PerCent
NuCawn Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Geftain Doubtful Total Certain Ooomttal Total ~rtain Ooomtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooobllul Total Ce,tail Ooubtlal Tolal
<I
I
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()
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0
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0
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$
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0
0
I)
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0
0
ff.,j
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p
0
0
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0
0
II
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p
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0
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0
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0
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141.7 r.3
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I
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'
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I
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Im
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LJ.t)
4
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4.o 1~5'.o ,2~
J/J. () 0.0
204
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
19,1..a
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerC01I
Per Cent
Number
NulU>er
Certain DOlrbtful Total Certain Ooomtlul Total Certain Ooomtful Total Cawn Doobtful Total Ceftain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu Total Certain Ooobtlul Total
0-Balloon
8--
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Pe,Cmt
Number
I
,.,3
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/! '.r ;l
Nunter
0
I:, 9.~
I
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~
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0
Evaluation
1,/J
1).1
0
IJ.O
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1/l /J,/J ti. '1
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0.0 l:!S" 3
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0
0/l 0
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0
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0 t) 0 tJ. 0 "·"
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r ..r 0 rf Jtl4 1),0 /f/.9
q 4 / j J.2 Jd v.C
0 t:J.o (), (I 0.0
? ,·,1
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Total
0
0
~-.c.
tl./J
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3-Lieht Phnm.
Evaluation
I
p
111,0 O.D
On
Po
0
s
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Evaluation
S'
I
/J,I
n
0
0
I
s
0
Number
Number
Per Cent
PerC01I
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total
1-Astionomieal
,u
/J
I .f. /. dU) .{:t.
lo 279. 11f
;;, [Go I.(' JI·"'
0 t!?.O O./'J '-1>
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t!?.P tJ.o t)JJ
1/J.6
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n
2.111 1100 J4.f 170'1 .:19./ l/dd.
0-Balloon
.~ 1Jl 7 f 1 ~,,b
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0
0
0
Total
/&;'[L?
I
/9A.Q
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I~ 47
Per Cent
Number
0-Balloon
r-..,-.o-r/t:)_A ·AA <,/
/Jl.?Jt.11!1-..-
✓_,Alf'S
ALL
I
I
I
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I
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I
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I
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till/LI[
ALIEvaluation
EvAL (h97?0/I/
ac
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Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtfl.11 Total Certain Doubtful Total
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/6
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1,4
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Total
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Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
:I,, I
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93,8 L..1
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6
0
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0
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5
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Number
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Number
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Number
Percent
Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
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17.30 .Jit'J 1/t:>/" 1-l.3 ;l 1.1 JM ldo
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Number
PerCml
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Number
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0
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t
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Total Certain Doubtful Total
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206
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Total Certain Doubtful Total
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Number
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Number
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0
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Evaluation
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,,,., .J CJ ~-tl
I
✓ ,/. I
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I I 2.!.9
I
4
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain Doubtfu I Total Certain Doubtlul Total Certain Dwblful Total
2-Aircraft
7-Psydlololical
,.2.
9.3 1/.L l2t19 II
J?.a /}/J :t-.1 ,:1
,,, " 17 tJ.tl
p
/J./, /J.i? .O.C,
0"
,S,;,-.,.;-_ ,< - .S..,,,..,. rlFS
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6-lnsuffic. Info.
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Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCeat
ertain Doubtful To1'I Certain Doubtful To1'I certain Ooolrtful To1'I Certain Doubtful Tot~
tl
,2,
OA./FAr<:
wr11r£
J 1- ho .SC.Co'(' ..... -
/111
11.7.t)
f
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IU
Number
0-Balloon
t?,e
:JQl 1;l.~ '-'I g
63 Lo 123 lrl.1 41.K /,?tl.
it I
,.,un-t;
,,
11-.10 ${'c_l),v?)<.
ertain Ooubtfut Tolal Certain Doubtful Tolal
.(.7 S.4 i1d~
£ 4tl /(,, /.I.
2, ,? 11 /J {l
/./,
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6-/0 SE~l),.,7'_<
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PerC01t
1'1mber
Certain Doubtful To1'I Certain Doubtful Total
l•AstlanDltical
IHl11I011
A~
,:;,,:.-
'1nA 4 r/_f?JI/
CA~,
s
1
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llt." tJ. :z 21(.?.
7.4 3. 7 If.I
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I
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L. 7 cJ.i? ,t.. 7
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.eeeo,e r.eo
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Evaluation
~E<o-¥-
,.,. L~~ ...
0,,:
6·/0
S//'=-, "'6
SIF<o,,O>s
o,tfJ§ers
ME-rAt.L/t!
I
.31- 60 ~(:~o..r?>c
11-3~ Seu,h'.z,~
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCmt
Number
Per Cent
Numter
Certain ODllbHul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doomllul Tolal Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
0-Balloon
.t
I
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1-Asbonomical
I
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2
2-Aircraft
;;l.
,3-LiaJ,t Ph!IIOIII.
I
n
I
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(7
I
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/J.tJ .?.S
[s-c1oud~ llvs1,et~
I
p
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fl
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7. 7 ;u.1 jOf
0
p
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0
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7'7
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()
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Total
I?
9 :Z6 l.:':d JU /t?t7.
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6 /fl 11.n J/./.. /,?,:?. 34 ,,l.2 .s-/4 bP. 1 39.3 /tJtJ. 33
Evaluation
I,/ .$,F<owD~ - .!:° /4,,vo7"~<
1'1mber
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tolal
I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
.21
/0
I
0
,:/()
/[
,r. -3t7 M/Nv7"<'..t:
Orts,e .Jb NI.. , ..-•
1.4 1.t£. ,.,]( /2
/ 41.i tJ.tJ t1 I & I
l,'/.t >?9U
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ll
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I
0
I
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()
27 147.4 a& (/)(I"( :l.'1
0
2.f
0
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1.S" 7.S
9
0
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9 !,"7 ,M.:i /.f.i /a:!
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t?
q
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l/5' 11,1.9 ,!J.,:J /<(?
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Total
917 .29 JJtl l7J.I. J.d.tf. /Pt:J.
4-
I
0
,?.t) tJ.O
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ti
dtJ
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14.3 O.tl ,1t/.1
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1- ?./J
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4-.r 1,1_~ :2,.1 l1,1tJ.
3
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Q .:?.5" J.j' -?,tl ,(3
0 t).(7 ,? I'.) (J. 0
I
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/9.I '29.1
i
17
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2
ti
I 11.16'
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4--Birds
6-lnsuffic. a1o.
I .2
I
I
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0
tJ.tJ ,1/J
0
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0
f
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0
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tf ,JI, /tJI 1/.4.~ 3J:t. ltl/J. IJi
220
I
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CJ.CJ
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I
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t?.,::J
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1.1
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3-LiaJ,t Phenom.
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
t?.tJ It.I
40 t?.Cl ao
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Per Cent
Number
Number
' Percent
Number
Per Cent
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.71 /"1./.,
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✓ LJ/.1 tl.tJ 21. t
t? tJ.O CJ.I? /JO
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I
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Total Certain Dwblful Total
p
J./. CJ.t? f.t
It _'15" 35.9 ,in,, tRs l'1
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9 J/).1
3 lu,:~
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0
I
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0
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PerCmt
Tolal certain Dwblful Total
I
I
I
I
I
I
t:7. t7
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16 /,27 1%1.¢ h.L /tJI?.
I
I
I
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sEvaluation
t:?
I
l•Astiunomical
l.r
4
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I
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ll.at1
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t?.t:J 12.,,
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I
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
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0
0
0
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I
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Total
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Evaluation
I
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a
2-Aircratt
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3-Li&htPh.-.m.
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I
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6-lnsuffic.lnfo.'
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Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
0.Balloon
~
J-
I-Astronomical
/I
,I
9 7.o
// /JI')
2-Aircraft
7
.2
I'
0
u 15.1
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I
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Number
PerCenl
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
;J.
0
d
ti i.1
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S 1,.1 f.4 21.t
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3
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t lt.2. ·at1 /t,.2,
n
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2,
II
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I
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()
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t).tJ
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n
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t1 aCJ 17,0 tJ. ti
12, s:i.4 /),? u_,-,
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0
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8
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7-Psydlolo&ieal
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11-Unkno•
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Total
.18
If
/' 7 ILL., 13.3 10a .1,,
c
,;t
LJ.I?
s-:u ,;Q'
221
I G'..1'
I ,:;-_.1
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11{ /
/J.tl :?/ I
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Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
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'1;17
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Per Cent
Total Certain Doubtful Total.
I
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1.R
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l/1.l /It gf-,1,
/lcl
2.0 ,1/1
t1 17,/J 17./J 17.tJ
.,,,,A
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4,Q I. G'
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t?.tl f(6
tJ /J,/J tJ.t:J /J_/)
t1 LJ.P t?.O t'J.O
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t?.c? ll.0
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1.9
I
t'J IJ.t:J
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I
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P.1
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5
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Per Call
Total Certain Doubtful Total
I
~
.~4 l'1 ..rl U.7 33.3 lltJ(J.
f,,J. 1'14- I/~
?
ll
< '1.i atl a
5.Z
4
/J.tJ ,?,17
tJ.r.
f.:Z.
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t1 t).tl J'l.tl O.t?
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ao
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ff 6' 3.J' 11.P /J
/0 :is 4.9 1.i i.1
I It? 11.0 I. 2 12.2 ,14 I [ !it/ IL.r S:f.. VI
✓I /.2., 1'1 ¢9 .2 :J ..ZJ ¢,:. JU, J.t,, d t
3
9
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerCmt
Nundler
Percent
Number
Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Totm Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
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~..,-,,,.,. ,v.r S:-rArF 1>
;;/ 11./ t'J.CJ /7. I
3 1.';1 /J.tl .J'.7
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t'J.t:? 4tJ
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3-Li&h1Pht110m.
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3
Evaluatioa
0
I
1117
0
2-Aireraft
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Cl
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fd.4 (1.,2 1/¢.'4' /t)
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t j:'J II.I /~7
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p
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1:Z. 115.() ,at) g,()
2,. .t.5 17.() 2.!:
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17
9-0ther
(/.1, 155
//.I R.4 ~(I.I!)
t'J tUl dtl I.a,::,
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2
2- tJ.tJ 2.Z 2.t
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7 7. Ji O.tl 7.! /2
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I-Astronomical
4-Birds
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Number
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2-Aircnfl
4-Birds
S-Cloud~ Dus~ el~
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Percent
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Evaluation
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4-Birds
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0-BallOOII
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Evaluation
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t?
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tl~ S'AP
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Per Cent
Number
Number
Per Cent
Cerlain Doubtful Total Certain DoubllJI Total tertain Doomlful Total Certain Doubllul Total Certain Doubllul Total Certain Oowlful Toi~
/JrJ
2-Airaall
8-!l-0111..
-
,,.,,,,.
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IJ,l
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I
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240
I
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I
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I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
E'11111tion
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical
2-Aircrlft
3-LithlPhenom.
4-Birds
7-Psydloloaical
&-Unluro•
Total
//o
LJc,, "A
~1/5-? "AL ,A
Pe, Cent
Per Cent
Number
Certain DOlrbtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Drxrbtful Total
Number
Evaluation
/5 /, I 1.(} /.J'./
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I
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IJ, tJ
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d
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I-Astronomical
2•Aircraft
If
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3-Liat,t Pllenom.
/
4-Birds
5-Cloud~ Dus~ et~
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g
f
116,?
6-lnsuHic.lnlo.
,t/
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7-Psychological
0
tl
&-Unknown
9,1
9--0ther
/?.
Total
1;,
IUJ ~/J ✓-~
I
~
0-Batloon
1.,/
1¢
Pe, Cent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain lloubtfu Total Certain Omblful Total
Nuntier
I
v,
V
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I\
,, de! IJ.tJ J'.5tJ
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Cl
5 ,,,,, ,,;
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t),/,
tl
J'2,
2'1~ CtJ 2:n
.I£
/J
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.12;;, /20
,7,/4 1£,C,
(/
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117.4 J',< /?~
/J
tl
tJ
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1?./J
2'f 115' 'flt 25'.1- la?.
//,,
tj
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a_,,
1!5 £{, ?£ tJ It)(),
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Liat,tf'lln,ar,
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psychoto1ical
8-UnknoMI
9-0ther
Total
Ac4,
11<1 IP
Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
C.rtlin Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
u §.I. If.~
,f
5
;£,
1-Astronomical
/2,
5
2-Aircraft
.I
;7 1.1.~ ;; I. 19,;
I/,:; II 1. l!i".?
,,, ,~
3-Lii)ll Ph.,,m.
I
0
0-Balloon
I 1./
,1 JJ
II
?.t
&-Unkno•
2,/4
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t. I JJtJ II
4,; /)/] .I/,;
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,,7
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Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
I,?
I
/,.
I
JJ
d
I /J,, //,f ¢.1
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d tJ.t? !?ti !?. tl
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5-Clouds, Oust. etc.
I
CJ
I
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tJ
6-tnsuffi~ Info.
d
✓,,
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5
7-PsydlolopCII
,?
4-Birds
Total
~
t?
CJ
l.f.U
,7
,?
I, 1 U, i'Y ,f.t:_, 2</1 IM
I~
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~-1
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Number
.,
0.tJ ,w
5" 1.1.J at1 :Ztf
tJ ao l).t) 120
,/ ;?.t:, r? /) 1?,?
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$/
/)/'.
/),,
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'77.4 I.ft' t, 111,1?,
241
~At:_1"1
Per Cent
Number
NuPer Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Drxrblful Total coin Doubtful Total
I
'{/
\
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t'\
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"'
Evaluation
0-Balloon
l•Aslltln:imical
2-Aircraft
4-Birds
6-lnsuffic. ~fo.
7-Psydlolo&ical
9,Qtt,e,
Tobi
4Evaluation
1-Astrvnomical
1
·9
2-Aircraft
'd
'7
3-Li&hll'benoer.
I
/J
0-Balloon
/?,.,._,,,,, _,,
/J-"1",a
Per Cent
PerCffll
Number
Number
Certain Ooobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
.i'
1/J
j
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II
I
4. .$ 4.tJ !11..1
/)
.H,, IL.tl
§"
I
I
SI
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4-Birds
'7
S-Clouds, Dus~ et~
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6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
,I
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'7."f
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9-0ther
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Total
L.{J
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6
'7t) 1.-,,, ✓,
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1',?.1' ~tJ. /,
242
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s ,,,,,./, tJ./J .?5.o
&-Unknown
7-Psycholo1ical
Number
PerC8lt
NWliler
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtlul Total Ce,tin Doubtfu Total Certain Doubtful Total
,_
(J
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V
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
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I
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I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Evalution
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical
3-Liat,IPhSIOffl,
6-lnsuffic.tnfo.
7-Psycllolo~cal
8-Unlulo.,
Total
Men
Evaluation
J./A
A
Number
Per Cent
Number
Pe< COIi
Nuntier
Per Cent
Number
Certain Dobbtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total ~•rtain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
0-Batlooo.
~
tJ
1- IU
tJ/J lf..J
?
I
I/ N
f.1 It,~
I-Astronomical
/
2-
4
~
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21. tJ <fl.9
2 Aircratt
,?
I
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,t.?
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/
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0
tJ
£)
tJ.tl
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4
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CJ
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/J(J
/J(J
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//
0
f?JJ
/) tJ /! ,1 /) /J
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l?/J
/7,/J a o
?. ? .?. 2.
/_rl
4-Birds
0
5-Clouds. Dus~ etc.
tJ
6-lnsutfic.lnfo.
2.
If.!
£,
/J
2, It.,,;-
/J,(J l,{5"
,/,J
tJ
CJ
i'J t?
7-Psychological
/J
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u
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L7
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9-0ther
/J
,?
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/1/J
0.0 ao
it_
tJ
'2,
I..,;
'1/l 6,5
Total
IZ
:I IS- Mt,~ l,M.
Ii'
:l l.f.f
PerC01t
Total Certain Dooblful Total
tJ. (J
If ,g; 5"%.! Id!.? '1tJ/J,
Evaluation
0-Batloon
I-Astronomical
3-Liat,t Ph010m.
4--Birds
6-/nsuffic. lnfo.
7-Psychological
8-Unknown
9-0ther
Total
,t.1,,,,,1,,11
M1:r1",.,
PerCmt
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
Number
Evaluation
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
0-Balloon
I
(}
l t f tl.t? f,5
.;,
1-Astronomical
I
,:1,
..!
51.1 /1,,1 15.J;
d
2-AircraH
/J
I
3-Liat,t Ph810m,
/
/,)
I {J.17 ~J f..J
/ 1J 120 f..1
tJ /J/J /J tJ /lt}
/J
4-Birds
tJ
0
5-Clouds, Dust, etc.
tJ
0
6-lnsuHic. lnkl.
,J,
/J
7-PsydlOlorical
0
0
O.o /JO
:Z, 16. 1 /J.O II.. 7
t9 (l. tJ tJ. /J 0 t?
8-Unknown
d
0
d ,ff! .-1.tJ 5'.1..J
t-Othe,
/'}
/,)
Total
f
3
tJ
00
I
ti /t!tJ ?! lf.5
15 l1J.J -rt?l'J lff.1
2,
? I.J /,,, '1 '✓'t"
/,) /)/) /J./J
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L'J
I
9
/J
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I?
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/)
t?/l
j'}/J
I tJ.tJ .?. l
?...!
/'};;
'< /J 1.,7
tJ
/7
tJ
tJ
!f Jt.1
tJ J'J. /') tJ.iJ tJ.tJ
5
,t.,
/,)
?.
;2,, 1t;.tJ 26.{) voo.
11
15 ..10 5'~7 4.J'.3 /(Jt},
/J. t?
.t., "}
t:20 /JO
//., 7
/),?
/..7
/'}_/'}
243
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tot~
EYlluatiao
h\sbanamical
2-Alraaft
3-Li&l>IPhenom.
4-Birds
• l>lnsullic. Info,
7-Psycbological
8-UnknaMI
9--0ther
Total
Evaluation
Certain
0-llllioon
I
l•Astronomical
/
tJ
,?,
.
,,
Mcr;t'tJ
Number
I 11'.'.! /11'7 ff.J
1 5.J /£.1 25."1,
.J
.J'
I
I.I. ,q.,. ,ft 1¢.f
.1'
f
,I ,,,_ 7 ?fl.t ff.J
2-Airaaft
/J
I
I
/I/.
!7 ~
I
~
J
3-Li&l>tf'henom.
/
tJ
I
/.
,?
01/J/J
,? /J
4-Birds
/}
/J
/J
/J
/J
/J
~/)
l'7
6-lnsullic. lnlo.
,t,
tJ
?, I/L 1
0/'J 47
~
c?
I
tJ
7-Psycbological
0
I)
/J
/}/} 11'7,::?
,?
,..,/J
d
,, ,, ~!j'
/J
,:;
§
~ 111.'9 /?.1'7
/J
t?I.
ff~
/J/J
0 I /J /J
I 1'7.0
2, 't I
12 I/J./J
0/J I.,?,,
5-Clouds,Dust,etc.
,,
~1 /J /} J?.1
Ou IJ.0 Oo
/J.O lo.O
£,
tJ
~
tj
.1' 1£ lgei 25:tl /tl/J,
It.
;'2, ~ f I-"'!'/ 4f.1 ta?.
6-Unkno'"'
9--0ther
Tot.al
L
- -
Per Cent
PerCa,t
NuNumber
Per Call
I Tomi Certain Doul>tlu I Tomi Certain Domtlul Total Certain 11111bllm Tot.al Certain
I Tomi Certain
/l
/)/)
(?
/J,,
.J'.t
'/ I /tJ.J
/J..6
.1t 1t
/J.O
'?/
/?./J l.o.o
7./ /J /)
244
1-t 9
ti
......
Naber
Tot.al Certain
PerC.t
Tot.al Certain Dolllllal Tot.al
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Evaluation
0-Balloon
l·Astnmomical
2-Aircraft
3-Liaht Phinom.
4•Birds
f>lnsUffic. Info.
·-
7-l'lydlololical
!I-Other
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astmnomical
2•Aircrafl·
3-LiahlPhenom.
4-Binls
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psychological
8-UnknoMI
!I-Other
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-LiafllPh"'°m.
,4.Birds
5-Clouds, Oust. etc.
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psycholoaical
II-Unknown
9-0ther
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Liat,IPhenom.
4•Birds
~Clouds,Ou!lt.etc.
r.tnsuffic. Info.
7-Psychololical
II-Unknown
9-0the,
Total
245
I
I
I
I
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astlonomlcal
I-Aircraft
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
3-Ll&lilPho»m.
I-Birds
$-Clouds, Dust, et~
6-lnsufll~llfo.
7-Psydlllolicol
8-Umo•
9-01ller
Total
Evaluation
0-Batloon
I-Astronomical
2-Airaaft
3-Liallll'IIOllm.
I-Birds
5-Clouds, Dust, el~
6-insuffi~ ~ro.
7-Psydlololical
8-Unlolo,.,
9-0ther
Total
Evaluation
0-Batioon
1-AsbuoomicaJ
!-Aircraft
3-Liallll'IIIIIOII.
4-Birds
5-Clouds, Dost, el~
6-lnsuffic. Info.
I
7-Psydiololical
8-Unlolo,.,
9-0ther
I
I
I
I
Total
Evaluatian
0-Balloon
l-Astrono111ical
2-Airc,aft •
3-Li&lil Ph-.
&-lnsufli~ aro.
7-Psydlllo&i<II
I
8--
9-0lher
Total
246
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Evaluation
0-Billoon
I-Astronomical
2-Alrctaft
3-Liaf,IPha,om.
4-Blrds
5-CIOClds, Dus~ etc.
6-lnsufflc. ~fo.
7-Psychololical
a.~Iller
Total
Evaluation
0-Batloon
l•AstJonomlcal
2-Aircratt
3-Liafl!Pha,om.
4-Blrds
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
7-Psycoolojical
8-UnknoMI
~Iller
Total
Evaluation
0-Batloon
1-Asbonomlcal
2•ilrcratt
3-LlafllPha,om.
4-Blrds
5-Clouds, Du~ ate.
6-lnsufflc.blfo.
~Psycoolo1lcal
I-Unknown
~Iller
Total
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astmnomlcal
2-Aircrlft
3-Llafll Phanom.
4•Birds
6-lnsufflc. Info.
7-Psyitolopcal
I-Unknown
9-0lh"
Total
247
I
UBL£ ,{223
(',,,p,r
IYEw
Evaluation
OG#T//1/65
UAdd/~ l'Tt,,A'C
/,/,?sh' //IIG Tl"•
Number
Percent
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total it:ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
0-Ballooo
/t
?
25'
t?,/J
5:/ l«I
tJ
/4
l•Astronomical
-7,!J
II, :2,
?,d /I.( L,
1/J
It)
2-Aircraft
"
4/.
53
/1!,
3-Ligtrt Phenom.
f'.
4-Birds
/.l
I
0
5-Clouds, Dus~ el~
/J
/)
6-tnsuffl~ Info.
fl/
tJ
7-Psychological
"7
/)
&-Unlmo..
26
9-0lher
5'
/)
Total
ISCJ
2f?
65" fff.,f 1...7 ..ft.Ii
/
.5' I/ " / /.7
tJ 17,/J f?/J t?.,:? ?L
0 ;J.tJ !'Jtfl tUJ /J
f'.
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26 ;,/.I.. /J/J /¢1.. 15'
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16
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ALL
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E///IU/,£[1/JIJ/
b/lt,9/l'CI:
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tot~
?t}
tJ
17
5T,f/l TEG IC'
II(
Tb'E
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L
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Evaluation
0-Balloon
/ .':C /J'l d.?
!cJ tJ, /J., tJ 91
3' ///J :J.7 ,t 7
/ f ,;,,/ tJJ) //,.-£
5 2 '1 1.f ,:I ..
4✓ 1/C' 160,,:: drl.lJ l,;'v_
5V'!1T£D(
,11(,;,_,,,,,,,<C /JF ,I:
c1RE,£S
'=""L M,01uEs1
Number
Per Cent
Numbe,
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Do,btful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtful Total Certain 0ou,tfu
~-3 5.'7 ,l[tJ ,V
9.1 .Y/.:J ?'7
fl1 1/1'. 6 f l ?I_!, 21
.2
5'
I-Astronomical
%)
f?
2-Aircraft
I/
j'
3-Light PhEIIOm.
tJ
I
I
4-Birds
/)
/
6-lnsuffic.lnfu.
I
l'7
II
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7-Psycllological
5
5-Clouds,Du~et~
1),,,,,,.,..,,,.,
-',4,:n
1 .fo 1/.:Z 4% 1£.0
?
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ii'
?3
II.
11/
-<''7
55 d.7 ?. I, 2f.f
L/d II. t, lf:Z H.¥
N
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1'9
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tJ t?.tJ Cl./) acJ
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.; 5,'1 17. tJ 5. 7
t?
tJ.CJ
//
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17
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(l. tJ 11</. ..J'/
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17,/J l?,;, 4//
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17
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17_,-; IJ'.t.
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If?
?£
d
t:?
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4,;-
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I.
£,
J[
11
Total
~{,
L.Z ff$ '7',;_p :f_t;,p 1/VJ II.ft- 5t !ff$' IH"'.t, ?9.i It%! 11,;-<? d;: :ZCJ"'{ '11? ?f ¥ /a{
Evaluation
S/Ch"T//YGS
,,,~
-
SAN
r/7£
"·
~
0
P,AdWGSf
"FAlrR/lL
lf'E6'1CJIY'
- ,:;,,- t"E"""'"""'' llRw£s1
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain DOIJbtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tot~ Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooul.ltfu
f
;J
1/..1
/)
t:J
tJ.O
I
t:J
I tJ.o
g /,/fl
t? l'J. I,
IJ.tJ ;df
;J_ cJ 17. CJ
0-Balloon
1f?
f?
?I.
// n
'7.I t'.1./
?,
t,
l•Astronomical
I/
.3' 14
I?. ff
2-'7 /t.!i
G'
.5'
2~Aircraft
17
//
? !?
1;.t
a
t5.C7
Q
1.t,
3-LightPhenom.
tJ
CJ
l'7
4-Binls
tJ
0
/)
5-Clouds, Ou~ et~
/)
/J
/}
tJ.tJ atJ Cl.O
/J.0 tJ.tJ tJ.tJ
r?.tJ Cl.I'? t2tJ
6-lnsuffic. Info.
16
tJ
7-Psyct,ological
I
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II..
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;LI_;
/J/J
1/...1
I
tJ
tJ
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Cl.
/J
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5./, It/ 9
?./ //._ 7 22.2 J'ff 9
I J.I} o.r7 /. 9
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/1 /',
J.
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? 1?
&-Unknown
Z2-
?,J
tJO ;ft,
&
cJ
h Ill
CJ./}
II. I
9-0ther
/
0
:i,
/J.9
1U
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/J.9
I i 2.1
I
rJ
I
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/. 9
Total
g't,
:?/.
/Ii '71,.1 £ft. I/CJ,::?
.J'!,
,£:2.-
J.'1
.5-7 5?..! 4C).7 lt'tJ.
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
/'J.O 151
.?.I/- /J 17 24
(/'¢ 11/!i /J,/J 21.;;
,:; 2.11 ;JC} 2.1//5, /
9-0ther
cJ
PerCmt
Total Certain Doubtful Total
4.? 23. 9
1,.3 4. 9 //.2?.4' l.t, J'.?
J'
I. tJ I. 5'
0 J7.(} tJ.tJ /J.o
<'I
I
fJ
,f'£G/tllll
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I
I
PerCmt
Total Certain Doubtful Total
I
I
I
I
I
248
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Evaluation
0-Ball"'°
I-Astronomical
2-Aircraft
3-Ligll!Ph010m.
4-Birds
6-lnsuffi~ lolo.
7-Psydlological
&-Unknown
9-0lller
Total
4211
-
,;9~.
~
£/r,4L(/AT7(2,(/
-
A'AL"•·•~
ff
/1P
!{Lt.
~---,,
f/6b'T(lfGS
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Certain Ooubtlul Tolal Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ool.d>tful Tolal Certain Doubtful Total
,'/ S.7 2.¢ ff/
fl I li?.,:J '7<7/.. Ifft
VJ 5:Z,
9 /) 141
0-Balloon
/$,
5
1-Astnmaical
1/
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2-Airaaft
II
If
/}
/)
/)
I
t:J
_,,
3-Li&ill Pllaiom.
4-Binls
/}
5-Clouds, Dust, et~
~
6-lnsuffi~ mlo.
/I,
/}
7-Psychological
/}
/J
8-Unknown
5J
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9--0ther
I
I.
Total
//9
I
/)/.
rJ.tJ /{/',
11£
-?'-1
15
:z,
l.f
2,
:2! ~,;
4 I. I
/J/J
/JC'
/JC
/)
/
tJ.O £.I/
/}
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2.. tJ.tl
;t,
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5.f ?;;-,J
llt?
1'/..
II
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at? / ) / }
tJ
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t?
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f
~-9 fJ/..
.J
?/ 2/tJ !,~ 1 //.1.1 l/,:1/)
171
1
/J.5
.Sr,f'#Tc'GtC
Number
Per Cent
Nuober
Per Call
ertain lloubtlul Tolal Certain Ooubllul Total Certain Ooubtfu Total Certain Doubtful Total
5 .J'/ !¥ff ~:! 1'(I,
22. /Ir- 1.J.1 /:t-.5 26:~
~-//-
'7/J
:ti'it::
I lh-
Number
Evaluation
I&'.
I.?
-?:LI /5:9
/. I :z_,z
t?t- tJ,/.
II I I
acJ ?.:2
tJ.t tJ.tJ
tl.tl iftl
/)/.
1.1
(15 II?'~ l1d1.1 1~1, /a/
il2i
~AI.C,tU.E.5
LPS
Evaluation
l~,:,,AN,1£
,tJ;:- 5,.,,ru h;wt:Sf
Per Casi
Number
Number
PerCent
Number
PerCenl
Per Cent
Nulltler
Ce!Uin Ollllbtlul Total Certain Ooubtlul Total Certain llomtful Total Certain Doubtful Total t:ertain Ooubtlul Total Cerlain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu Total Certain Ooubllul Tola!
0-Balloon
21
/t}
?/
11..1
h 2VJ
I
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l·Asbonomical
5
fl
1-r
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1/..!
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✓ ,? i
2..Aircraft
1¥
?_
I
d
I
5
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//. 5 15:3
JS:4
1?2
/
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0
/
I.Ji ,,:/fl 11
tJ
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/J.O /1.5
15:d /9.2
3-liihtl'II.....
!,
d
12.2
41 It.,;
2..
1.1
/J. t) 1.1
0
J?o
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0
tJ.v tlO
4-Binls
tJ
0
tJ
5-Cloud~ Dust, et~
0
t)
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0
t?
6-IBSUffic. Info.
f
ti
tJ
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0 J?.t
4 ,,;:a
I-Psychological
2,
I
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0
I .f.f
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/
¢
,;--
16
It?
&-Unknown
.fl
9-0ther
3
!" 1/J /J.tJ 'I tJ
.f' /. ?' ,n ~~
I
tJ .?/ 11t atJ 11/J
0
i 'T/J /J.O 1/J
Total
QI
,2,t/ 115 ''/~ I 1,/J.9 ,,,,,
/J
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tJ./)
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/£id
.£.t; t/.6 M.6 111?/,1
249
I
y-,,,,.,,
A&w
Evaluation
#/'"'"' ,t!i'tl"'~
Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total
/.../LJ.--U
A/,,-
llf"'LAl/lrr
-r/JA/
0-Balloon
II
7
/fj
f{',:;
<a 1.?.9
q
I,
/;,' 11.6
'7.7 lf.Z
1/.
'7
1-Asmmomical
//4
/,.
2Z /f'.q.
<{7 1'1/
1/,J
J{
If 1/f.1 ;,J.? ,;.7. I
31
117
2-Aircraft
?/
q
d/1 l}/L,1
7.,:? 71.t?
1/J
f'5
z.
.24 11.' 12d M.7 5'.I
• 3-Lii,hl Phenom.
I
dff' f',{i
4-Birds
/'J
/'J
.f /.t
/'J ,o.;;:
/I/
/
2!> 9. ✓ 5.J' 11¢'7
4/ iff'$ Sf 2-I/
LL I. /2.Q p/7 271
,1/J
?,
tJ
tJ.tJ /JtJ
/ / / , 15.4"
l{/J S.¢
/J
/}
z
j'}
/
/4 ltN /JtJ il"J't
,:; .J'.'t 00 .J'9
IJ'
z
0
t.,
f'.J' 12'1 ~1.i 1'1'! /t}(/
,;-;[
6-Clouds, Dus~ et~
/}
0
0
l?.u
6-lnsuffi~ ~lo.
,9/J
/}
IJ/}
;,;;-,;
7-Psydlllogical
'7
;{!
tJ
0
?
s.-.
3-Unkno..
9-0tt,,,
,;-
/}
Total
//'.,t,
/'JI,
c:J
/
/,?
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/J
/J
?,
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$t.
'111
I
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u'tJ
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/}{)
2.t.
0
I
I.J tJ.o
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tJ
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:J.1,,
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2-Aircraft
ii
6
ff
3-LightPh810m.
/J
/
4-Binls
I
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6-Clouds, Dus~ et~
/)
/)
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
//
/}
-~,d,0,:_
7
16
2Z lifi
ff:?
/.,Z,
f't)
.-,: (/ 272 29
:JJ'5 l'l
IZ ,:;
l'l 1.U
f. 9
/
I'! 11
l,Z,
I
1.t,
tl.tJ /.&
/
tJ I'.? /1 /,//.) j')/.) I?
111. tJ.tJ if.I, ,?,1
,: ?, /J,/.) t.. z,
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K
II (J't: a /J /.?/, l'f
II
I-Psychological
;;-
/}
//
/}
9-0ttier
✓
/)
d' //q a;:; ,U
/4
Total
1,./
:7(?
j(/ '15.1 11/.1 10t7.
pf/)
t:?;
SAA/
IS
I-Astronomical
/tJ
HAAI(' 151'/J
½
J'
,I}~
/.l
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.,:'
/)
?.
:?,
/, 1!,
/Z
/')
/
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I/
1.,5 /,ltJ
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;/}
/0 ,/J.J'
tJ
2,
tl. /}
IJQ
/J
tJ
/,S-
?
tJ
tJ tJ.tJ /J. t) tJ t} tJ
.?9 22.9 tJ /} 22.9 /p
//[
.J' /~
J
tJ
2,
2,
5
'55 tJ.O /.t;':'5
.J' I ZJ 52
/JI} /J, /4
ao
/J
/Cl
-?7
'J!z
?,
1
.Z.f?
I
I
;2/
..?
/J/
/}
/}
/J
"?,/}
a/J Cl.Cl
/'J
I?
1-? I")
t:? :27 /5.I? ,:!/J 15.u
/J,/4
a tJ /,I/,
/J.O !?
;,fl_tJ :27
/} /) /,:!,
5
/J,/.)
/}
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/J
/7
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I
7
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/J
s
:7.% t?!?
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/7
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2,7.;:'.
tl,/J
:zJ.t
4z
q'
/}
d
2.:z.
/J,/J
:z.z
d-t I/~ 7' 'fl ti ?_f.( /OtJ.
119
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,;
'I
5
5' 4,,
f
f /} 1/.7
1/J £. I.
;',I IM.9 //.~ M.6
fl I/./,,
?6
t7
IL,.6
1/g -?d..J'
9
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/JI~
/J.O
I
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0
/)
/}
/J /)
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/}/)
j'}
/}
Hlouds, Dus~ et~
I}
/J
I}
/J.r,
au
/1/}
/J
/
6-lnsuffic.lnfo.
;i:;
/}
/,{,
,,,:-,::
l{/J ;5.,;
ff
/J
-?,
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0 UJ
g, .J'
1./J
I.ti
2.9
/J
l?.d
{J,0 19. (t
1.i? ,;,_,;
.I,
tJ
/.J
I
I}
tJ
£
I
13 10.J 111 2,Z,,.J /00.
..SI
;:Z,
dr 1'.2./ 11. 9 ;(J{J.
Total
ffO
97 l/44<'9 -7<1 1/J/'
PerC111t
Total Certain Dwbtful Total
41 lf?O 771 11.1 111111
ff
1//l(f'L
C, >,P l,l/i5/
{!£A/.,-,,,,:.
??YE
;t,,, ,,u,,, t'J~ I ,,,r,e111. /i;,e;,,,:.57
7'fi" 22.4
9.'1 .f. 9 12.i:
/dL
1(}
/, 1J
/./ .7.9
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/J.u tJO tJ.o
j-:,
<?'
I
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:t.l Z./
S£ 1.2.8'
// 11 //J, 9,
tJ
9-0ther
{J/'}
"7,- /. ' ,,~,,,,, h,1,,,,,,le.:I
,;-
t?
I
I
Pr(; / / J / ) /
/.?
¢1 11-d ;f.Z, •?;,(,;
j/J
?;;, :J.d /,,/l
17'
(j/J
~z
? .19 1.1.tJ ?. ,;I !VI ;J 17 ?tJ 7. z, '1.4 /t.t
// ///1 /7,Q 1.:,/4 _2d,1 ?d //} dd l1x'9 S/. 1~,.
2-Aircraft
7-Psychologica!
/
tJ
rr :z, 8' :2,, It.<-
I/
;J
W-"'L .-9,,,i,ce
3-Light Phenom.
3-Unknown
//J
Ji' /6
,?,c-,-,:
/J,V
Number
Number
Percent
Numbe,
Number
Per Cent
Per Cent
Certain Doobtfu\ Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtfu
0-Balloon
,C:,,,
/JI.
t7. t)
.AAu,/-h'_::-5/
[),9y7 11 IV
8-Unknown
Evaluation
/!£".
:77/E
,4U//'A6 /)
£,
//,,
-~4J,
"?1
5"' 21 11,_5
/J 25 /i?.5 I f {I 2J?
</ I(? .?I 4. I
..3
/}
/l/, ~o 00
0
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobllul Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Douhtfu
l•Astronomical
/4
ff
/1~
0-Batloon
/Jc? //..7
.2,/,,
f'.!/J
1'
II.
Fl 'IS ln't J'tU /al vz.z, qf 1170 118' n:z /tJt}, £5 ..?.!
d2.lr2
Evaluation
/,7,C
Number
Number
Per Cent
PerCenl
ertaln Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total pertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Tot~
PerCenl
Number
/J. /J :2..1
t1u 0.0 120
I /J /) ?J .2J
ff If', t, o.lJ 18'-t
I
1,f{
0
/J/J tJ,/J
ac
1/.I.
/J, I} 11.t
:7.3
IJ/}
:!.5
PerCmt
Total Certain Dwbtful Total
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
250
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
111,fL.E
1£2.U.
O'IL-li:
,£:Zl.J
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Asburmical
2-Aircraft
Higtrt Phenom.
4-Birds
5-Clouds, Dus~ etc.
6-lnsvffic.lnlo.
7-Psydlological
&-Unknown
9-0tlle,
Total
£ &L,l/,£Tl(MI
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
d, ,Jin, N&"DnnC
11/c
me
/J,C
//AL~• t~
,,,,
St:J,,.,.,,, We
Pe,Cent
Number
PerCa1t
Nual>er
PerCa1t
Number
Certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Dout,Hu
Number
Evaluation
)i' 14' j! .2.,; l,t.7' 2/4
5-5 112d :?/.( ~..:: /"7
1✓
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1/'7
q_ i' 71. 7
'71.
s?.d //.JJ /4
/$
2'/
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5
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1-A-ical
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9-0lfler
I
5
Total
£.3
/),<:
'1,,;::f-C',:~5
IA<
Evaluation
,:/ .J'/J 1£1
2,
t:l
?.ff V,9
d Id /,d ~-1
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/
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74,i 5.t, IIJ.?
t2E
sav.~~
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/JC
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/?AJ
5,:,,HU h#u,C<;
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Number
Certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubttu I Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total Certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubttul Total Certain Doubtfu
0-Balloon
Ii
I-Astronomical
5
2-Aircraft
/2,
Id ,tt· 11::t. 1Ll I :J{J'
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5 rt d.l _,;;/ /7.$
Hight Phonom.
7.
/J
11/
7./2
I
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/
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d 5.3 15. J? 2,/1
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11_,1
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11_/J
5.J'
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4-Birds
/}
/}
/}
/}/,
/)/}
/),'1
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5-Clouds,Du~etc.
IJ
/J
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6-lnsuffic. tnfo.
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7-Psycllological
?,
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2/J
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1'
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Total
7'5
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PerCalt
Total Certain Doubtful Total
/.J.tJ atJ /J/J
I
,;5 17.t? 5J'
I 55 /J/J ,,:.?
I IKJ' /,I IJ 5. J'
251
Per Cent
Total Certain Doubtful Total
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Evaluation
0-Balloon
1-Astmnomical
2-Aircraft
3-Ligh!Phenom.
4-Birds
6-lnsuffi~ Info.
7-Psydlological
8-Unlcnown
9-0ther
Total
c?dJ~c!r
ff
(),F
t!u1;, '£n
Evaluation
0-Balloon
51_
'5
/5
/I -7!t, ?.1 d..7' .2/
I~ 15.2 If./ 2'f.! /9
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()
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5-Clouds, Dust, et~
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at? /1/J /J
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15.Z '1" /&( 2, ?/J
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7, t. tJ.CJ 'l't.
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117
7-Psychological
5"
8-UnknoMI
?
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,j
Total
41-
/1
4/1
~,
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LL. IJ//1
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ClF
.?A
5/9,v
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n,,,,JL'<
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7,/4 2.2,.2.
21
;f .!1 152, 12.5. ?57 /.J
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~ 4.2, 1.4' £/.
5'
2$' '7,Q
? J4 l-'5"
/~
?
22,
2!,
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1.9 5.~ 15.4
?/J
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/J :27 /t.,6 ,///J 4.5
Cl 5 .J'.CJ tJt? 1CJ
i/tn, 41, ;dU 1,1.1 1-U,; /(JI) Iii/
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(}
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/;/
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PerCmt
Total Certain lloubllul Total
r/1£
CU'Wli?5r
/fcur/,,1/
lf"L A•~(; /JG
;AC;,,-4A,
'I ~I 11,;- I 1.5' 11.I. g
q
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15
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~
3
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A'EG /CJ/V
£.~,.,u
✓ ,-;'.5' £5 //Jt.
t. ¢1) 1. 9 158
14 l?.5'.1 /..!.?, 5t..9
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t?.tJ /J/J
tJ
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17
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tJ
ti
tJ
tJ 111.tJ ,51,/J /J.tJ
4 ;tJ,5 tJ,/J 1/,:1,5
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n,., ~./.
2'1
I/
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ff~ I
ti. 9 tt?t1
8-IJnknoMI
I~
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15 It.I t?./J It.,/
5 I.I a.2, 13
18 ,~d ;7 /} /9tl
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Total
11.,
2/
95 '/14 :n.1.. /n/).
9
5
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// IJ
252
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'1./ 17./J
Number
Number
Per Cent
Number
Per Cent
Percent
Nulliler
Certain OOllbtfuI Total Certain lloubtfu I Total Certain Doubtful Tolal Certain Ooobtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Douhtru
3-LightPbom.
6-Cloud~ Oust,~
/4,,,~,,,,t.
tf?JZ
1ll$L£
2-Aircraft
% ?5 l/n.</
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,,,,,, ~A,C£ &JC
0,,y ON
1-Astrooomical
0-Balloon
(Al
Number
PerCenl
Number
PerC"11
Nunler
PerC"11
Number
Certain OOllbtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certairi Doubtful Total Certain Ooobtful Total ~ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu
2-Airaaft
Evaluation
S/6ltTI/Y6S
7,¥£
PerCml
Total Certain lloubllul Total
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OJIJLE
.4..
Evaluation
·'L':" .,._,
A
-
,, r,1£ ·-
1211 lli?'Z-
r2F
E&L/1,?T/tJIV
;?C
,..,,,,, ~u
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1,,/£
S,:,1,r..1
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!~Astronomical
IQ
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1 5./ ...? / i'. 2, ?'!
2f ,/1, 11/J J1L 14.?.it 1'1
i It 1'1, fl 1, 1;;_ Ii J.J
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23 J.J.L I/ R 1'1."-
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L?
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Total
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L&s.
Evaluation
0-Balloon
1,/.
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5
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Total
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Iii 1/11/. 1,,-.u 11711.
1¢ ,t,::o 25.t? IM,>.
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Per Cent
Number
Number
Percent
Number
Number
Per Cent
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu
I-Astronomical
Per Cent
Total Certain O..blful Total
tJ./J /JI? /JK
.St''"r,,.,
_,_,r'
l~.4,lAA,n:-
',t//Cft5S
Nurl'ber
PerC01I
Number
ertain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Ooubtfu
it7.d ',JJ/ 1/J,f
2•Aircraft
7-Psychological
df£d5
,;>£,::;/OJI/
.!tl.!7
Hight Phenom.
8-Unknown
S/6HT//Jlte5
h/cu
Number
Per Cent
Number
PerC01t
Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doubtful Total Certain Doobtful Total
0.Balloon
·r
253 and 254
PerCa,t
Total Certain Doobllul Total
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APPENDIX B
WORKING PAPER FORMS
255 and 256
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INDEX OF FORMS
Page
Exhibit Bl.
Tentative Observers Data Sheet
.
259
Exhibit B2.
Tentative Observers Questionnaire
267
Exhibit B3.
U. S. Air Force Technical Information Sheet.
277
Exhibit B4.
Codes for Work Sheet
289
Exhibit BS.
Work Sheet .
297
Exhibit B6.
Codes for Card Bible.
301
Exhibit B7.
Card Bible
.
309
Exhibit BS.
Example of an IBM Card
313
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257 and Z58
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EXHIBIT Bl
TENTATIVE OBSERVERS DA TA SHEET
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259 and 260
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TENTAT'IVE
OBSERVERS DATA Slf.ti:ET
WherE: Choice is Given, Circle Proper
Answers, or Insert Answer
1.
Date of your ot,servation:
Day
2.
Month
Year
Date you reported the observation:
Day
J. lJhat time was it when you sighted the object:
A.M.
P.H.
Zone:
Eastern,
Month
Ye°ar
Hours
Hinutos
Daylight standard
Central,
Mo,.mtain,
Pacific,
Other
4.
Length of time object was observed.
Estimate:
1".finutas
Hours
Seconds
s. Where observed:
l5ostal Address
State
City or Toi-m
Country
Where were you at time of observation:
Inside building,
In Car,
Outdoors,
Other
~Vero you movir1g at any time du.ring this sighting:
Yes or No
8. Did you stop at any time during this sighting:
Yes or No
If 'you were moving - give
10.
How was object observed:
--D-ir,_e_c..,..t"'"i-on--
and
--S-i!-~e-ed
Na.1-(ed eye
Other glass (Window or Windshield)
BinocuJ.ars, Telescope, Theodolite
Other
------·-------
How did you happen to notice the object:
261
•
miles per hour.
Ey,:, glasses
11.
•
•
•
12.
lJ.
Describe what you saw as criefly as possible in the following spaces:
a.
Sound
b.
Shape
c.
Color
de
Size
e.
Number
f.
Light brightness
g.
LiGht color
h.
Motion
i.
Speed
j.
Other
How did object disappear from view:
------------Gradually
Suddenly or
Circle One
•
At any time did the object:
a.
Change direction.
b.
Change speed.
House, Tree,
d.
c.
Hove behind something; Cloud,
Blond with backgrou..'1d.
e.
Decrease
Other
in size.
f.
Decrease in brightnes.:o.
g.
Move in front of something.
h.
When you first looked at the object, uhat direction were you facing?
16.
L'hen you last saw the object, ,·Jhat direction were you facing?
17.
In the follouing Sketch A, draw lines
from the observer's eye to the circular
arc to show tha apparent elevation of the
object in the sky.
A.
When first seen, label a.
B.
When last seen, label b.
Directly
Overhead
Ob~erver 1 s
:tye
SETCH A
----
-------
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262
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18.
On the following Sketch B, label a at
the apparent position of the object
when first, seen and b at point last
Overhead
seen.
Trace the appar:3nt path of
the ob,ject between points a and b.
If possible label 1, 2, 3, etc.,
along the traced path to show the
(/
successive positions of the object
Horizon
after equal intervals of time dur
Obser_v_e_r~•-s--~Horizon
Eye
SKETCH B
ing the sighting.
19.
0
In Sketch C please show the
observed features of the object
such as;
A,
Apparent shape, {were edges
poil..ted or rounded),
13,
Apparent direction of r:iotion
( .si1 ow by arrow), a'1d
C.
Other detall::i, exhaust, trails,
SKETCH C
tails, surfaces, etc.
:?O •
The sun and the moon are ::,;1ovm below as they appear in their correct relative
size.
SUN
In this s::etch D, show the appar.snt siza of what you saw.
OBJECT
SKETC;-J: D
263
21.
In your own words please describe the sighting you observed.
if desired.
Use sketches
All observations from the time of first sighting to the time
of dissappearance are important.
Include a description of the weather,
wind, and cloud condttions at the time of this sighting.
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264
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22.
Your fuJ.1 name:
23.
Your address:
24. Your occupation:
25.
Last school you attended:
26.
Year of last attendd.Dce at this school:
27. ?lease list the names and addresses o.f persons who di.scussed thj_s sighting
with you.
28.
It is not necessary to li.st t:1e names of officials or investigators.
Further cor.JJ:,Gnts which you believe are i:nportant shou.ld be entered here.
Use additional s!v,ets of the same sizc-3 if nocr::ss~r:y.
265 and 266
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EXHIBIT B2
TENTATIVE OBSERVERS QUESTIONNAIRE
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267 and 268
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TErJTATIVE
OBSERVERS QUESTIONNAIRE
SECTION A
1. When did you see the object:
1.1 Date: -...-Day
Year
Month
A,M, or P.M.
1.2 Time of Day:
Hrs.
Min.
l.J Time Zone: (Circle One):
a.
b.
Eastern
Central
c.
Mountain
(Circle One):
d.
e.
a.
b.
1.4
Pacific
Other
Daylight Saving
Standard
Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you are of
your answer to the above question 1.2:
a.
b.
Certain
Fairly certain
c.
d.
Not very sure
Just a guess
2. Where were you when you saw the object:
Postal Address
City or Town
state
Additional Remarks:
3. Where were you located when you saw the object:
(Circle One):
a.
b.
c.
Inside a building
In a car
Outdoors
d.
In an airplane
e.
At sea
f.
Other
------
3,1 Were you:
(Circle One):
a.
b.
In the business section of a city?
In the residential section of a city?
c•
In open countryside?
d.
e.
Flying near an airfield?
Flying over a city?
Flying over open country?
g.
Ot)lEJr
r.
11
269
I
(Circle One)
--------------
Country
4.
How did you happen to notice the object?
,. When did you report to some official that you had seen the object?
Month
Day
Year
SECTION B
6. What were you doing at the time you saw the object?
6.1 What had you been doing for the JO minutes before you saw the object?
Try to list the activity or activities and the approximate amount
of time spent on each.
7. Were you moving at any time while you saw the object? (Circle One):
Yes
No
or
IF you answered YES, then complete the following questions:
7.1 What directionwere you moving?
e. South
(Circle One): a. North
r. Southwest
b. rlortheast
g. West
c. East
h. Northwest
d. Southeast
7. 2 How fast were you moving?
------miles per hour.
7.3 Did you stop at any time while you were looking at the object?
(Circle One):
Yes
or
No
8. What direction were you looking when you first saw the object?
(Circle One):
a.
b.
c.
d.
North
Northeast
East
Southeast
270
e.
South
f.
g.
h.
Southwest
West
Northwest
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\
8.1 What.direction were you looking when the object disappeared?
(Circle One):
a.
b.
c.
d.
North
Northeast
East
Southeast
e.
South '
g.
West
Northwest
r. Southwest
h.
8.2 Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you are of
your answer to the above question and preceding question ( 8 and
8.1).
a.
b.
Certain
Fairly certain
c.
d,
Not very sure
Just a guess
9. Were you wearing eye glasses when you saw the object? (Circle One):
Yes
10.
or
No
How was the object seen?
(Circle One):
a. Through window glass
b. Through windshield
c. • Through binoculars
d. Through telescope
e.
Through theodolite
g.
h.
Through open space
Other
r. Through sunglasses
11. What do you remember about the weather conditions at the time you saw the
object?
11.1
CLOUDS ( Circle One)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
11.3 WEATHER {Circle One)
Clear sky
Hazy
Scattered clouds
Thick or heavy clouds
Don't remember
11.2 WIND (Circle One)
a,
b.
c.
d.
a.
b.
C,
d.
e.
Dry
Fog, Mist, or light rain
Moderate or heavy rain
Snow
Don I t remember
11.4 TEMPERATURE (Circle One)
Ho wind
Slight breeze
Strong wind
Don't remember
Cold
Cool
c. Wann
d. Hot
e. Don't remember
a.
b.
SECTION C
12.
Estimate how long you saw the object?
Hours
271
Minutes
Seconds
12.l Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you are of your
answer to Question 12:
a.
b.
Certain
Fairly sure
Did the object look:
-
( Circle One)
Solid
Did the object at any time:
c.
d.
Not very sure
Just a guess
or
Transparent
(Circle One for each question)
J.4.1 Change direction?
14.2 Change speed?
14.3 Change size?
14.4 Change color?
14.5 Break up into parts or
explode?
14.6 Give off smoke?
14.7 Change brightness?
14.8 Flicker., throb., or
pulsate?
14.9 Remain motionless?
15.
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
-
No
Yes
Yes
No
-
Yes
( Cj_rcle One):
Don't know
Don't know
Don't know
Don 1 t know
Don't know
No
Don 1 t know
Don't know
Don•t know
No
Don't know
No
Yes
Did the object give off a light?
15.1
16.
Yes
Yes
- Yes
No
Don't know
IF you answered YES., what was the color of the light?
Tell in a few vJOrds the following things about the object?
16.1 Sound
16. 2 Color
-----------------------
-----------------------
IF there was MORE THAN ONE object., then how many were there?
Draw a picture of how they were arranged and put an arrow to show the
direction they were traveling.
18.
Did the object at any time:
18.1 Move behind something?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
Don't know
IF you answered~, then tell what it moved behind.
272
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18.2 Move in front of something?
(C1.rcle One)
~
No
Don't know
IF you answered~, then tell what it moved in front of.
18.3 Blend with the background?
(Circle One)
~
No
Don't know
Which of the following objects is about the same actual size as the object
you saw? (Circle One):
a.
b.
c.
cl.
e.
Pea
Baseball
Basketball
Bicycle wheel
Office desk
f.
g.
h.
i.
j.
Automobile
Small airplane
Large airplane
Dirigible
Other
19.1 Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you are of your
answer to Question 19.
a.
,._
vo
20.
c.
d.
Not very sure
Uncertain
Try to tell the following things about the object:
20.1
20.2
20.3
20.4
How high above the earth was it?
________feet.
How far was it from you? _____ feet or _ _ _ _ _miles.
How fast was it going? .,.....__,_.,..._...,..._miles per hour.
Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you are of your
ans·wer to the above questions:
a.
b.
21.
Certain
Fairly certain
Certain
Fairly certain
c.
d.
Wot very sure
Just a guess
c.
Other
How did the object disappear from View?
(Circle One):
a.
b.
Suddenly
Gradually
---------
d. Don't remember
SECTION D
22.
In the fol:!.owing sketch, imagine your eye at the point shov-rn. Place an 11 A11
on the curved line to show how high the object was above the horizon
( skyline) when you first saJ: it, Place a 11 B11 to show v1here it was when
0v h d
you last saw it.
e ea
.:,
't,----_._----Horizon
You
273
In the following sketch place an 11A11 at the position the object was when
y o u ~ saw it, and a "B" at its posi.tion when you~ saw it.
Overhead
Q
Horizon _
.________
__
_..__ Horizon
You
Dr~rw a picture that will show the motion that the object made. Place an
11 A" at the beginning of its path and a 11 B11 at the end of its path.
Draw a picture that will show the shape of the object. Label and include
in your sketch any details of the object that you saw and place an arrow
beside the dravnng to show the direction the object was moving.
274
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SECTION E
26. Was this the first time that you have seen an object like this?
(Circle One):
Yes
or
No
26.1 IF you answered N0 1 then when, where, and under what conditions did
you see other ones?
--------------------____________________________
,_
27.
In your opinion what do you think the object was and what might have caused
it?
26.
Give the following information about yourself:
NAME - - - - 1
....a_s_t_M,...am_e_ _ __
ADDRESS ____,.,,,.S.,.tr_e_e..,.t_ _ __
TELEPHONE J\TUMBER
Middle Name
First Name
City
Zone
----------
What is your present job?
Age
------
Sex
------
State
---------------------
29. Was anyone else with you at the time you saw the object?
or
No
29 .1 IF you answered ~
did they see the object too?
or No
(Circle One):
29.2 Please list their names and addresses:
(Circle One): Yes
1
~
275
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JO.
Please add here any further comments which you believe are important.
Use adcli.tional sheets of the same size paper, if necessary.
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EXHIBIT B3
U. S. AIR FORCE TECHNICAL INFORMATION SHEET
277 and 278
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u. s.
TECHNICAL
INFORMATIO.N
2.
1. When did you see the object?
SHEET
Time of day:
Hour
Day
Month
(Circle One):
Year
Minutes
A.M.
or
P.M.
3. Time zone:
(Circle One): a, Eastern
b. Central
C, Moun ta in
d. Pacific
e. Other
(Circle One):
a. Daylight Saving
b. Standard
4. Where were you when you saw the object?
Nearest Postol Address
City or Town
Stote or Country
Additional remarks:
5. Estimate how long you saw the object,
Hours
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FORCE
This questionnaire has been prepared so that you can give the U. S. Air Force as much
information as possible concerning the unidentified aerial phenomenon that you have observed.
Please try to answer as many questions as you possibly can. The information that you give will
be used for research purposes, and will be regarded as confidential material. Your name will not
be used in connection with any statements, conclusions, or publications without your permission.
We request this personal information so that, if it is deemed necessary, we may contact you for
further details.
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AIR
5.1
Minutes
Seconds
Circle one of the following to indicate how certain you ore of your answer to Question 5.
a. Certain
b. Fairly certain
c. Not very sure
d. Just a guess
6. What was the conditia, of the sky?
(Circle One):
7.
d. Just a trace of daylight
e. No trace of daylight
f. Don't remember
a. Bright daylight
b. Dull daylight
c. Bright twi I ight
IF you saw the object during DAYLIGHT, TWILIGHT, or DAWN, where was the SUN located as you looked at
the object?
(Circle One): a. In front of you
b. In back of you
C, To your right
d. To your left
e. Overhead
f. Don't remember
279
8.
IF you saw the object at NIGHT, TWILIGHT, or DAWN, what did you notice concerning the STARS and MOON?
8.1
8.2 MOON (Circle One):
STARS (Circle One):
a. None
a. Bright moonlight
b. A few
b. Dull moonlight
c. Many
c. No moonlight -
d. Don't remember
d. Don't remember
pitch dark
9. Was the object brighter than the background of the sky?
(Circle One):
10.
b. No
a. Yes
c. Don't remember
IF it was BRIGHTER THAN the sky background, was the brightness like that of an automobile headlight?:
(Circle One) a. A mile or more away (a distant car)?
b. Several blocks away?
c. A block away?
d. Severa I yards away?
e. Other
11. Did the object:
(Circle One for each question)
a. Appear to stand still at any time?
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Suddenly speed up and rush away at any time?
Break up into parts or explode?
Give off smoke?
Change brightness?
Change shape?
Flicker, throb; or pulsate?
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Don't Know
Don't Know
Don't Know
Don't Know
Don't Know
Don't Know
Don't Know
12. Did the object move behind something at anytime, particularly a cloud?
(Circle One):
it moved behind:
Yes
No
Don't Know.
IF you answered YES, then tell what
.
13. Did the object move in front of something at anytime, particularly a cloud?
(Circle One):
it moved in front of:
14. Did the object appear:
Yes
No
Don't Know.
(Circle One):
a. Solid?
IF you answered YES, than tell what
b. Trans parent?
c. Don't Know.
15. Did you observe the object through any of the fol lowing?
a.
b.
c.
d.
Eyeglasses
Sun glasses
Windshield
Window glass
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
e. Binoculars
f. Telescope
g. Theodolite
h. Other
280
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
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16. Tell in a few words the following things about the object.
a. S o u n d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b. C o l o r - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
17. Draw a picture that will show the shape of the object or objects. Label and include in your sketch any details
of the object that you saw such as wings, protrusions, etc., and especially exhaust trails or vapor trails. Place
an arrow beside the drawing to show the direction the object was moving.
18. The edges of the object were:
e. Other _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
(Circle One): a. Fuzzy or blurred
b. Like a bright star
c. Sharply outlined
d. Don't remember
19. IF there was MORE THAN ONE object, then how many were there?
Draw a picture of how they were arranged, and put an arrow to show the direction that they were traveling.
281
20. Draw a picture that will show the motion that the object or objects made. Place an "A• at the beginning
of the path, a •B• at the end of the path, and show any changes in direction during the course.
21. IF POSSIBLE, try to guess or estimate what the real size of the object was in its longest dimension.
feet.
22. How large did the object or objects appear as compared with one of the following objects held in the hand
and at about arm's length?
(Circle One):
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
Head of a pin
Pea
Dime
Nickel
Quarter
Half dollar
g.
h.
i.
j.
k.
Silver dollar
Baseball
Grapefruit
Basketball
Other
22.1 (Circle One of the following to indicate how certain you are of your answer to Question 22.
a. Certain
b. Fairly certain
c. Not very sure
d. Uncertain
1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --------;
23. How did the object or objects disappear from view?
---------------------------------------------·
24. In order that you can give as clear a picture as possible of what you saw, we would like for you to imagine that you could
construct the object that you saw,
Of what type material would you make it? How large would it be, and what shape
would it have? Describe in your own words a common object or objects which when placed up in the sky would give the
same appearance as the object which you saw.
282
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11
26, Were you (Circle One)
25, Where were you located when you saw the object?
(Circle One):
a. In the business section of a city?
a. Inside a building
b. In a car
c. Outdoors
d. In an airplane
e. At sea
f. Other
b.
c.
d.
e.
In the residential section of a city?
In open countryside?
Flying near an airfield?
Flying over a city?
f. Flying over open country?
g. Other
27, What were you doing at the time you saw the object, and how did you happen to notice it?
.
28. IF you were MOVING IN AN AUTOMOBILE or o1her vehicle at the time, then complete the following questions:
28.1 What direction were you moving? (Circle One)
a. North
b. Northeast
e, South
f. Southwest
C, East
d. Southeast
28.2 How fast were you moving?
9• West
h. Northwest
miles per hour.
28.3 Did you stop at any time while you were looking at the object?
(Circle One)
No
Yes
29. What direction were you looking when you first saw the object? (Circle One)
a. North
b. Northeast
e. South
f. Southwest
c. East
d. Southeast
g. West
h. Northwest
30. What direction were you looking when you last saw the object? (Circle One)
a. North
b. Northeast
e. South
f. Southwest
c. East
d. Southeast
9• West
h. Northwest
31. If you are familiar with bearing terms (angular direction), try to estimate the number of degrees the object was
from true North and also the number of degrees it was upward from the horizon (elevation).
31.1 When it first appeared:
a. From true North
b. From horizon
degrees.
degrees,
31.2 When it disappeared:
a. From true North
b. From horizon
degrees.
degrees.
283
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32. In the following sketch, imagine that you are at the point shown, Place an •A" on the curved I ine to show how
high the object was above the horizon {skyline) when you first saw it, Place a "B• on the same curved line to
show how high the object was above the horizon (skyline) when you last saw it.
33. In the following larger sketch place an "A" at the position the object was when you first saw it, and a "Bn at its
position when you last saw it. Refer to smaller sketch as an example of how to complete the larger sketch.
284
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34. What were the weather conditions at the time you saw the object?
34.1 CLOUDS (Circle One)
34.2 WIND (Circle One)
a. No wind
a.
b.
c.
d.
Clear sky
Hazy
Scattered clouds
Thick or heavy clouds
e. Don't remember
b. SI ight breeze
c. Strong wind
d. Don't remember
34.3 WEATHER (Circle One)
34.4 TEMPERATURE (Circle One)
a. Dry
b. Fog, mist, or light rain
c. Moderate or heavy rain
d. Snow
e, Don't remember
a,
b.
c.
d.
Cold
Cool
Warm
Hot
e. Don't remember
35, When did you report to some off ic ia I that you had seen the object?
Day
Month
Year
f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - · · ··-··------'
36, Was anyone else with you at the time you saw the object?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
36. 1 IF you answered YES, did they see the object too?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
36.2 Please list their names and addresses:
37, Was this the first time that you had seen an object or objects like this?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
37.1 IF you answered NO, then when, where, and under what circumstances did you see other ones?
-----------------------------------·
38, In your opinion what do you think the object was and what might have caused it?
285
39. Do you think you can estimate the speed of the object?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ m.p.h.
IF you answered YES, then what speed would you estimate?
40. Do you think you can estimate how far away from you the object was?
(Circle One)
Yes
No
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ feet.
IF you answered YES, then how far oway would you say it was?
41. Please give the following information about yourself:
NAME-----,--,-~----Last Name
ADDRESS
Middle Name
First Name
Zone
City
Street
Stote
TELEPHONE NUMBER _ _ _ _ _ _ __
What is your present j o b ? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Age _ _ _ __
Sex _ _ _ _ _ __
Please indicate any special educational training that you have had.
a. Grade school _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
e. e, Technical school _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
b. High school__________
(Type) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
c. College _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
f. Other special training _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
d. Post graduate _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
42. Date you completed this questionnaire:
Day
Month
Year
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U. S. A I R FOR C E T EC H HI CAL
I H FORMAT IO H SH E E T
(SUMMARY DA TA)
In order that your information may be filed and coded as accurately as possible, please use
the following space to write out a short description of the event that you observed. You may re•
peat information that you have already given in the questionnaire, and add any further comments,
statements, or sketches that you believe are important. Try to present the details of the observa•
tion in the order in which they occurred. Additional pages of the same size paper may be attached
if they are needed,
NAME _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
(Do Not Write in This Space)
(Please Print)
CODE:
SIGNATURE _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
DATE _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
287
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L__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ I
288
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EXHIBIT B4
CODES FOR WORK SHEET
289 and 290
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CODES
CODE 1. GENERAL
a. Every column must have at least one entry. If no data are
available for any column, the Y should be used.
b.
If a number in any column is used to enter data, then X
qualifies the data as indicated in the Code for the specific
column.
CODE 25 DURATION UNITS
CODE 28 IATITUDE
CODE 32 LONGITUDE
X South latitude
X East longitude
X
y
y
O Days
1 Hours
2 Minutes
3 Seconds
0
0
1
2
1
3
3
4
4
5
5
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
CODE 41 POSITION
2
6
7
8
y
6
7
8
9
CODE 42·MOVEMENT OF OBSERVER
X Variable
y
X
0
4
0 Wasn't moving
1 Was moving - stopped
2 Was moving - didn't stop
3
4
6
7
6
7
8
8
9 Other
9
1 In car
2 Outdoors
3 In plane
In building
5
y
5
291
QQDE 43 OBSERVATION METHOD
CODE 44 SOUND
Variable
X Variable
y
X
y
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Naked eye
Eye glasses
Window
Windshield
Binocular
Telescope
Theodolite
Radar
Photographic
Other
X Variable
y
0 Metallic
3
7
8
9
Red
Orange
Yellow
Green
Blue
Violet
Black
White
y
0
l
2
3
4
5
Variable
8
9 Other
CODE 47 LIGHT-COLOR
X
0- 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 - 6
6 - 7 - 10
9 - 31 or more
Variable
y
0 White
1 Black
2 Grey
3 Red
4 Orange
5 Yellow
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Violet
9 Other
CODE 49 SHAPE
•
Hovering, stationary
Less than 100 m.p.h.
100-400 m.p.h.
More than 400 m.p.h.
Meteor like
Not stated
6
7
5
6
7
8
9
7 - 11 - 20
8 - 20 - 30
CODE 48 SPEED
X
3
4
X
y
1 Light-glow-luminous
4
5
6
2
CODE 46 NUMBER
CODE 45 COLOR
2
Motors
Jet or rockets
Explosion
Unlike aircraft
Hiss, swishing, whining
Rumbling
Humming or buzzing
None
Not stated
Other
0
1
X Variable
y
0 Ellipse
l
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Rocket
Conventional aircraft
Unconventional aircraft
Meteor, comet
Lenticular
Conical
Tear drop
Flame, tails, fire
Other
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292
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CODE 50 SHAPE PARAMETER a/b
CODE 51 SUBTENDED VISUAL ANGLE
{Referred to sun diameter)
X - Decreased in size
y
0 - 0.1
l - 0.2
X - Variable
y
0 -
o.o
l - 0.05
2 - 0.1
3 - 0.2
4 - 0 •.3
2 -
5 - 0.5
5 - 1.5
6 - 0.75
6 - 2.0
7 - 0.9
7 - 4.0
8 - 1.0
9 - Other
8 - 4.0 to 10.0
9 - Other
CODE 52 LIGHT BRIGHTNESS (Intens.llzl
X Decreased
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CODE 53 ANGULAR VELOCITY
X Variable
y
y
0 Sunlight on mirror
l
0.5
.3 - o.75
4 ... 1.0
Zero
1 Very slow, 1° per second
2 Slow, .3° per second
.3 Moderate, 60 per second
4 Rapid, 12° per second
5 Very fast, 30° per second
6 Extremely fast, 900 per second
7 More than 900 per second
0
Sunlight on aluminum
Sunlight on plaster
Sunlight on stone
Sunlight on soil
Brighter than moon
Like moon
Duller than moon
Barely visible
Other
8
9 Other
CODE 54 ANGULAR ACCELERATION
CODE 55 APPEARANCE BEARING
(Change in Angular Velocity)
X Variable
X
y
y
0 - N
O Zero, v=constant
l Increasing slowly
2 Decreasing slowly
3 Increasing fast
4 Decreasing fast
5 Increasing very fast
6 Decreasing very fast
1 - NE
2 - E
3 - SE
4 - s
5 - SW
6-W
7 - NW
7
8
8
9
9
293
CODE 57-58 ELEVATION
WITH RESPECT TO GROUND. DEGREES
CODE 56 DISAPPEARANCE BEARING
X - Disappeared suddenly
y
0-N
l - NE
2 - E
Initi1l
X Variable
0 0-9
l 10-19
2 20-29
.3 .30-.39
4 40-49
5 50-59
6 60-69
7 70-79
8 80-89
0 0-9
l 10-19
2 20-29
.3 .30-.39
4 40-49
5 50-59
6 60-69
7 70-79
8 80-89
9
y
3 - SE
4-S
5 - SW
6-W
7 - NW
8
9
~
X Variable
9
CODE 61 OBJECT ORIENTATION
Apparent inclination of principal
..!!.!,s of object from horizontal
y
QODE 62-63-64 CIVILIAN OCCUPATION
X •Variable
Dictionary of Occupational Titles,
Vol. II, 2nd Edition, PP• XIX-XXVI.
u.s. Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security. U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D. C., 1949.
See PP• XIX-XXVI.
t
0 +90 to 60
l ..60 to 30
2 .+30 to 10
3 +10 to O
4 O
5 0 to -10
6 -10 to -30
7 -JO to -60
8 -60 to -90
9
CODE 65 SERVICE
X
X
y
0
1
2
.3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CODE 66 DUTY
y
Army
Navy
Marine
Air Force
Coast Guard
Merchant
Commercial Air
CAA
Gov•t. Contractor
Other
0
Pilot
1 Weather tech.
2 Radar tech.
3 Tower op.
4 Balloon obs.
5 Tech. spec.
6 Guards, lookouts
? Ground or deck crews
8 Navig. or bombardier
9 Other
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CODE 67 RANK EQUIVALENT
X Officer
y
0
1
2
J
4
5
6
7
8
9
Lt. 2nd
Lt. 1st
Capt.
Maj.
Lt. Col.
Col.
Brig. Gen.
Maj. Gen.
Lt. Gen.
General
CODE 76 EVALUATION OF OBSERVER RELIABILITY
X
y
0
1
2
J
4
5
6
7
Private
Private, 1st Cls.
Corp.
Serg.
S. 'I. Serg.
M. Serg.
Warrant Off.
Chief Warrant
8
9
CODE 77 EVALUATION OF REPORT RELIABILITY
X
y
0
1
2
J Doubtful
4 Poor
5 Not
6
7
8
9 Can't be judged
CODE 78 PREL,RgNARY IDEN'IIFICATION
X
y
0
Complete
Quite
Fair
3 Doubtful
4 Poor
5 Not
Possibly
Balloon
1 Astronomical
2 Aircraft
J Light phenomenon
4 Birds
5 Clouds, dust, etc.
6 Rocket or missile
7 Psychological manifestations
8 Electromagnetic phenomenon
9 Other
6
7
8
9 Can't be judged
CODE 79-80 FINAL IDENTIFICATION
X Probably
y
0 Balloon
l Astronomical
2 Aircraft
J Light Phenomenon
4 Birds
5 Clouds, dust, etc.
6 Reeke~-eP-mieeile Insufficientinformation
7 Psychological manifestations
8 i~ee~Femagaetie-paeaemeeeR Unknown
9 Other
I
I
X
y
0 Complete
1 Quite
2 Fair
295 and 296
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EXHIBIT B5
WORK SHEET
297 and 298
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WORK SHEET
Observer's
Data
Sheet
Question
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Code
Descri;etion
l*
3
Serial No.
Incident serial
number
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Serial No.
Insertion
2
4
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1.
Dal
Month
Year
13
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2.
3.
I
4.
,.
Observed
Day:
14
1
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25*
2
27
2*
Month
Re:eorted
Day
Month
Rec I d ATIC
Hrs.
Time of observation
Greenwich C. T.
Min.
Time Units
Duration of
observation
Duration
29
30
31
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Punched
Card
Column
Latitude
32*
33
34
Location
35
Longitude
36
37
38
39
~·
40
Cosine latitude
Denotes separate code key is needed.
299
Observer's
Data
Sheet
Question
Punched
Card
Column
Code
Description
6.
41*
Where observer was
_ __,,1,..,,._B_.____,..4~~,.,.....---------==M.-ovi_n~ - Stopped
43*
10.
How observed
Sound
Color
Number
Appearance
Light-color
Description
Speed
Shape
a/b
Size
Light brightness
Angular velocity
An ar acceleration Motion
Describe appearance
Describe disappearance
Initial elevation
Elevation
Final elevc:.tion
12a. 44*
12c. 45*
12e. 46*
12g. 47*
12b. 19
49*
12b. 19
50*
12d. lfie.20 51*
i2r. 14r. 5°2*
53*
4. 12h. 14. 18. 19 54*
1 .
13. 14. 16
*
17.
9
__l_,,2,;;.,;i,;...•~21.,...;....____6,.,,0_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _A,.,.1..,.t_itude, 1000 ft.
18. 19.
61*
Object orientation
2*
63
Altitude
Civilian occupation
64
Observer
Service occupation
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76-:;:.
Observer
"""'7"""7--~---------'""R"'"'e-pu:ct
7B*
Preliminary
Evaluation
Identification
Final
* Denotes separate code key is needed.
300
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EXHIBIT B6
CODES FOR CARD BIBLE
301 and 302
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CODES
CODE 1.
GENERAL
a. These cards (and the corresponding WORK SHEETS) contain data from
several sources. Columns referenced to the u. s. Air Force Technical
Information Sheet (Form A) must have at least one entry. If no data
are available for any column, the Y (or 12 punch) should be used.
b.
Columns 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45,
46, 47, 48, 49, 50, and $1 are calculated from data appearing in the
u. s. Air Force Technical Information Sheet {Form A). If the basic
data for these calculations are not available, the appropriate columns
are left blank.
c.
If a number in any column is used to enter data, then X (or 11 punch)
qualifies the data as indicated in the Code for the specific column,
CODE 7 SIGHTING IDENTIFICATION
{Ti.1is column may or may not
contain multiple punches)
CODE 22 LOCAL SUN TIME
(Refers to date of a.c.T. observation)
X
X
y
y
Same day
0
0
All sightings
2 Unit sightings, all observers
3 Unit sightings, single observers
4 Unit sightings, multiple observers
5 Object sightings
1 Previous day
2
3
1
4
5
7
8
6
7
8
9
9
6
CODE 23-26 LOCAL SUN TIME
{Calculated from G.C.T.,
date, latitude, and longitude)
CODE 27 LATITUDE
X South Latitude
y
CODE 31 LONGITUDE
X
y
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
5
4
5
6
6
7
7
8
9
303
8
9
East Longitude
U. s. Air Force Technical
Information Sheet Question
Punched
Card
Column
Code
Description
3
39
4q
41
42*
Hour
Angle
50
Angle of
Elevation
of the
Sun
Group Classification
sun
Bearing
Angle
52*
Time Units
43*
4~
45
46
47J,f-
48
49.
51*
Duration
of Observation
Group Classification
55*
s&
15.
How Observed
57~,f,
Sound
16a.
Object Color
16b.
SB-iiLight Color
Physical
16b. 17.
59*
------------~:,":'"'--------:c==-0-=1"'"0-r--,is-Gr-o-up
60*
Classification
Number
19.
61*
lla. llb. 39.
Sp
62*
6y1__1~7~•;,....;..l_B~._24~•;;.......,...-------,.:;'-----------,S~h-a.p_e__
Description
llf. 21. 22. 24.
Size
64*
10. lle.
Light Brightness
65*
66-ii5. 11, 17. 20.
Angular Velocity
Motion
33.
Angular Acceleration
67*
29. 31, 1.
68*
Appearance Bearing
Disappearance Bearing
69*
Initial Elevation
70*
Final Elevation
Description
11~1rientation
*
73➔1Maneuvers
Observer Occupation
41.
74*
Observer
Rating
Observer
75*
Report Rating
7&.Reliability Group
77*
Classification
Final Identification
78-if
5.
3
54
* Denotes that separate code key is needed.
304
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CODE 48-51 SUN BEARING ANGLE
(Calculated)
CODE 51 SUN BEARING ANGLE
CODE 47 GROUP CLASSIFICATION
(Derived from the angle of elevation)
X East of the Meridian
X
y
y
0
0
l -79,99° to+ 79.99°
2 +80,00° to +89,99°
3 +90,00° to +100.00°
4 +100,01° to 130.00°
5 +130.01° to +180,00 and -180,00° to -100,01°
6 -100.00° to -90.01°
7 -90.00° to -80,00°
8
1
2
9
CODE 52 DURATION Tl1'iE UNITS
4
5
6
7
8
9
CODE 55 DURATION GROUP CLASSIFICATION
X
X
y
0 5 second and less
l 6 - 10 seconds
2 11 - 30 seconds
3 31 - 60 seconds
4 61 seconds - 5 minutes
5 6 - 30 minutes
6 Over 30 minutes
y
0 Days
1 Hours
2 Minutes
3 Seconds
4
5
6
7
8
7
8
9
9
CODE 56 OBSERVATION METHOD
X Variable
y
0
3
Naked eye
1 Eye glasses
2 Window
3 Windshield
4 Binocular
5 Telescope
6 Theodolite
7 Radar
8 Photographic
9 Other
CODE 57 SOUND
X Variable
y
0 Motors
1 Jets or rockets
2 Explosion
3 Unlike aircraft
4 Hiss, swishing, whining
5 Rumbling
6 Humming or buzzing
7 None
8
9 Other
305
CODE 58 OBJECT COLOR
X Variable
y
0 Metallic
1 Light., glow., luminous
2 Red
3 Orange
4 Yellow
5 Green
6 Blue
7 Violet
8 Black
9 White
CODE 59 LIGHT COLOR
CODE 60 COLOR GROUP CLASSIFICATION
X Variable
y
0 White
1 Black
2 Grey
3 Red
4 Orange
5 Yellow
6 Green
7 Blue
8 Violet
9 Other
X Light glow
y
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Variable
4
5
Other
9
0
1
2
3
6
7
8
Ellipse
Rocket
Conventional aircraft
Unconventional aircraft
Meteor, comet
Lenticular
Conical
Teardrop
Flame, t ails, fire
Fire
CODE 65 LIGHT BRIGHTNESS (Intensity)
0
1
1
2
2 .3
3 4
4 5
5 6
6 7 -10
1 11-20
8 21-30
9 31 or more
CODE 64 SUBTENDED VISUAL ANGLE
(Referred to sun diameter)
X Variable
y
Hovering, stationary
Less than 100 mph
100 - 400 mph
More than 400 mph
Meteor-like
Not stated
X
y
White
Metallic
Red
Orange
Yellow
Green
Blue
Violet
Black
Other
CODE 63 SHAPE
CODE 62 SPEED
CODE 61 NUNBER
X Decreased in size
y
0 0.1
1 0.2
2 o.5
3 0.15
4 1.0
5 1.5
6 2.0
7 4.o
8
4.0 to 10.0
9 Other
CODE 66 ANGULAR VELOCITY
X Decreased
X Variable
y
y
0 Sunlight on mirror
l Sunlight on aluminum
2 Sunlight on plaster
3 Sunlight on stone
4 Sunlight on soil
5 Brighter than moon
6 Like moon
7 Duller than moon
8 Barely visible
9 Other
O Zero
1 Very slow, 1° per second
2 Slow, 3° per second
3 Moderate, 6° per second
4 Rapid, 12° per second
5 Very fast, 30° second
6 Extremely fast, 90° per second
7 More than 90° per second
8
9 Other
306
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CODE 67 ANGULAR ACCELERATION
CODE 68 APPBARJ:J TCE BEARING
(Change in angular velocity)
1
X Variable
X
y
y
0
O N
l NE
Zero, V • constant
l Increasing slowly
2 Decreasing slowly
3 Increasing fast
4 Decreasing fast
5 Increasing very fast
6 Decreasing very fast
7
8
9
2
3 SE
4 s
5 SW
6 W
7 NW
8
9
CODE 70-71 ELEVATION
WITH RESPECT TO GROUND 1 DEGREES
CODE 69 DISAPPEARANCE BEARING
X
Disappeared suddenly
y
0
N
l
Ne
2
E
3 Se
4 s
5 SW
w
6
7 NW
8
9
CODE 72
Initial
Final
X Variable
y
X Variable
y
0 0-9
l 10-19
2 20-29
3 30-39
4 40-49
5 50-59
6 60-69
7 70-79
8 80-89
0
1
2
3
4
9
9
5
6
7
8
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
OBJECT ORIENTATION
Apparent inclination of principal
axis of object from horizontal CODE 73 MANEUVERS
X Variable
y
0 +90° to 60°
l +60° to 30°
2 +30° to 10°
3 +10° to 0°
4 oo
5 OQ to -10°
6 -10° to -30°
7 -30° to -60°
-60° to -90°
9
8
E
X
y
0
l
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
307
CODE 74 OBSERVER OCCUPATION
X
Y Civilian, occupation r.ot stated
O Army, military
l NavY, military
2 Marine, military
3 Air force, military
4 Coast guard, military
5 Merchant marine, military
6 Commercial air, civilian
7 CAA, civilian
8 Government contractor, civilian
9 Civilian, other
DE 75 EVALU.aTiot! OF OBSERV};R a:~LIABILITY
CODE 76 EVALUA'rION OF RSPORT RELIABILITY
X
y
X
y
0 Complete
l
2
3
4
5
Complete
Quite
Fair
3 Doubtful
4 Poor
5 Not
0
1
2
Quite
Fair
Doubtful
Poor
Not
I
6
6
7
8
9 Cannot be judged
7
8
9 Cannot be judged
CODE 77 RELllBILITY GROUP CLASSIFICATION
(Based on observer and report ratings)
Excellent (Observer O or 1 and Reoort O or 1)
Good (Observer O or 1, Report 2, 3, or 4;
Observer 2, 3, or 4, Report O or l; Observer
2, Report 2)
Doubtful (Observer O or 1, Report 5 or 9;
Observer 2, Report 3, 4, S, or 9; Observer
3 or 4, Report 2, 3, 4, S, or 9; Observer S
or 9, Report o, 1, 2, 3, or 4)
Poor (Observer 5, 9, or Y, Report 5, 9, or Y)
CODE 78 FINAL IDENTIFICATION
X Probably
y
0 Balloon
1 Astronomical
2 Aircraft
3 Light phenomenon
4 Birds
5 Clouds, dust, etc.
6 Insufficient information
7 Psychological manifestations
8 Unknown
9 Other
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308
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EXHIBIT B7
CARD BIBLE
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309 and 310
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CARD BIBLE
u. s. Air Force Technical
Information Sheet Question
Punched
Card
Column
1
2
Serihl
No.
3
4
5
Sub
Serial No.
Sighting
6
8
Serial
9
10
11
12
1.
Description
Code
No.
Identification
Serial
Number
Identification
Incident
Serial
Number
Day
13
:i1
15
Month
17
Year
19
20
21
Hours
Time of
Observation
Greenwich
Minutes
C. T•
23
24
Hours
Local
Sun
Time
Observed
1
18
Key
26
Minutes
27*
28.
29
30
3Hr
4.
Latitude
Location
32
Longitude
33.
34
35
3~
Regional Area
Strategic Area
31
~" Denotes that separate code key is needed.
Card Deck No._ is identified by an X (or 11 Punch) in Column_.
311
I
U. s. Air Force Technical
Infonnation Sheet Question
Punched
Card
Column
Code
Description
3
39
4q
Hour
41
Angle
43*
Angle of
Elevation
of the
42*
~
46
Sun
Group Classification
sun
Bearing
Angle
Time Units
Duration
of Observation
Group Classification
How Observed
Sound
Object Color
Light Color
Physical
___
oup
54
l.5.
5.si
56i
16a.
57*
16b.
58-ii16b.
17.
59"______......________
__.6r!◊*,..--------c-01;.;..o-r_Gr
19.
lla. llb. 39.
17. lB. 24.
61*
62*
63-lf,
10, lle.
5. 11, 17. 20.
33.
29. 31. 1.
23. JO, 31. 2.
31 • 32 •
65*
Classification
Number
Speed
Shape
Description
--=it"':::1,..,1:~.~21=-.----:2~2~.--:s24r-.-----~6"4-*--------=s-=-i--ze_ __
41.
Light Brightness
Angular Velocity
Motion
Angular Acceleration
Appearance Bearing
Disappearance Bearing
Initial Elevation
Final Elevation
Description
Orientation
Maneuvers
Observer Occupation
Observer Rating
Observer
Report Rating
Reliability Group
Classification
Final Identification
66-ii-
67*
68i
69-ii'.
7◊*
71*
72*
73*
74*
7$i
7&t77*
78-ii-
* Denotes that separate code key is needed.
312
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EXHIBIT B8
EXAMPLE OF AN IBM CARD
313 and 314
---------------------~
~
~
Q
c
c
er
.,
2.
Observed
~
z- c t-·
3
~
~
Lati-
co
~
tude
G C
g.
Cl
00ct
.,
'<~a
~
Duration
Eleva•
of Obser-
f
::,a:ii
-·
0
t1on o .
-
n
the Sun
•
""
~
g
.
vat1on
O::I:C'l
r
►
CD
;:- cg
::,
o ~ ~ o ~ ~
,.
::,
g II'" ui" 0
.g ~ Cl i ! ~
CD
<1
~
g
1
~
:
__
c
IT
-·-
0.
ii·g.:
.:t'"<
~
:?.:,
;
i"
-g
g::.
c:i·
!-
m :c <11: :10,
Q"0
..
-· ► a
"'nil<,.~~C:
3:" n :, o
!- :,
O
•DOJ
c,Cc
:o""
111
if
::i" 0
3CO
~g_c
:;;
"'!;
~
:son:!.
_.OC'l
CDCO
(DC
'E!E._
i!:
sE
Ill
O
~
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